Earlier ICBM for US

Would that not mean more easy targets for submarine launched missiles.
Technically, (and actually) no as the only Submarine missiles at the time were air-breathing cruise missiles and even with the advent of the GOLF class SSB submarines had to surface to launch. It was not until Polaris for the US and the GOLF-II for the USSR (1959 and 1963) that missile could be fired while submerged. And accuracy was questionable until much later. So much so that Polaris 1 was never given a counter-force, (military) targeting because it was unlikely they would be able to land them close enough to damage hardened targets.

So apparently doing war games they figured out that the safest place to put them was in the Midwest?

Initially the operational locations were pretty much dictated by where the training was done so that they could be 'stood-up' as soon as possible. Hence Florida and California where the missiles were being tested and where crew training was taking place. Texas and later mid-and-north west locations were for pretty obvious reasons; middle of nowhere, (and in theory at least in the mid/north west locations were further from the sea so further for sub launched missiles to go to get to the target) so security and operations would be easier. It was a constant learning curve over time. If you look at early proposed Atlas operations planning the "launch-site" was literally going to be down the road from the factory where the missile was made and they would be launched as they became available... A bit later, as I noted (but also like I said I've only seen it mentioned once in passing even there but hey if anyone else can find anything :) ) the idea was to still have them built and fired from relatively the same area only the factory would be built into a mountain and the 'launchers' a distance away connected by underground railroads.

The evolution to hardened shelters, then silos is pretty obvious but initially no one really understood how different ballistic missiles were than what had come before. The actual closest operational doctrine was from the Army (go figure they had Von Braun and team for advice) which stressed both mobility to avoid attack and high accuracy and evolutionary range increases over time. In contrast the Navy simply wanted missiles to give them a nuclear war fighting mission while the Air Force initial planning used the Atlas to blow holes in the Soviet Air Defense perimeter to ease the way for the "real" attack by manned bombers.

Randy
 
I remember a joke I heard where it was suggested putting ICBMs on Amtrak railroad launchers, then give the Russians an Amtrak schedule. They'd never find them!
 
Yes, but the point is it happened. The benefits of satellites for space observation were clear enough that even the Air Force eventually came around to trying to build them. The same will obviously be true in the Soviet Union, and so they will certainly attempt to launch a satellite sooner or later trying to do that. The key word is sooner or later--I'm not saying that Korolev will get the go-ahead when he did OTL, but by, say, the mid-1960s it's all but certain that someone will have launched a satellite, and that Korolev will have gotten the go-ahead for his own satellite program. Besides, the Soviets had plenty of missile designers, and Korolev wasn't really one of their best (Yangel tended to work better with the military).

Oh I understood that part I was just noting the Air Force's attitude changed slowly for the most part despite the internal and external pretty logical arguments FOR change :)

The actual "logical" progression is rather obvious due to the down-stream benefits but if you really look that was true since the early 1920s at the latest and given the experience of the rapid growth and sophistication of aircraft technology and utility it should be pretty straight forward to follow. But in reality it wasn't as linear as had been predicted by "aviation" experts so one can forgive some hesitation for those involved. In a similar manner the "space" experts could have been wrong, or at least not fully right but in general it seems the US was highly negative towards anything "space" on an official level more than anyplace else.

I never expanded it to a whole TL, if I do make a TL about it (which I probably should, Yangel is one of these people whose work deserves to be better known), Yangel presenting first (at the meeting where Krushchev decided on which big booster the USSR would build), would mean his (far more practical) big rocket would be built instead of Korolev's N-1, and the power of having the biggest rocket would allow him to push his fellow Chief Designers into behaving better.

I meant discussion thread but please feel free to expand and develop such a thread, we'll wait... At least a few minutes anyway :)

And yes Yangel is one of those who deserves some alt-history lovin ;) I did some notes on an idea where all the Soviet designers got on "better" than OTL, (Glushko and Koroleov were BFF as they were both sent to the Gulag... And survived) well no one really liked Chelomei, but they got along at least :) Assuming, (and it's always the nearest thing to ASB) politics don't get to crazy the Soviets would probably keep neck in neck with the US if not better. Of course my "No NASA" military run US program is all over the place as well...

I don't think it's realistic for Yangel to ever centralize the Soviet Space Program the way NASA did the US Space Program, though he might lay the groundwork for an earlier "RusCosmos" type agency.

Had anyone but Ike been in charge of the US at the time I have my doubts that "NASA" would have come about in the US. Which again gives you an interesting POD to work from as given similar 'humiliating' circumstances AND then adding the inter-service rivalry AND politics...

Yangel's organization would have been similar to DARPA (ARPA at the time) in the US as an umbrella and higher level organization. Probably for the good.

Who is this "Wilson" who was killing the Army BM program?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Erwin_Wilson

Charles Wilson, Ike's first Secretary of Defense and issuer of the infamous "FY 1956 Defense Organization" memorandum. To whit he limited the military services to certain "range" denominations of missiles. The Army lost all missiles with a range over 200 miles and while the Navy was "clarified" to be allowed control of all sea-going missiles this was not immediately clear in the original memorandum. (This also took away organic air support from the Army and gave close support {fixed wing} to the Air Force along with all transportation except for specific Navy assets both of which the Army and Navy had been complaining about for a while)

He's helped organize and implement the "New Look" defense policy which was Ike's attempt at reducing and 'stabilizing" defense policy by adopting a total war under any conditions policy where the US would prepare for any conflict to lead directly to full out nuclear war as a 'deterrent' to the Soviets. Coupled with leaning heavily on the CIA to undertake "covert" operations in support of the US, (based on the CIA's 'success' in Guatemala and Iran which they vastly over-blew in reporting) this was supposed to vastly reduce Defense spending by "rationalizing" the armed forces. What it amounted to, (and one SecOfDef office official LITTERALLY told the Chief of the Navy made the Army and Navy "obsolete" from now on) was expanding the US Air Forces nuclear striking power in terms of delivery and reducing more 'conventional' forces to save money.

It got to the point even the Air Force was complaining about the policy but they had no issues with getting control of most of the US nuclear weapons systems they ended up with "stuff" they didn't want, (like Jupiter as they had already been forced to develop Thor) and full control of military transport and Army close support. As well the policy simply didn't allow for anything short of total war or inaction and both the Navy and Army were significantly suffering under the policy.

And "no Schriever" is definitely a TL I want to read.

As would I! Oh, wait...

You mean you are having trouble picking which trouser leg of time to follow after you take your PoD?

Not at all! Don't most trousers have a dozen legs.. Each? :)

My biggest problem is I normally don't 'script' my writing AND I mostly write "scenes" rather than actual parts. So very often I not only don't end up where I wanted I often find myself writing myself into a corner. In the case of alt-history I very often have a 'scene' written or planned and come to find out it can't happen or wouldn't 'work' that way even though it's a really cool scene. Worse is how often I end up having several really, really good "trouser legs" for the same POD that I really want to explore but have neither the time nor ability to do so :(

Contrasting this is a distinct in ability to NOT get lost in researching all those 'legs' that I end up having far to much to work with and not enough discrete events to get anything done. While not actually "blaming" the fact I have AD(noH)D to contend with I DO tend to be the trope maker it seems, specifically when I cycle between cynicism and optimism.

I do wonder if the Soviet disorganization was actually an advantage. Except for losing the moon race, the Soviets kept up with the Americans in space despite vastly less resources and produced a treasure trove of technology that is key for every single manned space program currently going and which makes a nice little earner for the Russians. I have difficulty seeing American space technology being quite as successful if they'd been similarly desperate enough to start exporting it.

The Soviet's more competitive program meant that a diversity of designs were produced, different designs and approaches were tried, and the whole thing was such a riot the center couldn't control it the same way Congress could control the US program (not that the Soviet program was out of control - more the Soviet program generally bent more metal before control was exerted). So the programs and hardware of the Soviet space program was patched together from the tatters of dozens of design bureau's dreams.

