Earliest PoD where European Dominance is 50%+ Likely

Earliest PoD where European Dominance is 50%+ Likely

  • 5000BCE: Dawn of Human Civilization

    Votes: 8 7.8%
  • 323BCE: Death of Alexander the Great

    Votes: 4 3.9%
  • 337: Death of Constantine the Great

    Votes: 4 3.9%
  • 1294: Death of Kublai Khan

    Votes: 29 28.2%
  • 1492: Beginning of Colonization of the Americas

    Votes: 55 53.4%
  • 1757: Battle of Plessy

    Votes: 3 2.9%

  • Total voters
    103
If we’re talking about the discovery of the New World, then geographically by far the most likely should have been West Africa, as distance to Brazil was by far the shortest, and ocean currents were extremely favorable. Of course West Africa developed way too late. Had they done so earlier, American crops like corn and cassava would have been perfect for an agricultural revolution. But with a POD at 5000 BC there’s no reason this would have been unlikely.

Senegal and Brazil are the closest two Transatlantic countries. But at 2600km, it's still really far. You'd need serious seafaring tech and skills to traverse that distance and back safely.

No West African country is likely to develop those abilities before any European country. Europe has been practicing seafaring in their surrounding seas for thousands of years. Africa has little specific coast and few good harbors relative to that coastline to do so.

Furthermore Africa lacks the resources to build ships as easily as Europeans.

The likelihood of West Africa exploring and colonizing the New World is very small.
 
Senegal and Brazil are the closest two Transatlantic countries. But at 2600km, it's still really far. You'd need serious seafaring tech and skills to traverse that distance and back safely.

No West African country is likely to develop those abilities before any European country. Europe has been practicing seafaring in their surrounding seas for thousands of years. Africa has little specific coast and few good harbors relative to that coastline to do so.

Furthermore Africa lacks the resources to build ships as easily as Europeans.

The likelihood of West Africa exploring and colonizing the New World is very small.

To go from Senegal to Brazil one only need to take the North Equitorial Current, but from Spain one would first have to sail south to West Africa and catch the Canary Current before the North Equitorial Current. It’s a much longer, and more importantly less obvious journey. Fishing boats and life boats off West Africa actually get accidentally swept to Brazil. It’s reasonable to assume this happened by accident in history. But sailing back is the trick. The short trip is the Guinea current, the long way is the across the North Atlantic.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Gyre#/media/File:North_Atlantic_Gyre.png

It’s a difficult trip but it does not require particularly advanced sea faring technology. Thor Heyerdahl did it in a pyparus reed boat and he took the longer route from Morocco. This voyage could be done with all sorts of similarly basic boats. It’s nothing compared to Polynesian voyages. The tech and skill barrier is far lower than sailing from Europe. They just needed to get a little more organized earlier, perhaps through earlier contact with North Africans or Romans.

There’s also the possibility some Brazilians could develop primative sailing tech and take the Guinea Current to West Africa. With a 5000BC POD I’d say the probability was much higher than waiting til 1492 for some Europeans to finally sort this out.
 
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