Earliest possible date for the first manned space flight?

What's the PoD?

I mean, squeezing things to appear 20 years earlier isn't hard if you can start with a PoD of 1776.

Throw in a few small changes, a bit of wanking on the sides: Get the USA to hit Newfoundland and Halifax in the ARW and then take it as a 14th Colony, have the war of 1812 not fought against the UK but against Spain--and have the USA grab Florida, Cuba, and Puerto Rico. Force the UK to concede all of Oregon Territory to the USA; have the USA annex Mexico, make the Civil War end in 1863 after McCllelan's Pennisula Campaign succeeds while Robert E. Lee is consigned to a desk and never sees any actual field command.

This is a LOT of wanking going into the formation of the United States. With an increased need for immigrants, an even faster growth rate owing to still greater industrialization, the United States continues its breakneck Economic Growth from the 1860s straight into the 1930s, where the Albertan frontier is finally closed.

Given that the USA's resources are increased 50% and its economic power is perhaps doubled due to greater development, the USA would have an even greater population to become brilliant scientists, and so you can kick technological development ahead by perhaps 25 years.

Then, with this wanked USA, you explore the concept of space travel and find that it is really within the reach of technology. 30 years of rocket development, starting in 1890---this puts you at about a 1920s Target for a launch, but the USA would have roughly 1950s technology at this point.
 

Nietzsche

Banned
What's the PoD?

I mean, squeezing things to appear 20 years earlier isn't hard if you can start with a PoD of 1776.

Throw in a few small changes, a bit of wanking on the sides: Get the USA to hit Newfoundland and Halifax in the ARW and then take it as a 14th Colony, have the war of 1812 not fought against the UK but against Spain--and have the USA grab Florida, Cuba, and Puerto Rico. Force the UK to concede all of Oregon Territory to the USA; have the USA annex Mexico, make the Civil War end in 1863 after McCllelan's Pennisula Campaign succeeds while Robert E. Lee is consigned to a desk and never sees any actual field command.

This is a LOT of wanking going into the formation of the United States. With an increased need for immigrants, an even faster growth rate owing to still greater industrialization, the United States continues its breakneck Economic Growth from the 1860s straight into the 1930s, where the Albertan frontier is finally closed.

Given that the USA's resources are increased 50% and its economic power is perhaps doubled due to greater development, the USA would have an even greater population to become brilliant scientists, and so you can kick technological development ahead by perhaps 25 years.

Then, with this wanked USA, you explore the concept of space travel and find that it is really within the reach of technology. 30 years of rocket development, starting in 1890---this puts you at about a 1920s Target for a launch, but the USA would have roughly 1950s technology at this point.
Wouldn't it be more likely that a German Space Program starts up sooner if you have them win WW1? I say this because in 1900s Germany, rockets were big. Lots of public support/interest and lots of very intelligent men putting their hat in the ring. With a victorious Deutschland, might you see a manned space flight by 1940 or so? Yours is earlier by 20 years, but this one seems more likely(less butterflies).
 
well since this is in the after 1900 forum, then I'm guessing that the POD would be in the 20th century. If you can get somebody in the war department at or slightly before the start of WWII to recognize the importance of rockets as a weapon of war. So you get Robert Goddard working with some serious funding as early as perhaps 1939. Maybe working military prototypes by '41, then maybe ship mounted missiles on USN vessels by early '42. the war ends as per OTL or maybe a bit earlier and then get government support for a space program after the war and then have some unmanned flights by '49 ot '50 and an actual manned mission as early as 1950 or 1951.
 
Seeing as this is in the after 1900 board, I'm assuming the POD is Jan 1, 1901.

So, Either Germany invests in rockets before World War 1 or the Nazis win World War II and invest in manned spaceflight to demonstrate the superiority of the aryan race for propaganda. With World War 1, I assume spaceflight by 1930s without a depression, 1940s with. With Nazi victory, before 1955.
 
I think you could start around 1830 and "tweek forward" developments in chemistry, electricity and metallurgy. Start with this example. Nitroglycerine was invented around 1850, yet it was not stabilized into dynamite until 1869. Bring out dynamite in 1855. Consider what happens with railroad construction, and eventually warfare. [I would rather not dewll on the Civil War in this discussion; let's say it might have been shorter in duration.]

