Earlier russian surrender in WWI, can the central powers overcome the blockade?

Let's say that Nicholas II decides to break it's agreement with the west, and shortly before the Brusilov offensive he comes to the table with the germans and gives them the baltics, Ukraine and Poland, while the ottomans get Kars back. The germans now have a year to pacify Ukraine for it's grain production, could this reverse the blockade, and maybe allow them to win the great war?
 
I can see the Russians agreeing to a status quo 1914 boundary peace, and the Germans should accept this if they did. no way anybody is giving up the Ukraine without a fight. Basically in 1918 the Germans/Austrians were occupying it anyway when the Soviets agreed.

But assuming the Germans/Turks/Austrians and Russians made peace and the Germans could buy Soviet grain and cotton and perhaps some oil (and continue to buy through still neutral Romania). There is no need to do unrestricted submarine warfare and have a numerical superiority in the west from late 1916 on. The Germans just win. By late 1917 a Central Powers favorable compromise peace is reached.
 
Let's say that Nicholas II decides to break it's agreement with the west, and shortly before the Brusilov offensive he comes to the table with the germans and gives them the baltics, Ukraine and Poland, while the ottomans get Kars back. The germans now have a year to pacify Ukraine for it's grain production, could this reverse the blockade, and maybe allow them to win the great war?

Actually, if the local Ukrainian civil administration is kept in place, the records are made available, and the Germans don't literally eat the seed corn due to goarging to recover from the "Turnip Winter", I could see this actually working significantly better than OTL's efforts to utilize the region. Waiting until after authority broke down, the peasents became warry of having their grain confiscated, bandit/insurgency groups broke out en-mass and thus requiring the German military to run the area really combined the worst of productivity lose and 'wasteful' mis-management, while the earlier peace would also allow Germany to slow down its mobalization of manpower/demobalize some of its boys in the East/ect. in term for spring planting in 1917, improving domestic food production in the CP during that year in addition to gains in the east. More calories, less hunger, less inflation, less unrest... it all snowballs in a posative direction.

Though, as @Catspoke said, I hestitate to believe Russia will hand over Ukraine in an early 1917 peace. Poland? Sure; its lost anyways and filled with a surely minority that's resisting Russification. The Baltics? A little less likely; they're some of the most developed regions in the Empire, after all, but if it could save the Throne you might be able to pull it off.
 
Though, as @Catspoke said, I hestitate to believe Russia will hand over Ukraine in an early 1917 peace. Poland? Sure; its lost anyways and filled with a surely minority that's resisting Russification. The Baltics? A little less likely; they're some of the most developed regions in the Empire, after all, but if it could save the Throne you might be able to pull it off.
On the other hand the Baltic is a region with historical connections to Germany and the current rulers of Germany, so I think it would probably go the the CP in a peace deal.

On the other hand, if this happens something really bad is going to go down in Russia. It's hard to predict exactly what but something will happen. The warmongering faction basically controls the Duma, which can't result in anything good.
 
Something I have pondered under the so-called East First scenario, an overall better war for both CPs in the East, getting to OTL 1917 line of advance earlier, a more defensive Russia holding basically Estonia, Belarus on the marshes and some jagged line across Ukraine. I cannot yet get myself talked into Nicholas pulling the plug but I can ponder a palace coup that crafts a sort of, kind of PG with as much legitimacy and illegitimacy. Obviously he Western Front looks vastly different and the USA is further away from becoming a belligerent too, so winter of 1916 is when the Russians fear the Anglo-French cannot win or will not save Russia, a separate peace.

Generally I find talking away the H-L dictatorship does more to solve German problems, the blockade is not s bad as their mismanagement and shortsightedness, with civilian administrators organizing the economy, a leakier blockade and saner approach to a peace feeler, things look far better. I will not say the CPs go straight to victory but they have a potent base to pivot from into 1917, strong enough to potentially cascade an armistice, something I think the H-L brain trust cannot accomplish but a saner General Staff and Kaiser who can be rehabilitated could settle for far before things in Berlin get dire. It takes changes to both Germany and Russia to settle out earlier, plus you need to take down the Entente ability to deliver on rebuilding Russia, i.e. no USA money looming large. Plausible but improbable.
 
On the other hand the Baltic is a region with historical connections to Germany and the current rulers of Germany, so I think it would probably go the the CP in a peace deal.

On the other hand, if this happens something really bad is going to go down in Russia. It's hard to predict exactly what but something will happen. The warmongering faction basically controls the Duma, which can't result in anything good.

The vague and fairly loose Hanseatic connections are hardly Hohenzollern, and really have no role in how willing Petrograd is going to be willing to give away these strategically important and economically valuable provinces (Though, the presence of the Baltic Germans and their high position among the mercantile class IS highly relevant for Germany's ability to smoothly integrate the region and efficently utalize its resources in the event they are surrendered). A peace in the earlist months of 1917 or latest months of 1916 is one in which the Russian army still exists; not having completely dissolved as it would later in the year which would lead to being forced to make the huge concessions at B-L, and still very capable of making the CP bleed profusely if they insist on terms too disadvantageous to Russia. If the goal of this early peace is to save itself from Revolution, than we have to assume the Imperial government is only going to be agreeing to terms lenient enough to not trigger the risk of revolt/a coup at home
 
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