Imagine if Marshall space flight center (descendant of the Army program from the 50s) had managed to put together some prototypes for mini-space stations (instead of the paper designs they made in OTL) and they'd gotten pinched by a competing NASA center and launched like Chelomei's Almaz was when Mishnin nicked it and used it as the basis for his Soyuz stations.

fasquardon

It's a thought. But at the time the very 'secretive' nature of the Soviet program made actual 'export' of the US technology easier which is why almost everyone "started" by buying or using US based tech. Of course about the time Soviet technology was being exported the US tried to stop theirs with ITAR :) That's actually were having a US program more similar to the Soviet one actually both hurts and helps. You get a myriad of various designs and types but without the more focused and centered NASA run program funding and support are fickle at best.

Dynasoar, while being the "holy grail" of alt-history actually was three separate programs at one early point AND tied with the development of the X-15 design before it was 'rationalized' into one program with three designs that evolved at the program progressed.

Similarly the Saturn booster was originally simply a 'place-holder' for a "large" heavy lift rocket to support Project Horizon and came from the need to keep the Von Braun team together when Jupiter was taken away from the Army. The criteria was actually pretty straight forward in the need to use already existing "tech" to build a bigger booster but once Sputnik went up the actual funding and support kept changing as did the design requirements. There was several points where work on Saturn stopped for the simple reason that someone 'higher-up' the food chain diverted funding and support even though it was the ONLY "big" booster under development at the time.

Randy
 
I remember a joke I heard where it was suggested putting ICBMs on Amtrak railroad launchers, then give the Russians an Amtrak schedule. They'd never find them!

I work at Hill AFB in Utah so we have examples of the Minuteman "Rail Garrison" trains here so it's not "exactly" a joke... But ya, I get it :)

Randy
 
Charles Wilson, Ike's first Secretary of Defense and issuer of the infamous "FY 1956 Defense Organization" memorandum.

Ah yes, I know who you mean.

(This also took away organic air support from the Army and gave close support {fixed wing} to the Air Force along with all transportation except for specific Navy assets both of which the Army and Navy had been complaining about for a while)

I didn't know he did this though!

I'd assumed CAS had been with the USAF since day 1. It would be fascinating to explore a TL with no Charles Wilson as SecDef. The USAF being much more focused on its strategic role and the Army and Navy having greater interest in aviation, space and nuclear strike capability sounds like it would make

It's a thought. But at the time the very 'secretive' nature of the Soviet program made actual 'export' of the US technology easier which is why almost everyone "started" by buying or using US based tech. Of course about the time Soviet technology was being exported the US tried to stop theirs with ITAR :) That's actually were having a US program more similar to the Soviet one actually both hurts and helps. You get a myriad of various designs and types but without the more focused and centered NASA run program funding and support are fickle at best.

Yeah, ITAR has not been good for US aerospace... I wonder how much that was responsible for retarding American innovation in high tech fields.

And the fickle funding and support might actually be an advantage - in OTL NASA has the funding and political support to dream big but no funding and political support for actually making the big dreams a reality - a harsher environment could help the various US aeropsace actors focus better. Or maybe the relative Soviet success was actually based elsewhere, and they were doing well despite much lower funding, and less funding in the USA would in fact just hurt things.

Had anyone but Ike been in charge of the US at the time I have my doubts that "NASA" would have come about in the US. Which again gives you an interesting POD to work from as given similar 'humiliating' circumstances AND then adding the inter-service rivalry AND politics...

That is a very interesting thought. I can just see it now... A real David-versus-Goliath story of the race between the well funded USAF program that doesn't have much support from its parent organization and the plucky underdog of the underfunded Army program which has the support of an army fighting to stay relevant in an era heavily favoring the airmen.

fasquardon
 
Ah yes, I know who you mean.

And

It would be fascinating to explore a TL with no Charles Wilson as SecDef.
[/quote]

Yup, though to be honest Ike pretty much entered office with some very specific goals for the US military once the Korean war was over and Wilson seems to have been both in agreement and a "co-sponsor" as it were. With a primary goal of reorganization of the DoD and primary intention of re-defining the adversarial military contest between the US and USSR, (which to that point had been rather haphazard between nuclear and conventional forces) along with reigning in military spending and expansion you're probably going to end up with something like the "New Look" policy. And how 'differently' it can be applied is a question. In many ways Wilson's approach to dealing internally with the DoD and Military seems to have been much better than previous SecDef, (though honestly there's not much history at this point) but he and Ike had an agenda and a plan and the main 'problem' was it all depended on being able to have a 'cheap' military with the CIA operating behind the scenes and the big nuclear stick hanging in the background. Hence the Air Force as primary nuclear delivery is going to be the biggest service, the Navy will have a semi-minor role in defense against enemy sea-borne assets but nothing like it had historically and finally the Army is just about useless with no one to fight and no means to get to one in a timely manner. Even given the "point defense" role there was going to be only a very small Army and the US would have had little ability to project 'power' beyond threatening to use nukes to gets its way. (Note that worked in Korea against China so the precedent was indeed there)

Unfortunately the way it was implemented simply meant that the Navy and Army spent most of the time simply justifying their existence and only intensified the rivalry between the three branches. It's hard to see any SecDef that Ike chooses not doing the same general things but they might have made different specifica decisions. I only have general sources so I don't know who else Ike considered for the job.

I didn't know he did this though!

I'd assumed CAS had been with the USAF since day 1.

Till the official decision the Army still had some fixed wing assets which were dedicated to close air support. Meanwhile the majority of the Air Force was focused on Strategic Bombing and fighter operations which meant most of you "close air support" aircraft were becoming faster and less capable supersonic aircraft. Sure you had a few aircraft that were capable of carrying and dropping "conventional" bombs but they had been DESIGNED for nuclear strike not dropping hard bombs on targets close to friendly lines. This legacy was what the US carried into Vietnam and through today where the AF would rather have another "new" supersonic "fighter" plane that MIGHT be capable of closer air support rather than a dedicated close air support aircraft.

The USAF being much more focused on its strategic role and the Army and Navy having greater interest in aviation, space and nuclear strike capability sounds like it would make

Stopped? But yes a more balanced military does sound like a fun concept to explore but keep in mind the primary goal was a lower defense expenditure not necessarily "balanced" and what's obvious today wasn't so much then. Still having the Air Force with manned bombers, the Navy with missile submarines and the Army with ICBMs and various defensive missiles would make more sense than what we have. And again the whole idea was a "cheap" way to balance the Soviet conventional threat with massive retaliation as a default in any conflict.

Yeah, ITAR has not been good for US aerospace... I wonder how much that was responsible for retarding American innovation in high tech fields.

According to some it's the major cause why we don't have 'cheap-and-easy' access to space atm, I have my doubts :)

And the fickle funding and support might actually be an advantage - in OTL NASA has the funding and political support to dream big but no funding and political support for actually making the big dreams a reality - a harsher environment could help the various US aerospace actors focus better. Or maybe the relative Soviet success was actually based elsewhere, and they were doing well despite much lower funding, and less funding in the USA would in fact just hurt things.

Pretty much what I think as "we" got spoiled by the "panic" spending/support and it has warped both NASA and public perceptions to the point I'm not sure we could get away with doing it "right" from square one which is really what needs to happen.

That is a very interesting thought. I can just see it now... A real David-versus-Goliath story of the race between the well funded USAF program that doesn't have much support from its parent organization and the plucky underdog of the underfunded Army program which has the support of an army fighting to stay relevant in an era heavily favoring the airmen.

fasquardon

Heh ;)

Randy
 
I did want to point out that it's not "all" the Air Force either and I should be clear that a major factor was the politics post WWII. (Granted the AF wasn't exactly angels either and they still would had 'issues' along the way) Truman and Eisenhower both were more directed towards domestic rather than world affairs and it showed in both the defense policy and spending. Truman took his election as a 'mandate' to continue his policies of 'normalization' post war and Ike of course was fixated on keeping military spending low. As I believe I noted the easiest way to get an 'early' ICBM program is to have Dewey elected as he was already on course to increase defense spending, and raising taxes from Truman's post-war cuts, which would have alleviated many of the budget and project cuts that happened OTL. Of course that butterflies away any Ike Presidency and probably Nixon too until much later if at all.

And there's no guarantee the Atlas gets built either as I also noted the most 'advanced' work was being done in the Army and Navy programs while the Air Force wasn't very interested. So we can imagine what a Von Braun designed "ICBM" might look like which will probably be much closer to R-7 Semyorka than Atlas or Titan.

