Earliest Possible Canadian Confederation?

Seems like a good topic for Canada Day. Like the title says, what is the earliest that the original provinces could be united as a single self-governing entity?
 
Presuming no major butterflies earlier in time (such as the ARW fails, British War of 1812 victory or British take all of Oregon Country) then the earliest date would likely be the late 1840's when the crown was granting Responsible government to its NA colonies.
 
Very interesting, Lord Grattan and ryackov. Actually, I'm thinking of using Britain taking all of the Oregon Country as the POD for my first timeline. How would the butterflies from that change things?
 
If Britain does slightly worse in the War of 1812 it could happen fairly quickly.
If more battles in the colonies had Americans getting tactical victories but strategically very little, it would end up with a lot more Upper and Lower towns destroyed, but Britain would still be able to keep sending in supplies and soldiers.
So at the bargaining table, Britain may have to make a few more political and trade concessions, but not give away any land.
In Upper and Lower Canada where the fighting occurred, the people left homeless, with ruined land, and dead fathers and sons, would be very upset with the US for causing all the devastation, and Britain for doing poorly. Thus Upper and Lower Canada could become much more defensive, and militant. Nothing stupid like revolting against Britain or demanding an attack on the US, but a stronger militia, closer ties between the two colonies with feelers in the Maritimes, as well as trying to industrialize more quickly to build the guns, and gunpowder they need to defend themselves.
This would rack up the debt but the colonial government would probably accept it.
At the same time the biggest problem with Canada has always been a small population. So the colonial government of Upper Canada could try to lure more immigrants from Britain and Scotland over the next decade or two, using the same lure it had previously used to get American immigrants, free land.
Lower Canada being French would refuse to do this, although they may try to get some Acadians to return from the US.
With more industrialization, and more money going around, it would likely keep more Canadians from going to the US for work.
This would help the two Canada's to increase their population.

Over the next decade the two Canada's become a success story (with high debt but that is usually ignored until it becomes too large to pay off). As more immigrants go into Upper Canada with promises of free land, and no 'savage' :rolleyes: Indians, the citizens start demanding more good land from Britain.
Britain afraid of giving the Canada's too much power gives some land from OTL Northern Ontario, land that is virtually useless at that time.
Not a good idea.
Canadians already unsatisfied with the British response, begin to demand more control of their affairs. Lower and Upper Canada leaders sign deals to join their two colonial parliaments in everything but name. (Note this is not responsible government, the Governer General still has ultimate authority, and the parliament has very little power, but it is the image that is important)
Britain realizing it has a problem, agrees to the various demands, and buys some of the land from the Hudson Bay company in OTL Manitoba, and Northern Quebec. Quickly placing it under control of the two Canada's.
This eases the tension in the Canada's but causes problems in the Maritimes.
The Maritime colonies see the growing power of the Two Canada's and worry about becoming marginalized. They follow the lead of the Two Canada's and Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and P.E.I. sign agreements that make them a single colonial parliament in all but name.

By this time, late 1820's, Upper and Lower Canada are buying a large amount of coal from Nova Scotia, and unlike OTL a group of the richer Family Compact and Chateau Clique members in both Canada's buy a number of the coal mines before the British General Mining Association buys all of them.
This gives the Two Canada's a major pull in Nova Scotia.
In the 1830's Britain is unsure what to do with its North American colonies. The two largest colonies are demanding more and more soldiers, as they fear a fast growing United States. Yet they are buying less and less from Britain as the colonists are becoming fiercely independent due to large scale propaganda from some of the richest families. British politicians are quietly recalling the American Revolution whenever talk of the colonies come up.
At the same time the Maritime colonies despite being more restful are seeing how well the Two Canada's are doing and are starting to demand the same. With the strong economic pressure coming from the Two Canada's more and more of the Maritime citizens are looking inland for trade rather then Britain.
Things finally come to a head, when the Upper and Lower parliament vote to join together under a single parliament with the federal capital in the city of Hull.
The governer generals of both colonies do not support or refuse the bill, being unsure if this is actually allowed, causing a crisis in the Two Canada's. They desperately sent a request to Britain, while attempting to keep everything calm.
Riots and demonstrations began throughout the Two Canada's, but rather than demanding Britain out, the majority simply demand more say in internal affairs.
Britain sends a message back as quickly as it can, and tells the Governer Generals to support the motion before things worsen.
In 1832 the two Canada's join as one colony under the name of Canada with a single Governer General, and a single joint legislative assembly. In this TL the population between Lower and Upper Canada is much more equal. Also because of the more nationalistic nature of the Family Compact and the Chateau Clique the government doesn't hate each other quite as much. Also with an expanded Upper Canada, the politics of Upper Canada is more fragmented letting the French feel more in control of the situation than OTL.
The Maritimes politely request the same deal. In 1834 they become the Maritime Confederation.

With the new joint government even though its every move could be met by a veto by the Governer General, government spending increases. Trade within Canada, and between Canada and the Maritime Confederation, Britain and the US increases drastically. The Maritime Confederation tries to compete with Canada, but due to smaller population, and limited resources finds itself falling behind, and being dominated by Britain, the US, and Canada.
Finally in 1838 with mounting debt, and economic pressure from Canada, the Maritime Confederation asks to join Canada as a single colony.
Canada at the same time bribes, begs and threatens as many politicians in Britain as it can reach to remove some of the constraints in the British colonies.
Hearing reports of hundreds of newspaper editorials, rallies and speeches demanding a more equal Canada, Britain sends Lord Durham to investigate. After a year of work, Lord Durham sends a report back to England recommending Responsible government much as in OTL.
In 1840 after much discussion and fighting, Canada and the Maritime Confederacy join together in the Confederacy of Canada, and have Responsible Government.

Please note, in this Alt history the Family Compact and the Chateau Clique are much less pro Britain due to wide spread destruction in both Canada's during the War of 1812, caused many of them to lose a lot of money, and blame Britain for not sending enough troops or better leaders.
Also I wrote this in about an hour, so please be kind to any mistakes.
 
Last edited:
Well, the American Revolution was caused partly by increased taxes, which were partly caused by the cost of sending Redcoats to chase after Redskins.
 
Top