In 1850, the field of engineering was not distinct from surveying, hydrology and architecture. By 1910, engineering was defined in four discrete disciplines. You have a world with few major wars in this period; introduce technological developments one by one and share them in an international pool. Give Thomas Edison a little competition. Make Nichola Tesla a sound manager of money and resources.
 
Post-1900 POD right?

A uber-nationalist/fascist German regime which is more like Mussolini's Italy than Hitler's playpen could conceivably attempt a sub-orbital shot for propaganda purposes by 1950 or so.

This assumes that this German regime isn't going to get involved in any major wars or perhaps any wars at all. It rearms naturally, but generally makes a lot of noise, wrangles for border adjustments at summit meetings, and maybe still has an anschluss with Austria.

Such a regime would fund for propaganda purposes all sorts of programs and avenues of research that other nations wouldn't even consider. The 1920s "rocket club" Willy Ley and so many others belonged to (von Braun joined much later) would be just the ticket. Government funding could be minor at first until the successes began. The OTL club accomplished quite a lot with very little money, their biggest bit of official support came in permission to use an abandoned artillery range for testing engines and launching rockets.

Once the club handed the government a few talking points, sounding rockets with cameras and the like, funding and other types of support would be increased. The fact that there could be military applications wouldn't hurt either. I can easily see a series of alt-V2 launches involving instrument packages at first, followed by dogs and chimps, and culminating in a manned suborbital "hop".

Just where such a program would launch it's big stuff from is an interesting question too. How about Italian Somalia? That should give TTL's Britain fits.


Bill
 

Keenir

Banned
the first manned rocket flight was at Galata Tower, Constantinople, late 1400s, actually.
 
everybody always thinks that the germans are the most likely candidate for early spaceflight, but in reality goddard was further ahead than they were. the main difference was that the Reich put a lot more resources behind their own rocket programs while the US government gave goddard almost no funding, in fact the US government put no real effort into rocketry until well after the war.

Another problem with the German rocketry wank is that the germans only threw so much into their rocket efforts IOTL was because of the desperate condition of the war. So if the Germans were more well off than in RL then they wouldn't have as much incentive to try and build wonder weapons (i.e. rockets.) So a victorious central powers hardly means that the Germans develope advanced rocketry any sooner than it was developed OTL. Actually the bigger you make the V program, the less resources you have for more conventional weapons which actually had an impact on the war, as such the germans are even more likely to lose the war faster, so that would nip the cause of rocketry right in the bud.
 
?Didn't Whe have a "Louis Armstrong on the Moon" Thread here a while back.?

Absent Well's Cavorite, or Vernes Super Gun Approach, Whe are stuck with Rockets, which requires certain Advancements in Technology, which limit you to about 50 years sooner than OTL.
 
everybody always thinks that the germans are the most likely candidate for early spaceflight, but in reality goddard was further ahead than they were.


Dan,

Goddard did have a lead for a while, but Germamy's "VfR", or "Spaceflight Society", caught up with and surpassed him early on, especially once they began corresponding with each other.

The VfR was founded in 1927, before the Nazi era, and received little funding that wasn't private. With Oberth and others as members, the VfR had a wonderful PR touch. For example, they were able to acquire an old weapons test range near Berlin very cheaply thanks to intercession by a supporter. They did approach the German Army for funding in '32, but eventually chose to not to accept it and disbanded instead.

... the main difference was that the Reich put a lot more resources behind their own rocket programs while the US government gave goddard almost no funding...

That's true, but by the early 30s the designs launched by the VfR were equal to Goddard's thanks to public donations. Goddard worked far too secretly and, more importantly, essentially worked alone. Goddard had assistants while the VfR had several engineers, publicists, and men of other professions as active members.

Another problem with the German rocketry wank is that the germans only threw so much into their rocket efforts IOTL was because of the desperate condition of the war. So if the Germans were more well off than in RL then they wouldn't have as much incentive to try and build wonder weapons (i.e. rockets.)