Randy
 
In order to get a substantial jump on the operational date of USA's first missile, I would suggest a dual POD. One element is that indeed the MX-774 program is funded and extended without hiatus. However glancing at the history the OP provides, which is backed up by others such as at Encyclopedia Astronautica, it seems to me that Convair actually lost little time in the gap, which was not more than 3 years before the program leading to OTL Atlas was authorized, by 1951 in fact. In the three years between the tests of the 3 HIROC models that were the outcome of MX-774 and the Air Force's renewal of the development contract, Convair continued to work privately on the ICBM concept. Furthermore in 1955 Atlas was given top priority; perhaps if it had that from 1951 it might have gotten to the various stages of development somewhat earlier, but vice versa this does suggest that overall it was being pushed nearly as fast as possible all along. Considering how rapidly relevant state of the art, in rocket engines and in control electronics, was advancing that decade, we might question whether it was possible to push success many years farther back. And indeed as late as the Mercury orbital phase in 1961 and '62, the Atlas boosters available to NASA were still somewhat prone to failure! Eventually they became quite reliable indeed, but bear in mind that the first "operational" Atlas base at Vandenberg was rushed into service for political reasons in the wake of Sputnik, and was not actually operational for some time after that.

By the way the idea that earlier success with a more or less functional ICBM would buy more time for early Space Race launches to be on better shaken down, more reliable vehicles assumes that the Space Race itself would not be pushed forward by that very success! OTL, after all, the Soviets launched Sputnik pretty much as soon as they could; fortunately it was the International Geophysical Year, which would not be the case earlier, and Sputnik flew in the context of American boasting about its plans to launch Vanguard in the course of that 18 month "year." But if in fact either the USA or USSR had an ICBM of R-7 or OTL Atlas capabilities operational, why doubt that they would follow through, within a year or so at latest, with a satellite launch? If the USA did it first, very possibly there would be no "Space Race," or something called that perhaps might be a leisurely and gentlemanly affair compared to the US panic at Soviet successes of OTL. Many people then suggest that without Sputnik/Vostok panic, causing Kennedy to set a self-imposed deadline for a crewed Lunar mission, the US program would develop methodically and sustainably, on a modest but solid budget constraining the program to build carefully and that at some point this ATL would overtake our overall accomplishments OTL, for we are allegedly severely damaged by NASA developing a dysfunctional institutional culture, poisoned and spoiled by the Apollo glory days.

However--the few TLs I have seen that begin with this premise (such as nixonhead's quite well written Kolyma's Shadow for instance, taking as its premise the early death of Korolev in Stalin's 1940 purge) actually don't seem to deliver much for the space nut. For reasons that seem plausible though I think not unquestionable, the Air Force develops Dyna-Soar and the Minerva launch system, but while the latter is quite capable along the lines recommended by the "steady and slow ATL" crowd, the crewed vehicle is far too heavy, requiring the superior launch capability versus OTL Titans to sort of match Gemini performance, and being very much a dead end in terms of possible Lunar missions, which as of the TL's hiatus some years ago stagnated as a promise of dubious probability of delivery in the Muskie administration of the late 60s's/early 70s. (Americans have a rocket system robust enough for a quick Lunar flyby but their crewed ships are too massive and also have unsuitable thermal protection for a return from Lunar space; Soviets have designed suitably light capsule craft that could do it, but their rockets are inadequate). It is possible that if the TL goes on the tortoise strategy advocates will get their fanservice at last with some sort of space station program that evolves and never terminates, leading to sustainable and never ending Lunar missions maybe. But the plodding, which far from seeming sustainable to me seemed to stagnate and stumble all too plausibly, suggests to me that the more realistic expectation is that without something like Kennedy's panic, a slow and incremental sideline space program might simply deliver less. The idea that Apollo burned us out may be wrong; it may be that the high intensity took us to a high water mark that indeed we are dithering on surpassing, but perhaps without that surge, we'd be even farther behind.

A true Space Race may or may not require Soviet firsts to panic the USA, but if it is in the cards, I daresay its milestone dates will come earlier if the big ICBMs also come earlier. If Americans are working harder and earlier on ICBMs, will not the Soviets want to keep pace and step up their prioritization of their missile programs too? But even if they do pour more coal onto their efforts, can they work faster than they did OTL? Or will panic in the Kremlin lead merely to rushed failures, that might lead to heads literally rolling--heads that OTL did eventually deliver at least some of the bacon, so that the net effect is actual delay relative to OTL--or even a situation where the Americans have a large missile first strike capability while the Soviets have nothing, tempting someone in Washington to order a first strike to get the "inevitable" war over on the most favorable terms?

The best argument against such a Jack D Ripper solution to the Cold War is that OTL we pretty much had that advantage anyway, the Soviets were terrified if we knew how weak they were we would preemptively destroy them, and US intelligence was good enough that at least some factions were reporting pretty accurately how vulnerable they were--and yet, even in the heat of the Cuban Missile Crisis, during which an all out war probably would have left the USA horribly damaged but still functional while the Soviets would have been wiped out, no such preemption was launched. (It certainly was considered, but Kennedy held back and searched for any honorable alternative and eventually found one). So on one hand, we did come close, on the other the consensus among most people was that to have done that would have been barbaric--and while the USA would probably have survived (not without major losses, such as New York and Washington DC, to be sure, as those targets were among those the Soviets would make fanatical efforts to strike) Europe and Japan along with South Korea and Taiwan would probably be nearly exterminated, the remnants being miserable fractions living in miserable conditions, not to mention the severe cultural loss. In effect, if Americans placed any value on our client-allies, even in the half generation or so we had asymmetrical power to devastate our main foe without facing consequences nearly as severe, our hostage allies would have suffered nearly as badly as the Soviet bloc, and so we were already caught in the logic of avoidance of Mutual Assured Destruction. For this reason, I would hope that even if the Soviets spend a half decade or longer under effective threat of annihilation from US missiles alone (never mind the bombers) they still will be given time to develop their own countermeasures, if belatedly.

But in such circumstances, there would be no doubt of the superiority of American technology over Soviet (even in the few cases where actually it was not so much the truth--we'd be smugly overconfident). But barring really substantial changes in Soviet ways of doing things, which I don't dismiss as impossible but am quite hard pressed to define even when I want to, in reality Western confidence would be justified. The fact is, Soviet early success in space was largely a matter of smoke and mirrors, enabled, as discussion here has mentioned, by the fact that their minimum size ICMB had to be bigger than ours, since they were not capable of miniaturizing hydrogen bombs as well as we could. It gave the impression Soviet space science was just plain superior when actually their advantages were well within American grasp--had we prioritized spending development money on such rockets.

So then, to get back to the OP question, can we accelerate the date on which American ICBMs are operational? We could then discuss whether the Soviets could keep up with us and even as OTL overtake us in appearance by launching their first Sputnik before our first satellite, only in 1953 or '54 instead of '57.

As I said earlier, merely sustaining MX-774 would probably not speed up operational capability by more than a couple years, since Convair did not sit on their laurels even when in the funding wilderness between '48 and '51. Perhaps giving it higher priority in those lost years might have had the job done maybe 3, perhaps 4 years earlier. But then again, the earlier an Atlas version launches, the bigger it is likely to be, and the added size probably should be given extra time to be perfected. What then can be done further?

I have my own personal little hobbyhorse, which is to suggest that perhaps if key players in American liquid fuel rocketry had turned to the use of hydrogen peroxide as their prime oxidant, perhaps that would have enabled given milestones to be reached sooner.

An alternative I am not as fond of myself is that maybe solid fuel rockets might have been pushed sooner and harder, having been advanced by leaps and bounds over prior solid state of the art by Parsons and others during the war years. However, while solid boosters have become quite ubiquitous in the West since around 1970, there are deep reasons it took a while to get them developed to the point anyone wanted to rely on them. I don't know enough about the people working on solids in the 1950s to guess whether throwing a lot of money and priority at them could have accelerated their work to the point that American satellites and crewed spaceships, as well as warheads, would be mounted on solids by the late 1950s. Still, that is an option someone might want to pursue.

