Earliest Possible ACW?

When is the earliest possible time period that a full-fledged shooting war between the equivalent of the Union and the Confederacy could occur? To be considered an alt-analogue of the ACW, the following criteria should be met: secession must be attempted, the existence of a separate "Southern" nationality should be a mainstay of the conflict, hostilities must last at least three years and affect the USA at large, and the situation must be ambiguous enough that at one point a foreign nation at least discretely supports the secessionists.

The scenario I'm envisioning with this is the creation of a Western Confederacy by refugees from the war. I'm looking for something like Deseret, where an organized migration creates a state based on ideological principles, in this case, alt-Confederates that keep the fight alive. I want to speed up the ACW for this because by the 1860s, railroads were keeping the West together, and the lawlessness and desolation of the frontier in earlier decades were coming to an end.

My precedents are Texas, California, and Deseret, all three of which were independent countries proclaimed by American settlers. This "Western Cofederacy" doesn't necessarily have to survive to modern day, but it would be interesting to see it stick around long enough to have a permanent effect on Westward Expansion and the politics and demographics of the settled region, whether it be Texas, the Great Basin, California, the Southwest, etc.

What do y'all think, is this workable? And if so, what POD and sequence of events could get us there?
 
1830s, I think? Though making the fighting last 3 years or more is the hard part. It would be much harder for the North to recapture the seceded states prior to the invention of the railroad. I can see people just giving the Union up for dead after a year or two of battles. Maybe sporadic border fighting could go on past 3 years.
 
If you butterfly away the war of 1812 (tricky but doable) and bring amicable relations with Britain, the Union might be comfortable enough in its geopolitical security that it'll start fighting and break down after perhaps two generations, so that's the late '20s to early '30s. It would require a series of real interstate blunders, and a bigger question of states' rights. Perhaps a different interpretation of the constitution becomes popular, post-adoption?

In any case, this would be before the advent of long-range rail transport, and it would resemble the Revolutionary War in many aspects.

In such a scenario, it's possible that the US would fragment into more than two pieces. Also, this would take place at the same time as a rebellion in Canada, which complicates the situation. If the British get involved and move against the Union, it would put a serious damper on any future American westward expansion.

Now, Mexico had many American settlers in the area that would become Texas. It could be that disaffected Northerners, enterprising Confederates, and anti-royalist Canadians would all make their way west and carve out little statelets for themselves.

It's possible that there would be some kind of rebellion in Canada and Mexico at the same time as this ACW. If the USA falls apart, the other two will probably follow before long. Settlers out West could in time be granted their own dominion status as part of the British Empire, leading to independence. California might end up as both spanish-speaking (or bilingual) and independent, which is something I can't say I've seen before.
 

katchen

Banned
I don't know that there would have necessarily been a civil war except possibly within Virginia itself, but if Thomas Jefferson had been part of the Constitutional Convention instead of away representing the United States in Paris, the US might very wel have split into two nations in 1788 over the new Constitution. And if George Washington favored a Federal Union with a strong Chief Executive and Thomas Jefferson, also from Virginia favored States Rights, Virginia itself might well have split into two states with South Virginia going Confederate and North and West Virginia going Union. Many if not most of the ideas that are identified with the Confederacy seem to have started with Jefferson.
 
I don't know that there would have necessarily been a civil war except possibly within Virginia itself, but if Thomas Jefferson had been part of the Constitutional Convention instead of away representing the United States in Paris, the US might very wel have split into two nations in 1788 over the new Constitution. And if George Washington favored a Federal Union with a strong Chief Executive and Thomas Jefferson, also from Virginia favored States Rights, Virginia itself might well have split into two states with South Virginia going Confederate and North and West Virginia going Union. Many if not most of the ideas that are identified with the Confederacy seem to have started with Jefferson.

I would agree, Wahington himself noted that the Slavery question itself was brushed under the carpet for "about a 100 years" during the Constitutional Convention. Not sure if it would count as a civil war however as the nation hadn't really come into being. If the North was more strident and the South more beligerant I can see two states forming and there being continual friction over escaped slaves.
 
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