You're ignoring the many technological and scientific projects the Reich funded during the 1930s for purely propaganda purposes. The Zeppelin Company wouldn't have flown Graf Zeppelin, Hindenburg, and GF II if not for government subsidies. Rockets could have easily been on that list.

Actually the bigger you make the V program, the less resources you have for more conventional weapons which actually had an impact on the war...

Why are you assuming a Second World War occurs at all? The POD only has to be post-1900, nothing more.


Bill
 
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I'd have to give it to Goddard as German support for their programme was tied up with Versailles etc. So without Versailles etc the Germans probably wouldn't have had a reasonable programme, and with Versailles you get WW2 etc which isn't the best environment for early manned space activity.

However Goddard did his thing without political prodding, so the PoD only needs to be giving him support and going mainstream. His programme could be expanded pre-war, drastially expanded during the war and postwar be ready to go manned in the mid 50s.
 
well I'm not going to bother quoting you're whole message Bill, so I'm just going to respond.

Alright, I'll grant you the point about the germans catching up to goddard, but again, the real difference maker for them was still government funding. Even with the additional skilled personell, without government backing the germans arent going to be getting into space very quickly or at all, same thing goes for Goddard. Besides the OP was asking for the earliest possible manned spaceflight, and since Goddard was the most advanced early on he is your most likely candidate to get your earliest possible manned space flight, not the Germans, this is of course ignoring the other stipulation that the country involved be either the US or USSR. You mentioned big expensive projects like the Graf Zepplin and Hindenburg, as well as butterflying away WWII. The problem is, without the Nazi party in power in germany the weimar republic is not very likely to fund big expensive projects like a rocket program or massive zepplins, and since having the nazi's almost guarantees the start of WWII, then you most likely wouldn't have a government funded rocket project if there was no WWII. And of course resources thrown at rocketry can't be thrown at something like tanks or bombers or the navy, so you get a less successful wermacht and a quicker defeat for the Germans in WWII and thus an abrupt end to a german rocket program. Also I'm not entirely sure that Germany under the Kaiser would be willing to fund something as oddball as rockets, but that could be debated.

Now it's always possible that you could have a POD where a guy is born or doesn't die who invents like 6 things 30 years early which allows for spaceflight way ahead of schedule in china or turkey or something, but I tend to think that most people would consider that to be ASB. The problem with throwing out really early POD's is that the further you get from it, the more the TL is based upon conjecture and guesswork than actual facts. So a POD in 1901 leaves too much to chance to avoid delving into making things up as you go along. As such Goddard is your most likely source of early space flight without delving into massive amounts of conjecture and creative fiction. This is why I think works like Peshawar Lancers and the Draka TL are more or less pure fiction, albiet with some elements of alternate history but really there is very little historical basis for those works.
 
well I'm not going to bother quoting you're whole message Bill, so I'm just going to respond.


Dan,

I'm not going to bother to quote your entire message either. Instead, let me suggest you read Willy Ley's Rockets, Missiles, and Men in Space to get a better picture of the actual situation.

Ley was a founding member of the VfR which, as I wrote, never receive any government funding and which, as I wrote, either equaled or excelled Goddard's work by the early 1930s. Ley also left Germany due to the Nazis in 1935, so the book wasn't written by someone like von Braun who would need to downplay their involvement in various Nazi weapons programs.

As I wrote in my first post, a German government, or any government, needn't be Nazis to fund scientific and technological programs for propaganda purposes. The POD here only needs to be post-1900. There could very well be no First World War, let alone a Versailles treaty and all the rest. Also many of the men involved in the VfR were born before 1900 as were the French and Russian theorists who sparked their imaginations.

Goddard was a genius and developed many things before anyone else. Goddard wasn't the only genius fascinated by rockets however and many of those other people had access to more, non-governmental funding and collaborated with other more than Goddard did.

What I'm trying to say is that this POD needn't be as dependent to the Nazi V-programs as you seem to believe it must.