Another is earlier and more concentrated effort based on hypergolic propellants. For reasons I will explain if they aren't known to everyone, I dislike this option very much and objectively, there is a good chance we'd have some serious grief doing it. But then again the Chinese heavy lift program is all based on hypergolics.

I personally think that if more effort had been put into hydrogen peroxide as primary oxidant, perhaps the program doing that could anticipate the OTL achievements of ker-lox rockets by several years. Combine then a choice to focus on peroxide versus LOX, perhaps only say at Convair, with the Air Force not letting the MX-774 effort lapse, and perhaps then we can justify some sort of Atlas relative being first launched before 1955 and it becoming a reliable staple of both the first generation ICBM defense and the early satellite launch and perhaps manned launch missions before 1960.

This post is too long already, I will cut it short for now and come back later with the case for peroxide!
 
However--the few TLs I have seen that begin with this premise (such as nixonhead's quite well written Kolyma's Shadow for instance, taking as its premise the early death of Korolev in Stalin's 1940 purge) actually don't seem to deliver much for the space nut. For reasons that seem plausible though I think not unquestionable, the Air Force develops Dyna-Soar and the Minerva launch system, but while the latter is quite capable along the lines recommended by the "steady and slow ATL" crowd, the crewed vehicle is far too heavy, requiring the superior launch capability versus OTL Titans to sort of match Gemini performance, and being very much a dead end in terms of possible Lunar missions, which as of the TL's hiatus some years ago stagnated as a promise of dubious probability of delivery in the Muskie administration of the late 60s's/early 70s. (Americans have a rocket system robust enough for a quick Lunar flyby but their crewed ships are too massive and also have unsuitable thermal protection for a return from Lunar space; Soviets have designed suitably light capsule craft that could do it, but their rockets are inadequate). It is possible that if the TL goes on the tortoise strategy advocates will get their fanservice at last with some sort of space station program that evolves and never terminates, leading to sustainable and never ending Lunar missions maybe. But the plodding, which far from seeming sustainable to me seemed to stagnate and stumble all too plausibly, suggests to me that the more realistic expectation is that without something like Kennedy's panic, a slow and incremental sideline space program might simply deliver less. The idea that Apollo burned us out may be wrong; it may be that the high intensity took us to a high water mark that indeed we are dithering on surpassing, but perhaps without that surge, we'd be even farther behind.
Actually, Shevek, Kolyma is done. Might want to read it again.
 
Actually, Shevek, Kolyma is done. Might want to read it again.

Nope, not at all, he's resting, that's all, really, he just is thinking of new content, should be new DLC... Er, content, I mean posts, (why yet I am a Mass Effect/Mass Effect Andromeda fan why do you ask? :) ) any day now...

Randy
 
Actually, Shevek, Kolyma is done. Might want to read it again.

Here's what the author said:
...Offline events mean that I’m likely to have a lot less time for writing than has been the case up until now, so my current feeling is that Part-IV marks the last of the ‘formal’ Parts of the timeline. I am hoping to write more individual posts on specific topics, some set within the period of the existing parts, others taking the story forward into the late 80s and beyond, but these will be coming out on an ad-hoc basis. I’m also planning to continue the illustrations, especially to fill in some notable gaps (M-1, Liberty, Safir…), but again, the timetable is uncertain.

So thanks to everyone for your support and comments. Special thanks also to e of pi and Brainbin for their huge support and inspiration, without which this timeline would not exist. I hope you’ve enjoyed reading the story, and I look forward to providing future updates for your enjoyment.

Later posts by nixonshead put the probability of any of these ad-hoc posts lower, but at no point did nixonhead ever state the TL was finished.

I did go back and glance over Part IV, and while I had forgotten much that was accomplished, I think as of the early 1980s when it terminates the ATL falls short of OTL.
After all, for a TL focused on astronautics, the situation was left pretty sad. If we are indeed to regard the TL as closed, with no more events defined by the author to guide our speculations, than this merely emphasizes the point I was trying to make--which is that without the Space Race stimulus, the notion that some sort of Eisenhowerian, tortoise-like slow and steady plod would have us ahead of OTL and generally more pleased with ourselves regarding human astronautics may be quite fatuous, and instead we might well simply stagnate at an even lower level than we have thus far OTL! I for one assumed the TL was going to go forward to a place where the score of overall achievement in the Earth-Moon system anyway draws near to OTL accomplishments overall. This might not mean we have a Moon landing in the scope of the published TL, but if not, we'd bloody well better have a superior space station or other LEO level of accomplishment.

After all, the TL seemed to make a big deal out of development of the Minerva launch system, ostensibly because it would be flexible and offered some room for expansion. It would seem to exist to give some flesh to the assertion I've seen posted in years since that a good space program does not need more than 30 tons capability to LEO to accomplish great things. Yet, in fact Minerva turned out to be reserved for just a handful of accomplishments in no way surpassing OTL and always at later dates. It launched the DynaSoar, but despite a lot of enthusiasm this spaceplane turns out to be pretty much an expensive dead end. It also was the launch vehicle for Columbia, a belatedly developed sort of mini-Apollo, CSM only, developed for a Lunar program that falls short of Apollo OTL, barely capable of a handful of Lunar orbital missions less capable than Apollo 8 OTL, and these nearly a decade later. It launches some mini-Skylabs, and there is one Columbia mission that is a rendezvous with a Soviet Salyut type space station, a glorified Apollo-Soyuz type mission in other words. The Soviets are well behind their OTL accomplishments too, having like the USA developed two different orbital vehicles, one sort of spaceplane like (Chelomei's Raketoplan), the other a kind of 2/3 scale Soyuz-lite. No one makes a vehicle that carry more than 2 astronauts (unless some of the Dynasoar missions squeezed in a third, I forget).

Now a person who wants to point to signs of hope might say, well, look, there are several small scale but cheaper, sustainable launch systems to consider. There is, in addition to Minerva, another USAF purchase, the Liberty system developed by Ford, which can launch loads up to 15 tonnes (half Minerva) at a lower price than Minerva--but is far from being man-rated. Also the Air Force wants a successor to Dyna-Soar; it could easily have been launched on Minerva but they develop an air launch mode instead--which gives them operational flexibility to be sure, but also puts a pretty hard growth limit on the thing, which is developed mainly to expand downmass capability to 3 tonnes or so. Any Soviet advances are overshadowed by the fact that the USSR is not in a fundamentally better place than OTL and is thus liable to collapse more or less on schedule around 1990. This being a TL terminating in 1980, no one knows that yet, but there is no apparent reason for the USSR to last any longer.

The Minerva system was the major reason to be optimistic, but in this TL, with no commercial use of its flexible capabilities despite their being in range of what commerce wanted OTL, and with the Air Force getting seven year itch with it and seeking new allegedly better alternatives to replace it with, we are quite unlikely to see the potential of it incrementally lowering launch costs by means of economies of scale in procurement. Liberty as I said is cut-rate and unlikely to be man-rateable, and so the American picture is bleak. Clearly the hardware to enable relatively inexpensive Moon missions is sort of there--I say sort of, because Minerva would only be cheap if everyone were using it heavily. With a maximum 30 tonne payload it would take something like 4 launches to match Saturn V's throw weight to Lunar transfer orbit, and it is not so clear 4 Minerva launches are all that much cheaper than 1 Saturn V, OTL, whereas to scant the Lunar mission with less mass than OTL with say three or God forbid 2 launches would mean a more marginal and probably severely risky Lunar landing attempt. To go in style, to accomplish more than Apollo could in the fullness of time, would seem to require some level of investment in space travel not evident in the politics of the TL.

There was teaser about Branson teaming up with Keyser of OTL (and ATL) OTRAG, who but nixonshead can guess where that would lead? Probably just Bransonesque stunts I suppose, and God have mercy on his soul if he is trusting to Keyser!

