Earlier Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, Effects on Western Front?

Coulsdon Eagle

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AFAIK the Flanders offensive was GEORGE, which was scaled down to GEORGETTE due to the resources that ended up being committed (above and beyond what they should have, Ludendorff exceeded the original plan) to MICHAEL the first offensive launched IOTL.
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vierte_Flandernschlacht

Operation HAGEN was a July offensive against the French.

Sure it was a different offensive to George / Georgette, and Eric pined for it long after the German's lost the initiative on the Western Front. I'll try to dig something up from my library when I get back from - ironically - Ostend.
 
That passage does not indicate they understood the rail issue. Ludendorff even less so than Wetzell. None of them really understood the operational/strategic significance of Amiens or Hazebrouk.

The question was whether or not they were targeting Amiens and Hazebrouck, which they were; whether or not they knew of their strategic significance is kinda irrelevant in the face of that. They definitely did understand the tactical importance of the railroads in the area and Zabecki states Hindenburg's post war memoirs showed he, at the least, understood their strategic significance to an extent as well, but Zabecki doesn't elaborate whether this was due to Post-War knowledge or not.
 

Coulsdon Eagle

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AFAIK the Flanders offensive was GEORGE, which was scaled down to GEORGETTE due to the resources that ended up being committed (above and beyond what they should have, Ludendorff exceeded the original plan) to MICHAEL the first offensive launched IOTL.
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vierte_Flandernschlacht

Operation HAGEN was a July offensive against the French.

Well, that's confusing, as the operation planned for Flanders - and not George / Georgette as launched (British name is Battle of the Lys) - was also code-name Hagen according to some sources, as well as being the name of the later one launched against the French.
If you Google "Operation Hagen Flanders" there are several different sources confirming that Hagen was planned for Flanders - later versions were to follow-up Georgette.
 

Deleted member 1487

Well, that's confusing, as the operation planned for Flanders - and not George / Georgette as launched (British name is Battle of the Lys) - was also code-name Hagen according to some sources, as well as being the name of the later one launched against the French.
If you Google "Operation Hagen Flanders" there are several different sources confirming that Hagen was planned for Flanders - later versions were to follow-up Georgette.
Alright, here's the answer courtesy of Zabecki's "German 1918 Offensives", which he wrote with access to the original German planning documents and orders. P.293 with a map. It as ordered for July 1918. It was an unplanned final offensive that would hit the Hazebrouck area, but there is no reference to anything to do with the rail connection or town being objectives (p.291).

So Hagen was in the same area, but was not even planning around the rail connection and was always meant as a follow up to Georgette. No where is Hagen listed as a name for planning in Flanders except as a follow up to George/Georgette.

The name Hagen was never attached to operations against the French at all, the reference I found to it online claiming that it was the final German offensive is false, that operation in July was called Marneschütz-Reims. Apparently there was a mix up in the operation names.
 

Coulsdon Eagle

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Alright, here's the answer courtesy of Zabecki's "German 1918 Offensives", which he wrote with access to the original German planning documents and orders. P.293 with a map. It as ordered for July 1918. It was an unplanned final offensive that would hit the Hazebrouck area, but there is no reference to anything to do with the rail connection or town being objectives (p.291).

So Hagen was in the same area, but was not even planning around the rail connection and was always meant as a follow up to Georgette. No where is Hagen listed as a name for planning in Flanders except as a follow up to George/Georgette.

The name Hagen was never attached to operations against the French at all, the reference I found to it online claiming that it was the final German offensive is false, that operation in July was called Marneschütz-Reims. Apparently there was a mix up in the operation names.

Thanks - my memory isn't what it was so I did wonder if I'd plucked Hagel / Hagen out of thin air! :rolleyes: Ludendorff really wanted his Flanders offensive as first option - presumably Hagen was the name assigned to it later in 1918 - but went with the attack on 5th Army as the ground in Flanders hadn't dried out (which wasn't really unexpected given the problems the British experienced at Passchendaele. Presumably he though beating the British straight on was the best option, maybe followed by a shorter advance through Hazebrouck to the Channel coast.
 

