Earliest feasible European colonization of the Americas

ben0628

Banned
Well, the problem is that the OP asked for mass colonization. Would the Norse of Vinland be able to accomplish this, or would their colony become a on-off until the rest of Europe arrived on schedule?

I'm assuming a more successful Viking colonization leads to other groups attempting to colonize
 
It could be posible if the Norse would be early tied to a surviving Carolingian/large HRE that would be consolidated in the continent enough to pay more attention to peripheral matters like the Viking expeditions to the Great North.

The problem with IOTL expeditions to Markland/Vindland etc. is that they were kept for themselves and the European powers largely ignored them.
If the Norse would have an earlier and deeper relation with a continental solid power, maybe then this power could have been interested in boosting these expeditions to North America, resulting in proper settlement of, apart of Norse, Germanic-Latin population.
 
Well, the problem is that the OP asked for mass colonization. Would the Norse of Vinland be able to accomplish this, or would their colony become a on-off until the rest of Europe arrived on schedule?
I think you may be underestimating how quickly a colony could grow in terms of natural increase.

First Viking to Columbus is half a millennium.
 
I think you may be underestimating how quickly a colony could grow in terms of natural increase.

First Viking to Columbus is half a millennium.
Between which happened the end of the medieval warm period and far too small an influx of new blood for any substantial natural increase in comparison to columbian times unless the vikings somehow attempt the very unwise decision of raiding natives for stock. Even if they do succeed against near ASB odds with that, there is no telling how much that may even help.

In my honest opinion, if you want earlier colonization of the americas, you have to have different circumstances on Eurasia than OTL for Europe. As in you will need a series of other, internal PODs to create ideal corcumstances early, because ideal circumstances with minimal change ... Well, they ended in OTL's colonization.
 
Maybe the Norse are far more successful conquering all the British Isles and settling there en mass while assimilating/being assimilated by the people still living but major powers in the continent somehow ensure any and all attempts to expand there fail catastrophically.

Despite them not wanting to continue a seemingly impossible task population pressure means they have to do something thus the discovery of lands to the west is seen like divine blessing and taken up with fervour. Which only increases as they explore more and realize the new land expands south into better climates, maybe one ends up going far enough to stumble upon the civilizations of mesoamerica too because really by this point not like that is going to rate when compared to the rest.

On a more plausible note I think the best way would be a group stumbling across any of the islands and managing to defeat the people living there. Even if the original number is small the native population can fill in and being on an island they don't have the problems of having to fight countless other groups. The small size doesn't matter if it is early enough since they would have plenty of time to grow and expand far.
Well, the problem is that the OP asked for mass colonization. Would the Norse of Vinland be able to accomplish this, or would their colony become a on-off until the rest of Europe arrived on schedule?
I think you may be underestimating how quickly a colony could grow in terms of natural increase.

First Viking to Columbus is half a millennium.
Assuming a two percent growth per year, which is rather low to say the least, a population of a thousand people could grow to about twenty million in that time. The problem is having the Vikings'(or anyone else's) settlements going from being on and off to people really living and growing there, conflicts with people already in the region is I think the biggest problem and why I figured maybe starting on an island could work.
 
Assuming a two percent growth per year, which is rather low to say the least, a population of a thousand people could grow to about twenty million in that time. The problem is having the Vikings'(or anyone else's) settlements going from being on and off to people really living and growing there, conflicts with people already in the region is I think the biggest problem and why I figured maybe starting on an island could work.

I think that's the best plan. Small island first then once the colony is well established and growing, expand to fill Nova Scotia. Reasonably defensible and isolated but at the same time a good start for further expansion down the coast.

Interactions with the natives are going to be very different than our history though since there will be less technological disparity and the Vikings won't have endless numbers of immigrants. The Vikings will have the huge advantage of diseases decimating the locals but it's going to be far more an interaction of equals than in our history.
 
Between which happened the end of the medieval warm period

The medieval warm period lasted for 250 years after the Norse first landed in North America. That is a slightly longer timespan than the United States have been in existence to get established and grow while the climate is better than today. Also don't forget that even after the warm period was over, Vinland was a more clement area than the Norse were adapted for. They made a matter-of-fact go at Greenland.

and far too small an influx of new blood for any substantial natural increase in comparison to columbian times

I don't know what that means?

unless the vikings somehow attempt the very unwise decision of raiding natives for stock. Even if they do succeed against near ASB odds with that, there is no telling how much that may even help.

On a more plausible note I think the best way would be a group stumbling across any of the islands and managing to defeat the people living there. Even if the original number is small the native population can fill in and being on an island they don't have the problems of having to fight countless other groups. The small size doesn't matter if it is early enough since they would have plenty of time to grow and expand far.

I think you overestimate the population density hunter-gatherers could swing. Estimates for the population of Newfoundland, an area a bit bigger than Ireland have been about 1500 people. However this may be high, and it is possible that it was about half that. That is all the people. About 1/3 would be fighting capable. A normal atlantic-crossing Knarr Viking ship had a crew of 20-30 people. When Eric the Red colonized Greenland, he got 25 ships to follow him.