I suppose one can argue that the longer the Moon is not landed on, the more likely some later politician, in the late 80s or early '90s, might take it as a worthy thing to do next, and the tortoise wins the race school of thought says that when they do that, the price in real terms to set up a suitable Moon expedition would be cheaper than it was in the 60s, and thus the effort would be sustained. But there was nothing absolutely unsustainable about Apollo OTL, it was just a decision to cut a large but entirely affordable budget because the mission had been accomplished. So, supposing there is a Moon effort in say the mid 1990s, why would we doubt that after making necessary upgrades to Minerva, or junking it entirely, or using it fanatically to fill up a propellant depot, or what have you, after the first landing why should it be more sustainable than Apollo was OTL? It might be cheaper (though I doubt that if it is going to accomplish as much or more than Apollo did) but "the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence," and if people in the ATL are cutting a program that only cost say 3/4 of what Apollo cost, they won't know they are mothballing a bargain; they'll just look at the sticker price and scream anyway then shut it down, no moonbases, no space colonies, no Mars expeditions or asteroid missions or any of that, any more than OTL.
 
Later posts by nixonshead put the probability of any of these ad-hoc posts lower, but at no point did nixonhead ever state the TL was finished.

It was indeed my intention to carry on with some more ad-hoc updates, but I got diverted onto The Snow Flies and other projects. For now I think it's safe to say Kolyma's Shadow is finished.

I did go back and glance over Part IV, and while I had forgotten much that was accomplished, I think as of the early 1980s when it terminates the ATL falls short of OTL. After all, for a TL focused on astronautics, the situation was left pretty sad.

I'd say this is fair in terms of the manned space programme, but the unmanned programme is probably ahead of OTL, largely down to the US agency NESSA being totally decoupled from manned spaceflight and having more stable funding and planning cycles than OTL's NASA. In the back of my mind was the notion that no Sputnik Shock and resulting Kennedy moment would likely lead to a lower level of manned capability, as without grandstanding international politics there is simply far less justification for putting humans in space rather than robots. Dynasoar/Starlab in the US and the Soviet Chasovoy stations were largely driven by the military trying to find if there was an effective use for man in space - and coming up with the answer "not really". Columbia was a Kennedy-style grandstand event on the cheap, and as with Apollo ended up as a dead-end one-off. At the end of the timeline, the Soviets were planning to continue with space station operations (largely for the diplomatic prestige, and to keep their industry busy), whereas US manned spaceflight was to be a new air-launched shuttlecraft basically doing the job of OTL's unmanned X-37, short forays to orbit for testing new technologies. The only reasons it was manned at all was due to automatics not being fully trusted for those missions yet and lobbying from the Air Force's contingent of astronaut space jocks.

So yes, I'd say the manned programme in Kolyma did indeed stagnate at a lower level than OTL, but unmanned and commercial applications were ahead.


After all, the TL seemed to make a big deal out of development of the Minerva launch system, ostensibly because it would be flexible and offered some room for expansion. It would seem to exist to give some flesh to the assertion I've seen posted in years since that a good space program does not need more than 30 tons capability to LEO to accomplish great things. Yet, in fact Minerva turned out to be reserved for just a handful of accomplishments in no way surpassing OTL and always at later dates. It launched the DynaSoar, but despite a lot of enthusiasm this spaceplane turns out to be pretty much an expensive dead end. It also was the launch vehicle for Columbia, a belatedly developed sort of mini-Apollo, CSM only, developed for a Lunar program that falls short of Apollo OTL, barely capable of a handful of Lunar orbital missions less capable than Apollo 8 OTL, and these nearly a decade later. It launches some mini-Skylabs, and there is one Columbia mission that is a rendezvous with a Soviet Salyut type space station, a glorified Apollo-Soyuz type mission in other words.

That's Dynasoar-Chasovoy you're thinking of. Minerva was also used for supporting many unmanned missions, and that's where its flexibility came into play. Unfortunately this was a two-edged sword, as the fact it could be tailored to cover most mission needs meant it was hard to justify anyone developing a competitor, which in turn led to restrictions on launch rate as commercial customers were limited to a couple of launch sites and were at the mercy of Air Force priorities. Liberty (which uses many of the same concepts as the expendable first version of Falcon-9 to drive down costs) addresses this later in the TL, and by the 1980s would have been supporting a flourishing commercial launch market.

The Soviets are well behind their OTL accomplishments too, having like the USA developed two different orbital vehicles, one sort of spaceplane like (Chelomei's Raketoplan), the other a kind of 2/3 scale Soyuz-lite. No one makes a vehicle that carry more than 2 astronauts (unless some of the Dynasoar missions squeezed in a third, I forget).

Dynasoar Mk.II did indeed have a crew of 3. Zarya had a maximum crew of 2, with Orel only managing one.

Any Soviet advances are overshadowed by the fact that the USSR is not in a fundamentally better place than OTL and is thus liable to collapse more or less on schedule around 1990. This being a TL terminating in 1980, no one knows that yet, but there is no apparent reason for the USSR to last any longer.

I was pushing towards the reforms introduced after Shelepin's death leading the USSR to a softer landing, but hadn't worked it through to a conclusion. I suspect it could have evolved into something like the 'reformed' USSR that was the backdrop of The Snow Flies, but a collapse is at least equally possible.

There was teaser about Branson teaming up with Keyser of OTL (and ATL) OTRAG, who but nixonshead can guess where that would lead? Probably just Bransonesque stunts I suppose, and God have mercy on his soul if he is trusting to Keyser!

My feeling on this was it would probably have been a one-shot suborbital hop sometime in the early 1990s, that could well have ended in disaster, but that it would open the door to private spaceflight as not being completely impossible. Once the dot-com billionaires turn up in the mid-1990s, I could see it leading to more of them putting money into space tourism type schemes a few years earlier than OTL. Maybe.

I suppose one can argue that the longer the Moon is not landed on, the more likely some later politician, in the late 80s or early '90s, might take it as a worthy thing to do next, and the tortoise wins the race school of thought says that when they do that, the price in real terms to set up a suitable Moon expedition would be cheaper than it was in the 60s, and thus the effort would be sustained.

I think in that TL, the only chance for a government-funded lunar landing would be once almost everything needed was already developed for other uses. Similar to Columbia, where they had the launcher, didn't need a lander, and so only had to fund the capsule. Unfortunately, for a Moon landing that would probably mean pining hopes on the Soviet stations developing into lunar stations with their supporting infrastructure (including propellant depots), so all that's left to develop are the landers - and that seems a very uncertain route. The more likely way would be to wait until the 2010s for an alt-Elon Musk billionaire, for whom the lack of any landing means that we haven't yet 'been there, done that' and chooses to aim at the Moon rather than Mars.
 
@nixonshead:

Very well then. There isn't much justification for using this thread as some sort of proxy KS epilogue thread. All that is on topic here is my argument that it is silly to maintain that avoiding the feverish OTL Apollo Moon Race automatically and with great certainty guarantees a rosier path for human space flight in the longer run, a sentiment many of your thread followers took as an article of faith in their comments.

As you left it, one could visualize a future renaissance in HSF, especially if the world went down a rosier path in general--say, soft landing USSR turning into a more robust and liberal post-Soviet Russia, while the West is less bitter; I would say due to avoiding the excesses of Thatcher and Reagan, with retaining the conventional wisdom that a modest amount of state intervention and a politics of something for everyone other than trickle down makes Western society more attractive; a more relaxed and generous foreign policy with due attention to the looming environmental problems and resource crunches causes a foresightful international program of judicious balancing of interests of First and Third world, lowering the savage tensions of OTL lying behind the ideological extremism of the OTL post-Cold War....in short, a Liberal-Wank! In such a world, with various legacy hardware lying about and a gradually developing global economy putting demand on launch services, the launchers may evolve. I just pushed what looked to me like a conservative stretch of Minerva in Silverbird launch calculator up to a 60 tonne payload to your 250 kM standard orbit from Canaveral, so that puts an Apollo type moon landing in reach of two launches, and assuming Minerva enjoys a rise in demand lowering unit costs, those two might cost as little as half a Saturn V launch.

