Earliest Possible defeat of Hitler?

What is the earliest POD that could result in the defeat of Nazi Germany. With the War starting on September 1st, 1939 what is the earliest POD that could result in Nazi defeat?
 
What is the earliest POD that could result in the defeat of Nazi Germany. With the War starting on September 1st, 1939 what is the earliest POD that could result in Nazi defeat?

For a certain value of defeat: 1940, the plane with the orders isn't forced to land in Belgium, the conventional attack plan isn't ditched in favour of the push through Ardennes, the Wehrmacht runs into prepared defenses, the attack gets blunted and stops. Result: probably WW1.1, rinse and repeat. The economic structure of Nazi germany wouldn't hold this for more than a few months.

If you want even earlier, have France put more power into Saar offensive during the fighting in Poland. The Poland campaign exhausted almost the entire German ammunition stock - if the French opened a 2nd front seriously, the Wehrmacht would be quickly reduced to using their guns to deal out blunt trauma.
 
1940...

Pick one of two:

1. France launches a serious offensive against Germany before May.

2. Germany does not switch its shwerpunkt from Belgium too the Ardenne's and the Western Allies actually learn from what happened in Poland.
 
So if France launches the Saar offensive what will the terms of peace be? As harsh as they were in 1945, I would find it hard to believe that Germany would receive as hard a penalty. Also what happens to Soviet held Poland?
 
I don't understand the question. The earliest POD that could result in the defeat of Nazi Germany is... infinitely early. Germany will be defeated without any POD.
 
Assuming you meant the post-September 1, 1939 POD that would lead to the earliest defeat of Nazi Germany, excluding extremely contrived POD like a large asteroid hitting downtown Berlin on September 2...

Suppose either the British or French warned the Polish government that they were planning on adopting a defensive stance in the West rather than quickly going on the offensive as the Polish warplans assumed. If the Polish government knew from the start how hopeless their situation was, could they realistically have cut a deal with Stalin to convince him to renounce the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact and come in on the Polish side?
 
If the Polish government knew from the start how hopeless their situation was, could they realistically have cut a deal with Stalin to convince him to renounce the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact and come in on the Polish side?

No. There was only about 1 week between the signing of the M-R Pact and the German invasion. Stalin had made the decision that Hitler would make a better partner than the West. He is not going to change his mind in that week. Hitler has given him a free hand in the territories of the former Russian Empire not currently in the USSR: a lot of gain at very little cost. The only thing Poland or the West can give him is war with Germany: zero gain at a high cost.
 
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