Earlier OR Later Western Penetration of Japan

To me, one of the most interesting things about the opening of Japan and the beginning of the Meiji Restoration is the very fortuitous timing of it, because it came at a time when Japanese society was at a significant crossroads, both domestically and in terms of how it viewed foreigners.

Around 1853, the social order of the Edo Period was beginning to show the first cracks of stagnation and social unrest; the class hierarchy was becoming undone as the merchants (the supposedly least-valued social class) were beginning to prosper, while the samurai (the supposedly most prestigious class) were becoming more impoverished and dependent on the chonin that was beginning to vastly outstrip them in material wealth. Meanwhile, the Shogunate was trying to focus Japanese society on agriculture at a time when a merchant economy was already in full-swing, and this disconnect was causing major social unrest and political struggles among different factions in the daimyo, Shogunate, and elsewhere.

And then there was their attitude toward foreigners, which was slowly becoming more paranoid and hostile, especially after seeing China being penetrated so ruthlessly after the Opium War. Before Commodore Perry sailed into Edo, the Japanese government had already been raising its defenses and being extra vigilant about expelling any Western ships that came into their waters.

But what if the timing had been different? What if a Western power (be it the United States, Britain, Spain, France, Russia, or anyone else) had decided to make a full-on attempt at complete penetration of Japan at a significantly earlier or later time? What shape would they have found Japan in domestically, and how would this interact with the outcome of opening the country and what the leaders would decide to do?

If they had come earlier (in the early 19th, or 18th century, maybe), they probably might've found a Japan that was comparitively more politically and socially stable and still enjoying the peace of the Edo Period. However, it would also be a time when the government did not have much exposure to what European countries were capable of in the interest of trade; they didn't have the sobering lesson of China to look toward and make them want to avoid sharing the same fate. Would the Shogunate, therefore, have been more willing to resist foreign encroachment, violently if they thought it necessary? What would've been the outcome of that? Successful resistance? A Japanese Opium War and violent invasion, a la China?

Or, let's say that European or American warships had come into Edo later in the 19th century, or perhaps the early 20th century. Then what? Without significant foreign interference, would the social unrest brewing in the 1850's have given way to major turmoil? If so, how would that interact with a Western arrival, finding a Japan that was in the midst of great domestic strife, but which also had learned to be extremely suspicious (to put it mildly) of foreign intentions?
 
Last edited:
Most of the foreigners (or Nanban as they called them) who came to Japan during the Sengoku era were highly impressed by Japan. Ability of these travellers was also seen as some of the travellers who came to Japan at that time were made samurai to utilize their knowledge.
In 1609 the Spanish forbade their own men from fighting Japanese soldiers due to their high skill. Even the Dutch employed Samurai to fight the English in the spice islands.
However, when foreigners came to Japan 250 years later after the opening I don't think they would have been so impressed. During the Tokugawa shogunate many great things had since deteriorated. Due to paranoia ordinary were even forbidden from using the road system and wheels were only a luxury the military was allowed.
If any western power tried to outright conquer Japan then they would not do so. They take some but there would be a lot of resistance. It would be similar to the British campaigns in Afghanistan.
 
It may have been China, had it took a wildly different path, and with Japan's nascent nationalism, a war could have happened... who know?
 
Top