Earliest possible date for the first manned space flight?

No 1st or 2nd World Wars would really help. If you manage to divert the national rivalries of the still strong Great Powers into a multinational space race then you could see substantial acceleration of research.
 
The A9 Amerika Bombaer would have techinically been a spaceflight even if it was a suicide mission. Maybe if the A9 was fastr in coming into service and the war in Europe lasts a few months later you could hav a German in space by 1945 or 6.
 
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