As mentioned by Widukind ... the important question aren't for starters, who can/will open Japan, but what the opject we need to get is ... is it a Meiji-esque analouge or is it specifically a "someone come and bully their way though Japanese isolationism" ... if its the former, an important thing to remember is that it wasn't as much the opening to foreign intervention that were the reasoning for Meiji-restoration, but it merely being the straw that broke the camels back, as the government succeeded in looking completely unable to a) pick a decision and b) when decided, keep standing for it and c) appeared very convince-able by foreign military forces (or the mere suggestion of it)