Earliest Conservative Victory post 1997?

After the 1997 General Election Labour was firmly in power after a historic landslide. It took a while for the Conservatives to pick themselves up and look credible as a party that had changed from the sleaze of the 90s.

So, with a POD after the 1997 election, when is the earliest the Conservatives can return to power?

Bonus points if they can win a majority unlike 2010.
 
Realistically, it's the next-election but one after 1997 - so 2005/06. I can absolutely see a win in that election if Ken wins in 1997, takes the party to around 200ish seats in 2001, validates himself by that advance, (Even IOTL Hague would have been allowed to continue if he'd made a serious advance) and is given another term. Him taking the party as Iraq-sceptical as possible and avoiding the car-crash of that parliament IOTL would almost certainly be enough for a minority Conservative outcome.
 
Realistically, it's the next-election but one after 1997 - so 2005/06. I can absolutely see a win in that election if Ken wins in 1997, takes the party to around 200ish seats in 2001, validates himself by that advance, (Even IOTL Hague would have been allowed to continue if he'd made a serious advance) and is given another term. Him taking the party as Iraq-sceptical as possible and avoiding the car-crash of that parliament IOTL would almost certainly be enough for a minority Conservative outcome.
I agree Clarke would do better in an election but would the backbenches have allowed such a Europhile at the top spot. Surely some concessions would have to be made like putting a Eurosceptic as chancellor?
 
I agree Clarke would do better in an election but would the backbenches have allowed such a Europhile at the top spot. Surely some concessions would have to be made like putting a Eurosceptic as chancellor?

It's less of an issue both in opposition, and in the 1997-2005 period, when European issues weren't a big feature. (And no, I don't think Blair goes for a Euro referendum, in the isolation of this question; you need Iraq not to happen for that) I think Clarke would get pushed on the Euro and there'd probably be a compromise on that, but I don't think it's going to be a huge issue in opposition - it's in government that it plays merry hell with leaderships. It's if he's elected in 2005/06, particularly on a minority, that's the point things would kick off, and kick off big time....
 
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