I voted for Anteitam.
How come?
Not arguing (as stated, I'm undecided, and I doubt seeing a good argument will make me disagree with it), but I enjoy seeing your analysis and opinion.
so, confidant mcClellan = McClellan Presidency?At Antietam Lee's army was caught strung out and unprepared, the Federals had the Confederate orders and knew what Lee's intentions were and where his forces would be, and yet McClellan did not commit his whole army to battle and failed to concetrate his forces to attack. A man like Grant or Thomas would have broken the ANV that day and driven their remnants into the Potomac and, if not destroyed and capture it, then certainly would have crippled it, leaving the Confederates scrambling to find reinforcement to replace its losses, and possibly even having to create a new command chain, which, in turn, would weaken the Confederates elsewhere making the Federal's job in different theatres all the easier.
Having said that, I wouldn't count decisive Federal victory at Antietam as the end point of the war, but it would be the moment that turned the tide, and I would be surprised to see the War last beyond 1863 or the spring of 1864 at the latest.
5. Lee wins at Gettysburg but is crushed on the Susqeuhanna trying to isolate Baltimore and Washington City, Union retakes Richmond in 1863
I voted for 1st Bull Run. This may reflect my ignorance of the mentality of the time, but it seems to me a decisive Federal defeat of Confederate arms in the opening stages of the war, together with an occupation of the Southern Capital, would have weakened the unity of the CSA, made a sucessful war for independence seem impossible for most Southerners, and eliminated the possibility that Britain and France would treat the CS as a legitimate belligerent they could trade with. The CSA would collapse like a house of cards, especially since the aristocratic Southern leadership was apparetly unwilling to fight a long guerilla war of attrition.
Um, hold on. I don't want to nitpick, but because "Lee gets crushed up north" is valid, this bugs me. Lee on the Susquehanna is far (relatively speaking) away from Baltimore and Washington City. That's not the way to go to isolate them.