Bill
 
I don't think you're getting me. The thing is, rocket research could very well produce some very good prototypes and pioneer some very advanced research, but you aren't going to get any early manned space flight without the massive investment of funding, resources and manpower like you got IOTL. Sure you could butterfly away WWI, but if you go that far back and make changes that drastic, you could easily butterfly away other things too, including rocket programs in Germany, the US, Britain, etc. Besides I don't see a government investing the capitol needed for a space program without a genuine percieved need for a space program, whether it be a war or an arms race. I'm not disputing the fact that German rocket programs didn't get government funding early on, what I am saying is that without government funding they arent going to get a man into space earlier than in OTL.

You can choose to effectively rewrite the entire 20th century if you like, but you're more or less moving into the perview of fiction. Also eliminating WWI means you still get a kaiser running the show in Germany, and I just don't think that the Kaiser's germany is going to fund something as "outside the box" as rocketry was at the time. I was trying to push the cause of manned space flight ahead of schedule without having to rewrite massive portions of the timeline.
 
I don't think you're getting me.


Dan,

Actually, I don't think we're getting each other.

You specifically kept bringing up the Nazis so I kept pointing to the vague requirements of a post-1900 POD. Does that mean Kaiser Bill has to slips on the soap January 1st, 1901 or that everything has to go the same up until September 1st, 1939? Nope. A workable timeline could very fall somewhere in between.

Also, I only keep mentioning Germany because of the OTL level of interest and engineering skills. This timeline needn't involve Germany at all.

The thing is, rocket research could very well produce some very good prototypes and pioneer some very advanced research, but you aren't going to get any early manned space flight without the massive investment of funding, resources and manpower like you got IOTL.

The thing is you could replace the one-ton warhead of V2 with something that could hold a dog, chimp, or man and attempt a sub-orbital "hop" as long as you didn't much care about survival rates. That's why I keep harping on prestige, propaganda projects. The USSR put Gagarin in orbit with nothing approaching the level of "technological certainty" the US required for it's manned launches.

Besides I don't see a government investing the capitol needed for a space program without a genuine percieved need for a space program, whether it be a war or an arms race.

Spoken like a true child of the 20th Century and it's war both hot and cold. Humanity has had other vital needs, needs that didn't involve wars or arms races. Do you think Chartres was built to spot trebuchet rounds? ;)

You can choose to effectively rewrite the entire 20th century if you like, but you're more or less moving into the perview of fiction.

A post-1900 POD, that's all. Given the butterflies, a 1-1-1900 POD might as well be fiction by the time 1-1-1950 rolls around.


Bill
 
A POD of circa 1901 makes the task difficult, given the backlog of yet-to-be applied technology in the consumer spectrum. This includes the defining elements of 20th century living: electricity, telephones, motorized vehicles, gas utilities, indoor plumbing, sewers, etc. To get industry and governments to invest in rocket science would be difficult, so we need a private sector incentive.

Nicola Tesla, circa 1900, envisioned the earth, viewed from outer space, would have a Saturn-like ring over the equator, satellites in synchronous orbit to bounce radio signals. He made this statement before the Wright Brothers ever took off the ground.

With the radio transmission coil and AC induction motor on his resume, Tesla practically defined electrical engineering. Unfortunately, Tesla could not manage money and was forever broke. Suppose Tesla was a good money manager. Suppose he takes the resources from his many inventions and directs them to a goal: rocket science that will put a Sputnik in orbit by 1930.

It would take a team to do the work, and perhaps another person (or two) of the caliber of Robert Goddard. At the risk of sounding overly speculative, suppose a Dr. X misses the boat as the Titanic departs and emerges as a rocket scientist.

When a launch is finally made, governments start looking and a quest for a military/industrial space program helps lessen the impact of the Great Depression.
 
IMHO I would say could move it up by 20-25 years at the most. So much would have to be in place besides just the right rockets (life support, computing power in real time etc) that too many ASBs involved. IF in 1920's USA got involved big time in supporting Goddard, perhaps being seen as an advanced coastal defense and another way to have an isolationist foreign policy, given how much more $$ the USD would have to throw at this and greater industrial potential etc (even with depression), then the US could be at V2 level by 1939, early development of a "rocket plane". IMHO X-15 like program might be more successful for manned flight than capsule, especially for sub orbital or low orbit at first.

So...could see suborbital X-15 type by end of WW2 (use B-24 for carrier or B-29), and Mercury typr program late 40's early 50's.
 
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