But my guess is, when you started to write the TL, you expected that you might possibly be demonstrating the CW of slow and steady wins the race--only to find, as you gamed out the institutional interests of major players in policymaking, that the time would never be quite right for that moonshot after all. Minerva as you left in in the B model could put at most 28.5 tonnes to LEO, and with that constraint we'd need something like 5 launches to match Apollo capability. One does not need that for a mere flag-placing, footprints and then a celebratory "been there, done that!" but to justify claims a more steady process with less panic would surely lead to a more capable and sustained presence, one certainly does need to at least match OTL capability; to do it with 5 launches seems rather daunting and quite likely to cost overall considerably more than the averaged cost of a Saturn V-Apollo launch of OTL. At under 30 tonnes capability, one can match a Skylab, but again it would take several launches and a more complex demanding program requiring the docking of several components.

The ATL world of Kolyma's Shadow subjectively seemed--less dangerous perhaps than ours, but also performing in general on a more cautious, less impressive level. Mind there were some pretty cool things happening there, but overall it seemed that on the whole you hewed to a pattern where on balance it is not a better or worse world than ours. And so, assuming humanity does not get lottery lucky and that OTL is a fair guide to the mix of good, bad and indifferent one can expect of real life, there seems little warrant to assume the best, and that to estimate the chances that anyone ever reaches the Moon by a certain date, one has to play the odds of petty factional interests and ask, at what point can someone afford to go and be particularly motivated to want to?

USA is too complacent to buckle down and commit, and the natural, automatic drift of the sort of flaky economic development we can expect in an ATL that assumes ours is benchmark-normal precludes the idea that space travel will just automatically get cheaper and cheaper until someone can want to do it on a personal whim.

USSR is going down, maybe not as low as OTL, but almost certainly into an era of limits that can't disregard costs the way the OTL Soviet one did until that hard crash--if the Americans don't push neither will they, and then after their crash even if they acquire the will, they won't feel they have the means.

Europe and Japan are probably no worse off than OTL but not better off, and for either or even both together to scrape together an Apollo type budget just for that purpose seems unreasonable.

This basically leaves the Chinese to be the ones with something to prove who launch a long belated Space Race the USA may or may not be in a position to respond to, and probably if they want to, ahem, steal a Long March on the West, the smart thing to do is play cards close to their vests and not tip anyone off too soon, which argues for going slow. OTL if the CCP Presidium members awoke tomorrow with a burning passion to land some taikonauts on the Moon and return them, even a scale below Apollo (and you can't go a lot lower without turning it not just into an otherwise pointless stunt, but a dangerous stunt) I believe it would take them at least half a decade to work their hardware up to the capability, and that with a breakneck, sacrifice everything commitment. If their passion is moderated enough they resolve to do it with no more of a GNP share than the USA devoted to Apollo in the 60s it would take them longer, probably twice as long.

So in your ATL I'm guessing the probable time frame for first moon landing is the 2020s and there is no guarantee that even that would involve a slow and steady wins the race investment in infrastructure that would mean a more sustained and expanding human presence in space once this late moon race was won by someone. It might, but it might just as well be the same flash in the pan as OTL.

The only thing that is lacking for HSF on a much larger scale is will, and an ATL where we don't specify some ASB reason for more resolve-alien artifacts lying around the system derelict or something like that--the same apathy we have OTL seems likeliest to prevail.

It is argued that a more economical approach will pave a trail of institutional interests desiring to sustain it, but why should that self-interest be more effective than the larger-scale superhighway to the sky investments made OTL? If anything I suspect that Big Aerospace had more reason to institutionalize big NASA budgets OTL than smaller aerospace interests of a tortoise ATL would have the clout to do--a little investment is easier to disperse and shuffle the people off to consolation prize alternate jobs than the gigantic complex we built for Apollo, where cutting it back caused major industrial scale trauma. If Congress and Nixon could face huge billboards in Seattle asking the last person leaving the city to please turn out the lights, and survive the massive layoffs of NASA contractors of the early 70s in general, surely shutting down something 1/5 the scale is a matter of partisan political whim with practically no serious political consequences for them to worry about?

It is only if one can justify a claim that a program could accomplish what Apollo did and more for substantially less money--not talking about saving 10 or 15 percent here, talking about slashing the price in half--that it seems reasonable to suggest such an ATL could come out ahead of ours. But what reason is there to claim that, unless one has a means of slashing the costs of launches to low orbit in general in half or to less? Another possibility is to suggest that a program with the same total price or higher is more sustainable if its cost per year is a lot lower. But here we are trading off money for time--even if we assume Apollo wasted a lot and a program that took twice as long would cost considerably less than half as much per year, still it clearly must take say 12 years to accomplish what Apollo did in 8, and those extra four years are all the more time for political winds to shift, and question why do this at all, no matter at how low a bargain basement price. Again, the very economy of it may make it more vulnerable to cuts as something marginal and optional! To account for a persistent resolve to keep plodding on steadily, regardless of shifting political fashions and changing circumstances, demands that there is a consensually shared reason for the goal, and if one can conjure up a strong reason like that to secure a steady slow 12 year program, one can probably just as well justify a giddy fast paced 8 year program, and then sustain the high peak funding reached for that as an increasingly accustomed plateau. Either way the US taxpayer can afford it, it is pennies on the tax dollar, but a supersized, vainglorious, Mars or Bust with lots of Saturn V launches every year sort of epic program is both better circus for the public and a bigger gravy train for the contractors.

All we lack is the reason, the rationale, the justification. Lacking that--what secures a slow and steady program from termination on a whim? And if that happens, where is the incremental improvement that so many assume bring any goal within reach given mere lapse of time?

This was the argument I alluded to your TL as a thought experiment on. I think it is nice you assume NESSA, in charge of scientific space probes, will enjoy support superior to OTL unmanned space exploration at NASA, due to being insulated from budget raids by the Buck Rogers crowd, but really, what is the public interest (as perceived by hard-nosed politicians) to guarantee its modest budget? I'd fear that sooner or later, someone in Washington will axe it too, if not for fiscal than perhaps for ideological reasons.

It gets back to this thread's OP in that, if the USA can push ahead to be several years earlier, but the Soviets cannot match the Americans--and this is plausible to me because the Russians were pretty strongly motivated, while the USA clearly was not firing on all available cylinders and yet was, overall and practically speaking, far ahead at every step--then Americans will be in a position to launch something earlier than the Soviets possibly can, and thus the OTL space race panic will not be operational.

I don't believe Kolyma's Shadow is conclusive proof than USA first to orbit must mean no space race ever, and it is also possible that without the whip of space panic, we might nevertheless match Apollo and improve on it, perhaps. But I wished to address the assumption that avoiding the Space Race quite automatically puts us ahead of the game.

TLs have to be worked out methodically to be plausible. You did that, and the results were kind of sad as far as HSF goes. Someone else might find a different path to be sure, but I think the widespread assumption that Apollo burned our bridges is based on faulty metaphors and wishful thinking, on the persistent fallacy of the grass being always greener on the other side of the fence, not on some proven analysis.

So, my feelings about wanking the US missile program in the 1950s are somewhat mixed, but I certainly enjoy this challenge, and might be optimistic about the knock-on effects of an early Atlas.

I just wanted to sound a precautionary note against unjustified wishful thinking that's all.

And I was pleased to revisit the world of KS (and advertise it to those who have not looked at it), melancholy though aspects of it are. Noting that the only thing wrong with HSF in that world is exactly what went wrong here; the potential of some of the technologies discussed or inspired among fans that are alternate possible offshoots was pretty high!
 
Getting back to hydrogen peroxide, first let me illustrate what a reasonable ATL peroxide oxidized Atlas, assuming the decision to downsize the goal in the light of lighter H-bomb designs had been preempted.

Here are some statistics of OTL Atlas--this collated from Encyclopedia Astronautica articles on the OTL engines and this site's description of the Mercury launcher.

Gross all up mass (no payload)
115,700 kg
Propellant load
110,300
Dry mass inferred
5400
Various anecdotal sources claim the tank portion of this was as little as 2 metric tonnes, due to being finely milled. The tank was stainless steel instead of aluminum; this is great for switching H2O2 because stainless steels are among the best, least reactive containers to put HTHP in.
Engines--2 LR89-5-- for each, vacuum thrust 822.5 kN, at vacuum ISP of 290 sec, burning for 131 sec, engine dry mass 720 kg
----------1 LR105-5, vac thrust 386.4 kN, vac ISP 316 sec burns to propellant exhaustion at 310 seconds, dry mass 460 kg

Subtracting the engine masses leaves 3500 kg left over, a lot more than 2 tonnes but after all we need mass for other auxiliary stuff, don't we? That stuff will tend to scale with the engines, being infrastructure such as thrust structures; assume we add 1500 kg to the 1900 kg of the combined engine dry weights, so we multiply each engine kg by 1.79.

