Earlier Northern victory in ACW

Which is the likeliest earlier Northern victory

  • 1st Bull run goes different, Richmond falls Sept 1861

    Votes: 11 23.9%
  • McLellan is aggressive takes Richmond Spring 1862

    Votes: 12 26.1%
  • Lee's retreat after Anteitham cut off ANV destroyed

    Votes: 11 23.9%
  • Lee's retreat after Gettysburg cut off ANV destroyed

    Votes: 5 10.9%
  • Better planning for the Crater, Richmond falls Aug 1864

    Votes: 7 15.2%

  • Total voters
    46
  • Poll closed .
How come?

Not arguing (as stated, I'm undecided, and I doubt seeing a good argument will make me disagree with it), but I enjoy seeing your analysis and opinion.

At Antietam Lee's army was caught strung out and unprepared, the Federals had the Confederate orders and knew what Lee's intentions were and where his forces would be, and yet McClellan did not commit his whole army to battle and failed to concetrate his forces to attack. A man like Grant or Thomas would have broken the ANV that day and driven their remnants into the Potomac and, if not destroyed and capture it, then certainly would have crippled it, leaving the Confederates scrambling to find reinforcement to replace its losses, and possibly even having to create a new command chain, which, in turn, would weaken the Confederates elsewhere making the Federal's job in different theatres all the easier.

Having said that, I wouldn't count decisive Federal victory at Antietam as the end point of the war, but it would be the moment that turned the tide, and I would be surprised to see the War last beyond 1863 or the spring of 1864 at the latest.
 
At Antietam Lee's army was caught strung out and unprepared, the Federals had the Confederate orders and knew what Lee's intentions were and where his forces would be, and yet McClellan did not commit his whole army to battle and failed to concetrate his forces to attack. A man like Grant or Thomas would have broken the ANV that day and driven their remnants into the Potomac and, if not destroyed and capture it, then certainly would have crippled it, leaving the Confederates scrambling to find reinforcement to replace its losses, and possibly even having to create a new command chain, which, in turn, would weaken the Confederates elsewhere making the Federal's job in different theatres all the easier.

Having said that, I wouldn't count decisive Federal victory at Antietam as the end point of the war, but it would be the moment that turned the tide, and I would be surprised to see the War last beyond 1863 or the spring of 1864 at the latest.
so, confidant mcClellan = McClellan Presidency?

Please, someone write this.
 
I voted for 1st Bull Run. This may reflect my ignorance of the mentality of the time, but it seems to me a decisive Federal defeat of Confederate arms in the opening stages of the war, together with an occupation of the Southern Capital, would have weakened the unity of the CSA, made a sucessful war for independence seem impossible for most Southerners, and eliminated the possibility that Britain and France would treat the CS as a legitimate belligerent they could trade with. The CSA would collapse like a house of cards, especially since the aristocratic Southern leadership was apparetly unwilling to fight a long guerilla war of attrition.
 
1. South loses First Bull Run
2. Lee stays with the Union
3. Peninsular campaign goes well for Union
4. Antitem goes well for South but they are trapped and destroyed in a follow-up battle
5. Lee wins at Gettysburg but is crushed on the Susqeuhanna trying to isolate Baltimore and Washington City, Union retakes Richmond in 1863
6. Lee dies at Gettysburg from a heart attack
7. Chickamauga goes better for Union and sees Atlanta retaken in late 1863
8. Siege of Richmond ends earlier
9. Union adopts Spencer Carbine as standard weaponry for riflemen (Henry Rifle sounds nice but is difficult to make in quantity at this time)
10. Union puts Grant in charge earlier and makes Virginia bleed a year or two earlier
 
5. Lee wins at Gettysburg but is crushed on the Susqeuhanna trying to isolate Baltimore and Washington City, Union retakes Richmond in 1863

Um, hold on. I don't want to nitpick, but because "Lee gets crushed up north" is valid, this bugs me. Lee on the Susquehanna is far (relatively speaking) away from Baltimore and Washington City. That's not the way to go to isolate them.
 
I voted for 1st Bull Run. This may reflect my ignorance of the mentality of the time, but it seems to me a decisive Federal defeat of Confederate arms in the opening stages of the war, together with an occupation of the Southern Capital, would have weakened the unity of the CSA, made a sucessful war for independence seem impossible for most Southerners, and eliminated the possibility that Britain and France would treat the CS as a legitimate belligerent they could trade with. The CSA would collapse like a house of cards, especially since the aristocratic Southern leadership was apparetly unwilling to fight a long guerilla war of attrition.

McDowell's Army of North-Eastern Virginia could hardly march from Washington to Centreville without loosing cohesion with stragglers falling to the waysaide. It was a new, inexperianced and poorly disciplined army. Expecting it to be able to march on from a victory at Manassas and reach Richmond let alone take it at that time is, I'm afraid to say, somewhat absurd. Just like the Confederate army in OTL, the Federals would be just as disorganized by the victory as the Confederates would be by the defeat and would have been unable to exploit thier victory.
 
Um, hold on. I don't want to nitpick, but because "Lee gets crushed up north" is valid, this bugs me. Lee on the Susquehanna is far (relatively speaking) away from Baltimore and Washington City. That's not the way to go to isolate them.

That river makes a convenient boundary as do the hills and mountains in the area. There is a railway near its mouth on the Chesapeake and a town there that would serve as an impetus to that effect. I think a combined assault on Washington City from the North and South would run afoul of the forts in the area, a second (definitive) victory showing that Maryland was encircled might be enough to motivate the British and French into recognition.
 
1st Bull run goes different, Richmond falls Sept 1861

This is plausible, though the second clause is IMO unnecessary. First Manassas was pretty much of a coin flip, and whichever side lost would be routed. The Union could survive such a humiliation; I don't think the nascent CSA could.

OTL's result apparently confirmed the Southern belief that "Southern gentlemen" could whip any number of "pasty-faced" Yankees, and gave the CSA several months to form its organization. An opposite result would have opposite effects, and the CSA could unravel immediately.

This could happen long before the green and disorganized Union forces could get anywhere near Richmond.

McLellan is aggressive takes Richmond Spring 1862

Anything requiring McClellan to be aggressive is right out. He had a month after Seven Pines to start his attack or siege, and accomplished nothing.

Lee's retreat after Antietam cut off ANV destroyed

See above.

Lee's retreat after Gettysburg cut off ANV destroyed

The Army of the Potomac got beat up really good at Gettysburg. Remember how bad the first day's fighting went. Meade was not the hard driver who could have pushed the attack to finish the Army of Northern Virginia. This is not the same as McClellan after Antietam; the AotP was lot more beat up, and Lee was stronger.

Better planning for the Crater, Richmond falls Aug 1864

This is what I chose. Possible knock-on: President Ambrose Burnside?

This set of choices omits one important possibility: someone other than McClellan in command of the AotP. McClellan was a good organizer, but IMO not significantly better than for instance Buell or Fremont. They both formed large armies and marched longer distances than McClellan.

All that's needed is some butterfly effect that puts a different commander in western Virginia in 1861. That campaign was pretty much guaranteed to be a Union victory, and that commander would be summoned to Washington after First Manassas. Suppose it was "Pap" Thomas? (Say he was appointed to command in western Virginia because he was himself a Virginian.) Bruce Catton wrote that Thomas remaining with the Union almost made up for Lee going south; with the massive resources of the AotP, I don't see how the CSA can stop him.

But even a relative mediocrity like Buell would be better than Mac.
 
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