Earlier Iran-Iraq War

In 1971 the Shah of Iran tried to organize a coup against the Iraqi government. What if this event had led to a war between Iran and Iraq? In all likelihood the Iranians will win given their military superiority and American aid, so how would a military victory against Iraq affect the perception of the Shah’s government back in Iran?
 
The big question in this would be the USSR. In the event of war there's at least a moderate risk of Soviet intervention, which would be made easier if the Iranians were the ones to declare war. Iraq and the USSR were fairly close at this stage, so at least some military assistance is a given. An outright invasion of Iran is something that the Soviet Union would also consider (they did so in tandem with the UK during WWII), especially given presumed US support for the Iranians.

If the Soviets stayed out and Iran was victorious, that would absolutely shore up the reign of the Shah, particularly if the Shiite majority took control of the Iraqi government to some degree. It would rally the population around the Shah, temporarily appease the Ayatollahs, and make the so-called white revolution that much smoother. It would also massively increase tensions between Iran and the Arab world, as well as potentially accelerating the sectarian conflicts we all know and love today.

As for Vietnam, don't really know, though victory in this area (the oil rich middle east) might make it politically less painful to withdraw from Vietnam and Indochina generally.
 
Cyrus the Great

For a true challenge, try moving the POD earlier than 550 BC when Cyrus the Great ruled a Persian Empire that included Iraq.
It is amusing to watch Americans get excited over "Iranian interference with neighbouring countries!"
Hah!
Hah!
Iran (aka. Persia) was meddling in neighbouring countries long before the USA was invented!
Hah!
Hah!
Persia was meddling in its neighbors' politics before Jesus Christ was born!
Hah!
Hah!
 
The big question in this would be the USSR. In the event of war there's at least a moderate risk of Soviet intervention, which would be made easier if the Iranians were the ones to declare war. Iraq and the USSR were fairly close at this stage, so at least some military assistance is a given. An outright invasion of Iran is something that the Soviet Union would also consider (they did so in tandem with the UK during WWII), especially given presumed US support for the Iranians.

This is a year before that Egyptians kicked out their Soviet advisers, so Iraq hadn't yet become as important as it would be later on, but you're right this is going to attract Brezhnev's attention. I could see the Soviets sending arms, pilots, and money to the Iraqis, but a Soviet invasion seems improbable to me, given that it would almost guarantee war with the United States.

If the Soviets stayed out and Iran was victorious, that would absolutely shore up the reign of the Shah, particularly if the Shiite majority took control of the Iraqi government to some degree. It would rally the population around the Shah, temporarily appease the Ayatollahs, and make the so-called white revolution that much smoother. It would also massively increase tensions between Iran and the Arab world, as well as potentially accelerating the sectarian conflicts we all know and love today.

I wonder what this will mean for the Kurds? The Soviets had been supplying the Kurds in Turkey with guns and money for some time and there were a lot of communist Kurds in Iraq, but the Iranians funded Kurdish rebels in Iraq as well (Iranian funding of the Iraqi Kurdish rebels caused a war scare in 1974). If the Iraqi Kurds side with the Iranians, which isn't a given, then they'll probably want their own state which is going to make Turkey very upset.
 
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