The Silverbird Launch Calculator wants stage mass breakdowns, the vacuum thrust and ISP of the engines, and then if your rocket design is close enough to the data base it is based on (it is basically a glorified n-dimensional slide rule, or lookup table) it will estimate the performance to a specified orbit or escape trajectory. There is a mode whereby one can specify strap-on boosters burning in parallel with the first stage. The Atlas was essentially a single stage rocket with two liquid boosters that happened to draw their fuel from the single central tank that fed the sustainer as well--but we can define the dry mass in terms of the engine masses multiplied by that approximate 1.8 factor. One also needs to input the propellant mass each booster engine will burn, which based on vacuum thrust and ISP and a burn of 131 seconds I estimate was 37,800 kg per engine. This leaves 34,500 for the core sustainer--good for 276.8 seconds burn, not 310, but if we figure the engine throttled back later in the burn this would square.

Assigning 2850 dry mass to the core stage and thus 1275 to each of the two side booster engine sets, which mass is dropped on booster stage burnout (here actually set by a timer as there is still more propellant for them to burn when they drop) the calculator gives 2300 kg to a 200 km orbit at the inclination of Cape Canaveral's latitude of 28.5. This is considerably better than the given payload of 1.4 tonnes and so I figure that we need to be more stringent, crediting less mass to the drop-engines and more to the core. The least we can credit the drop boosters with is the dry engine weight--figuring at 850 kg each (a little more) that leaves the core massing 3700. On that assumption we still get 1600 kg to LEO. It is a low orbit to be sure!

Now then, having arrived at a model for the Atlas that seems reasonably close to the reality in Silverbird, what happens if we were to change the propellant mix over to hydrogen peroxide instead of oxygen, and scale it up on the assumption that the booster engines were meant to be five essentially identical engine cores, one of which (the central sustainer) has a high nozzle expansion ratio of 25 for better efficiency in vacuum, while the 4 boosters have a lower ratio of 8 that serves better at sea level? These were the ratios in the LR 105 and 89 respectively.

In addition to Silverbird, I have fairly recently been apprised of a rocket engine calculator. I can't afford to buy the full features version which does all kinds of nice things like factor in various types of fuel pumps, but I can compare performances of various propellant mixes, at different chamber pressures and nozzle expansion ratios. Using this tool I find that switching over to hydrogen peroxide, 100 percent pure stuff, at a chamber pressure of 41 bar (same as the LR89) one can expect essentially the same thrust. The exhaust comes out at a lower speed but with more mass flow. The ratio of oxidant by mass to a kilogram of fuel consumed is 6.2 instead of 2.25 for the OTL ker-lox engines. This combined with the fact that pure peroxide has a density of 1.45 versus LOX at 1.15 means that overall, the complete mix is 1.3 times denser. This high density offsets the lower Isp and so performance is remarkably similar. Furthermore higher density means that although the total mass flow is higher, the volume that needs to be pumped to chamber pressure is lower. Looking at pure peroxide catalyzed as a monopropellant, 41 bar pressurized peroxide could reach theoretical exhaust speeds of 1800 m/sec or more, which I believe is in the same ballpark as the gas generator mix in the more advanced later H-1 and F-1 engines, which I believe would reach well under 2500 m/sec if run as rockets. The reason the turbopump gas generators in the later 1960s ker-lox engines ran so cool is that their mixes were far from optimal, to cool down the gases to the point that turbines could run on them to pump the fuel. But already back during WWII, von Braun's engines including those used on V-2s were pumped with catalyzed peroxide instead, which would run even cooler, and in the USA designs as late as the Redstone medium range missile, used to launch suborbital Mercury missions, continued to use this method of pumping the main propellants. Meanwhile in the USSR, the R-7 engines also ran this way, and to this day the Soyuz rocket engines that today are the only method we have operational to put American astronauts at the ISS still use it! Clearly then continuing to rely on pure hydrogen peroxide monopropellant to run the pumps of this first-generation ICBM is quite reasonable. On paper higher energy gas generators would be more efficient, using less propellant to generate the power, but the scale of pumping power is low enough that the difference won't matter much, especially since if we use peroxide in the main combustion chamber as well, we have simplified three fluids down to just two, and since the power requirements are somewhat lower.

Most importantly, the peroxide fed chambers will burn considerably cooler than ker-lox, by hundreds of degrees out of 3000 and more--for the LR89, the chamber temperature is nearly 3500 K, versus 2950 for a peroxide version.

It is for this reason mainly that I believe that had a major effort been made to develop kerosene-peroxide engines early in the USA, for high priority missile projects, that it may have been possible to deliver engines of a given combination of performance and reliability several years earlier than for an equivalent ker-lox engine.

In addition to that, for the specified purpose of making an ICBM, it may have been possible to treat peroxide, along with unproblematic kerosene fuel, as essentially a "storable" propellant. I do believe that to keep the peroxide stable, it would have been important to try to keep it near its freezing point, which is below 0 Celsius. But this could be done by the simple expedient of bubbling a chilled neutral gas, such as nitrogen, through the tanks, valving it off on top and rechilling it to bubble back in on the bottom. At a sufficient rate, such gas cooling could probably keep it cold enough even on a hot desert day in direct sunlight. However, the conventional OTL Atlas requiring liquid oxygen could only be kept filled with the stuff quite briefly before it had to be allowed to be valved off to keep the tanks from bursting. Operationally this meant Atlases could not be kept fueled up, and had to be filled with oxygen immediately before a planned launch, which meant an enemy would have a window of a half hour or even many hours before the missiles could be launched. If on the other hand it proved possible for the ATL Atlas-peroxide missiels to keep a load of peroxide cool enough in normal day-night cycles for long periods of time, the missiles could be loaded up and kept on alert for weeks, with only a fraction of the force being stood down for maintenance every month or so. Thus, assuming the peroxide Atlases were functional at all, they would form a much more robust deterrent than the OTL operational one.

Now then I assume as I said that the plan was to develop a single engine core, and by attaching a longer nozzle to the central sustainer, optimize it for vacuum thrust while the otherwise identical boosters get a shorter nozzle for better sea level thrust. However these baseline engine cores would have to be bigger than the kerosene designs to achieve the same initial acceleration off the pad, since the bulk of the mass at launch, the propellant, would mass 30 percent more.

The Big Peroxide Atlas then would have these statistics versus the OTL Atlas D:

Gross all up mass (no payload)
313,740 kg
Propellant load
301,600 = 4*37,800*1.3+ 80,800*1.3; that is 49,150 per booster engine plus 105,000 for the sustainer
Dry mass inferred by extrapolating a core structural mass of 2900 by the ratio of volumes (assumes skin gauge thickness increases in proportion to length, a good assumption for pressure structures like balloons, or the Atlas tank) to 6116.4 kg, plus a heavier engine and associated auxiliary masses--was 800 kg but now we have 5 standard engine cores each 720 being kicked up by 1.3 to 940 kg; assume core engine adds 1600 kg to 6120 for 7720 all up; each booster engine plus associated mass goes up to 1100
Total dry mass is thus 12,140 kg
Engines--4 LR89-Peroxide-SL-- for each, vacuum thrust 1070 kN, at vacuum ISP of 270 sec, burning for 131 sec, engine dry mass 940 kg
----------1 LR89-Peroxide-VAC, vac thrust 1160 kN, vac ISP 294 sec burns to propellant exhaustion at 280 seconds, dry mass 960 kg

Silverbird calculator gives a payload of just over 4 tonnes with these inputs, to a 200 km orbit due east of Cape Canaveral. Note someone might worry that with the propellant load being 1.3 times as dense, it is necessary to beef up the tank balloon structure by that factor, above and beyond having expanded it for higher volume. Now if we believe that the tank itself on an Atlas massed only 2 tonnes, here we have expanded it by 2.3 volume ratio to 4.6, and another 30 percent would add 1375 kg, but our prior accounting lumped in a total of 6120 kg of tank plus other stuff, some of which might also need to be beefed up for denser peroxide and others of which might not. Worst case scenario we must raise that whole mass by 30 percent for an additional 1842. Adding all that to the core dry mass, raising total core mass to 9560, we still will have 2172 tonnes of payload. In the better case we can have a payload 467 kg heavier or 2.64 tonnes, splitting the difference we have 2.4 tonnes. Even in the worst case we come out well ahead of the OTL launcher--as indeed we should, since that was after all the downsized version and this is meant to be the big heavy version designed to lift older style big H bombs! Versus the Silverbird result for the OTL model, we only come out 35 percent ahead which is somewhat depressing; versus the reported 1.4 tonne payload that implies a peroxide payload of 1.9, for a tonnage of rocket nearly 3 times as great as the OTL Atlas!

