Earlier made in China

Hi I recently read an online PDF that analyze China’s rapid economic growth. The author examines past attempts, of industrialization the self strenghting movement ,the Republican era and the great leap forward. He explains why they failed and why Deng reforms succeeded.
Basically, he says that a country has to go through five stages to successfully industrialize.

1 Protoindustrialization : rural manufacturing for long distance trade.
2 first industrial revolution: which features the mass production of labor intensive goods (textiles, apparel).
3 industrial Trinity boom: railroads, mass supply of energy etc.
4 second industrial revolution steel, machine tools.
5welfare state universal suffrage ,human rights.


He argues that China succeded because this time choose (perhaps for lack of funds to invest in small village industries (Protoindustrialization) which like a chain reaction led to its first industrial revolution becoming the biggest exporter of textiles. which then lead to the second industrial revoution becoming the biggest exporter.

He makes the case that qing China and the republic of China could have ssucceded if they started with small industries in the country side (like Japan did).

what he completely seems to ignore is that both qing China and the Republican China did not have control of its ports\tariffs also there was not a free market like we know it the raw materials were controlled by the Western powers

I know little of economic development so my question is could qing China or Republican China have had the same success that the 1978 reforms had?
 
I believe it would be difficult due to

1. Lack of capital in late Qing Dynasty and Republic of China. Foreign capital was one of key factors that result in the successful of the reform.
2. Lack of infrastructure in late Qing Dynasty and Republic of China. During Mao's era, China has built many roads and railway lines. These infrastructure projects made great contributions to the reform.
3. Resistance from land gentry class in late Qing Dynasty and Republic China. In 1978, all land owners had been killed.
4. A weak central government. In 1978, there was no question, the central government was making all the important decisions.

However, that does not mean that a successful reform was no possible in an earlier time.

I believe it was still possible during Yuan Shikai's time. These were similar plans like establishing modern banking system, building new railway and roads, encouraging cash crops and establishing domestic industry. During the 4 years of his reign, government was able to balance the budget 2 out of 4 years. There was some hopes.
 
Could you have industrialized China pre-OTL?

Qing: Possible. It'd be difficult, and you'd need pro-reform movements to gain a lot of traction. Maybe if Kang Youwei and his Baohuanghui won out over Sun Zhongshan/Sun Yixian/Sun Yatsen and his Tongmenhui. You'd also need Cixi's 1898 coup to fail, and for her + Yuan + others to be imprisoned/killed.

ROC: China's fucked during the ROC. Central government collapsed, and warlords took over. Not very good for industrialization.

OTL: All the important people are either dead, in jail, or working to Deng's tune. The trauma of Maoism in the Cultural Revolution has made China seek alternatives. Deng is thus able to push through reform.
 
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