Deleted member 1487

Thanks - my memory isn't what it was so I did wonder if I'd plucked Hagel / Hagen out of thin air! :rolleyes: Ludendorff really wanted his Flanders offensive as first option - presumably Hagen was the name assigned to it later in 1918 - but went with the attack on 5th Army as the ground in Flanders hadn't dried out (which wasn't really unexpected given the problems the British experienced at Passchendaele. Presumably he though beating the British straight on was the best option, maybe followed by a shorter advance through Hazebrouck to the Channel coast.
Hagen was the name assigned to the follow up to George. George couldn't be launched quickly enough, so a modified version was created and even that proved too problematic, so Georgette was created as the rapid follow up. After Georgette was conceived, a follow up named Hagen was planned to exploit the opportunities created by Georgette, but would require time before it could be launched, as it was planned for on ground not yet taken or integrated into the logistical system. So Hagen was a plan that waited to be planned until Georgette petered out so that it could then determine the ground it had to operate on.

In terms of the Michael-Georgette situation, it wasn't the dryness of the ground that was the main issue, though Kuhl, one of his staff officers, did favor it. Ludendorff thought there were far too many problems with the George plan, including lack of decisiveness. The risk of a late rains in May making the ground a problem was but one factor. As it was Lossberg was claiming for a wait for attack into May, so there wasn't a consensus that waiting was a problem. Michael was just the one operation of several developed that didn't have an issue due to the weather and offered decisive results, which would then assist the follow on operations. Since it could be launched earlier than the others because weather was less of an issue, the process could get going before the American threat built up.
This is all from the planning chapter in Zabecki.
 
So if the Germans are able to win in 1918 with the Spring Offensive and subsequent victories, what would the treaty look like?
 
@History Learner I remember your points on a Entente defeat, did you say anything on what such a treaty would look like?

Recognition of Brest-Litovsk and generally acceptance of a free hand for Germany in the east, reparations, Luxembourg and Briey-Longwy for sure. Both slopes of the Vosges, Belfort, and maybe Nancy as well. As far as Colonies ago, it's up in the air by 1918; the BEF just got shattered so British morale will be low but the reinforcement of the Royal Navy by the U.S. Navy means Germany has no means of forcing the issue. They could probably work out a deal of a neutralized Belgium and reduction of the HSF in exchange for the restoration of the African colonies and the right to annex the French and Belgian Congo.
 
Recognition of Brest-Litovsk and generally acceptance of a free hand for Germany in the east, reparations, Luxembourg and Briey-Longwy for sure. Both slopes of the Vosges, Belfort, and maybe Nancy as well. As far as Colonies ago, it's up in the air by 1918; the BEF just got shattered so British morale will be low but the reinforcement of the Royal Navy by the U.S. Navy means Germany has no means of forcing the issue. They could probably work out a deal of a neutralized Belgium and reduction of the HSF in exchange for the restoration of the African colonies and the right to annex the French and Belgian Congo.

... and of the Hapsburgs, Ottomans, and Bulgarians? I mean, Germany certainly dominated the alliance, but that trio would still need to have their fronts dealt with (In Greece, the Near East, Italy, ect.) A formal surrender/solution in Serbia and to the government of Albania would also have to be reached.
 
... and of the Hapsburgs, Ottomans, and Bulgarians? I mean, Germany certainly dominated the alliance, but that trio would still need to have their fronts dealt with (In Greece, the Near East, Italy, ect.) A formal surrender/solution in Serbia and to the government of Albania would also have to be reached.

Obviously they'd need to get something, but I'm less sure on what and so I'm hesitant to make any guesses. The Ottomans getting Kars and some sort of Azeri puppet seems likely, while the Bulgarians getting Vardar Macedonia and maybe some of Greece likewise. Austria I honestly have no idea, although I think the plan as of 1918 was still to enforce a puppet rump Serbia as well as have a Hapsburg on the new throne of Poland.
 
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