The total number of natives spread out over a large area with little in the way of communication besides word of mouth is not much greater than the number of colonists the Vikings can bring. Before the epidemics. About equal to an average Viking town in Scandinavia.

The problem for the Norse historically was that they did not know this. They expected the same kind of population as they found in places like Ireland, etc. I believe that a smaller group such as a handful of families could make good use of the defensive utility of an island. Perhaps even beyond the reach of the natives. But something larger such as Eric the Reds colonization should be able to ettle where they please.
 
Last edited:
Depends on how far back the POD is. A POD in antiquity could feasibly result in colonization some time during the OTL middle ages.
 
I think you overestimate the population density hunter-gatherers could swing. Estimates for the population of Newfoundland, an area a bit bigger than Ireland have been about 1500 people. However this may be high, and it is possible that it was about half that. That is all the people. About 1/3 would be fighting capable. A normal atlantic-crossing Knarr Viking ship had a crew of 20-30 people. When Eric the Red colonized Greenland, he got 25 ships to follow him..

Agreed. For comparison the entire Beothuk people of Newfoundland centuries later totaled about 500-700 individuals. http://www.heritage.nf.ca/articles/aboriginal/beothuk-distribution.php

Assuming a serious colonization would probably include several hundred people plus assorted animals I don't think securing Newfoundland would present a serious challenge. As you said, 25 ships would outnumber the entire island's population.
 
I think if the Norse had first established a base in North America, greater immigration would follow. Some of it would be adventures or people looking for better land. But some of it would also just be slaves/thralls brought over, simply to deal with the deficit in the labour force. Economic this would pretty transformative for Europe as Norway, Iceland and Greenland would suddenly lay on a new major trading route. A interesting idea could be Bergen gaining independence from Norway as a kind of Most Serene Republic of northern Europe, maybe with control over Vestlandet, Iceland and Greenland, its period of greatness lasting until someone found the southern route in the 15th century (likely a Iberian state). Alternate we could see Norway turning into a much more major player. The American crop packets would likely also enter northern Europe via Norway (some crops early some later). The result would be a that relative wealthy Scandinavian and north German states suddenly got a way to feed a larger population. If the potato as example hit in the 14-15th century. We likely see a new population boom in the following decades.
 
Norse, no other option from Europeans is reasonable unless you go into Pytheas of Massalia PODs which I did try a TL on (It didn't get very far though and I was pretty unsatisfied with the results).


Calling all Norse 'vikings' I find would be like calling Native Americans 'Indians'. I mean, would you go up to a sailor in the early 18th century Caribbean and call him a Pirate?

Would the Norse of Vinland be able to accomplish this

If the Norse were willing to mass colonize a frozen hell-hole like Iceland then the extra distance will pay off, they won't get many colonists from Norway and such but they will from Greenland and Iceland.

I'm assuming a more successful Viking colonization leads to other groups attempting to colonize

Not for a long time.

The only people sponsoring and organizing colonizing it are going to be people relatively close by(Iceland/Greenland). The only ones with the Technology to even get there would be the Scandinavian countries and maybe England, even then it's hard. Canute's empire was struggling from just the distance between England and Denmark so going along the North Altantic is a no go for European Countries. Maybe Some exiled noble who goes to Iceland tries to build something in Vinland but there is little else.

resulting in proper settlement of, apart of Norse, Germanic-Latin population.

How will they get there? Even the Norse had trouble in Polar waters and only those born near the poles and experienced with them could navigate safely. Also any continentals would have little reason to, undeveloped land was becoming rarer but not overly rare.

I think you may be underestimating how quickly a colony could grow in terms of natural increase.

This. Assuming a couple has six surviving children (I think thats the average at the time correct me if I'm wrong.) then thats a multiplication of three for each generation, combine those numbers with slaves, assimilated Skraelings, and fresh immigrants then it will gain traction very fast.

First Viking to Columbus is half a millennium.

Plenty of time to grow into a World Power ;)

I figured maybe starting on an island could work.

I did this in my TL (Shameless advertising) the Magdalene Islands are something that very few people take into consideration.

good start for further expansion down the coast

Ehhhh... I think the Norse would confine themselves to the St.Lawrence gulf given the risks of higher Skraeling population to the south as well as winds and water currents that will try and blow you into the middle of the Atlantic.

The Vikings will have the huge advantage of diseases decimating the locals

when Smallpox makes its way it will still decimate a whole lot of Natives. Also for a more recent epidemic the plague that killed Eric the Red could work.
 
The Quebec French multiplied from 60 000 in 1760 to 6 millions 2 centuries later. Population grew 10 times in a century.
11th century Norse will not have 19th century medicine. Well, say their population increases 4 times in a century. Suppose there are 500 Norse settled in Newfoundland by 1020 (Eric got 560 in Greenland) and no new immigrants (a very conservative estimate).
Then there would be 2000 in 1120, 8000 in 1220, 32 000 in 1320 and 128 000 in 1420.
Newfoundland is bigger than Iceland, and warmer. Colder than Ireland, but bigger.
I´d suggest that a High Medieval Newfoundland could reasonably support population of 100 000.
 
Top