However, having put in that 30 percent safety factor we can be pretty sure this baby is robust enough to handle dense peroxide, and it is still at least half a tonne gain over the OTL Atlas D.

And this is the rocket we might believe could be operational 5 years ahead of the OTL dates, provided everything goes right for it.

I looked briefly at what it would take to lower the temperature of the chamber down below 3000 K for a ker-lox mix; even slashing the pressure down to an insanely low 2 bars still leaves it considerably hotter, while performance at sea level goes negative! And vacuum performance takes a major hit too. If people who swallowed a compromise with peroxide wish to now forge ahead for an improved performance ker-lox version like OLT, they must accept that the engine burns hotter and requires more expensive materials and methods. Assuming that some years after the peroxide version becomes operational, ker-lox engines similar in design to the OTL versions become available, and are upsized versus OTL to match the thrusts of these rockets, we can expect the following changes:

Propellant mass drops down to a total of 232 tonnes; each booster having 37,800 and the sustainer, 80,800
Dry mass can safely shed 1500 kg or 1.5 tonne since the ker-lox is less dense; All up mass is therefore 244,460
Isp for the two engine versions rises to 290 and 315
Thrusts are the same

The payload would nearly double, to 3800 kg!

Clearly then, for purposes of launching objects into orbit, the way forward is to abandon peroxide and move on to ker-lox or even more advanced methods.

However for purposes of an ICBM, despite the big advance in throw weight, this is a step backwards, for operational, on-alert ICBMs cannot rely on LOX. As a missile system the ATL giant Atlas is pretty good; it cannot be deployed ready to launch in hardened silos unfortunately, but assuming the bases it is on have some defenses against guys holding rifles a few miles away and that launch commands come well before enemy first strikes, most can be kept at the ready for days, weeks, or longer and ready to launch within minutes or even seconds of getting an authorized command to do so.

A space launcher using oxygen instead of peroxide would be a pretty different article, with different internal bulkheads separating the propellants, different infrastructure, different engines...the deployed ICBMs cannot be converted into the more powerful and efficient oxygen burning versions.

Furthermore, I looked at what might happen if a second stage were added to the Atlas versions. Here, as with the Soviet Union not being able to catch up for years, is another long delay versus OTL to expect--namely that OTL such upper stages as the Agena were developed pretty much at the same time as the basic launchers became available, but here there is no reason to think anyone in the industry is prepared to deploy something so advanced. It is possible that in the ATL, foreseeing success soon with the basic rocket, contracts are undertaken earlier, but as with Soviet efforts, the general state of the art is backward; we might reasonably expect something almost as good as say Agena A to be available two or three years earlier than OTL, but there is still going to be a delay.

Anyway assuming something like Agena A might be available someday, on a peroxide Big Atlas, it raises payloads to around 4 tonnes--but on a LOX Big Atlas, it only raises them further to 4.6 tonnes!

This suggests to me that instead of pushing hard to develop a ker-lox Atlas, it might be smarter just to develop upper stages for the peroxide version.

And then I thought--why wait for Agena, anyway? Kerosene peroxide is inferior to hypergolic but not by a lot, and it is comparably storable, and here we have a crash program to get a powerful kerosene-peroxide engine operational. Why not consider such an engine with the lower parameters of Agena instead?

Indeed, a realistic stage in the ballpark of Agena but using kerosene-peroxide tech might be defined as massing 500 kg dry, holding 3 tonnes of propellant, having an engine capable of 70 kN thrust in vacuum; such an engine raises the Sliverbird calculation (which might be optimistic by a quarter tonne or so) to 4.7 tonnes. And then I wondered, why not a third stage? Rather, turn this thing into a third stage, and have a second stage of intermediate mass and thrust--say, 1.6 tonnes dry, 30 tonnes of propellant, thrust of 250 kN, Isp of 292? With that, Silverbird offers something like 7.6 tonnes in orbit--very near the mass of a Soyuz spacecraft!

All of this is on the base of a standard missile spec Big Atlas using peroxide; I doubt the performance with an LOX variation would be better.

These upper stages are not likely to be ready nearly as early as 1955; the most ambitious stack might not be available until 1960 or so.

I also wondered, are we overloading the basic Atlas structure with an upper stack amounting to over 40 tonnes with payload? Well, I suppose it would overload an OTL ker-lox Small Atlas. But not only have we expanded the balloon tank shell in proportion to volume, we have also beefed it up further to account for the propellant higher density, and with all that we have a shell some 3-4 times more massive than the OTL Atlas shell. Whereas, assuming we scaled in proportion to volume, the linear dimensions are just 28 percent greater, and that means that the cross-section of load bearing steel in the shell has been raised in area by more than a factor of two. OTL Atlas-Centaurs have been launched with upper stacks amounting to more than 20 tonnes mass, so with double capacity we can contemplate a 40+ tonne upper stack quite calmly.

Another metric other than raw mass is the ratio of thrust force borne by the shell to strength in the worst case, which is just before sustainer burnout. An OTL Atlas with a 20 tonne upper stack has its sustainer producing nearly 40 tonnes-weight of force on that upper stack, meaning the shell of the first stage is conveying that. The ATL Big Peroxide Atlas producing nearly 120 tonnes-weight force on our purported 45 tonne upper stack, or about three times as much. It has 4 times the mass of steel in a cylinder that is, ignoring the caps, 1.28 times as long and at 1.28 times the diameter, so the area is 1.64 as great, thus the thickness of the skin is 2.44 times as much, and the circumference is 1.28 times greater so the load-bearing area is 3.125 as great. Thus the skin, duly stabilized by pressure against buckling, ought to bear a tripled thrust quite as well.

Also note that with its thicker skin, although the diameter is raised which raises the tension force the skin must retain at a given pressure, it is thicker in proportion; the internal relative pressure can be nearly double whatever it was with OTL Atlas and remain in proportion.

That's a good thing when most of the volume is filled with high test peroxide; if a certain amount of outgassing of oxygen occurs the hull has margin before the rising pressure becomes an emergency, buying time for various countermeasures--including of course declaring a launch emergency and evacuating the launch area in anticipation of a pad blowup! Opening valves to relieve the pressure ought to be an option of course, unless the launch is far from ready and the crisis is being caused by contamination in the peroxide tank.

OK, that's my ATL Big Peroxide Atlas proposal. Maybe we can discuss if it is feasible at all, and if so, would opting for this have allowed Convair to accelerate development, and what sort of PODs might plausibly have sent the Air Force and its contractor down this path?
 
Here's my sketch TL:

Late 1930s, USA: Although the US government is doing nothing to support rocketry in any form, compared to the German Army having taken Von Braun's amateur group in hand, or the Soviet Union's encouragement of rocketry and jet research that fosters young Sergei Korolev and the other great names of the post-war Soviet rocket field, in the USA sheer volunteerism, much like Von Braun's team early years, is widespread and diverse. The US spin-off of the British Interplanetary Society has, to the disgust of idealistic Britons like the young Arthur Clarke, renamed itself the American Rocket Society, aiming for now to promote the basic technology that might someday enable the loftier dreams of their British counterparts. For alas in Britain experimenting privately with rockets is illegal per a mid-19th century Act of Parliament, but in America, rocket fans are legally free to blow their own heads off for the glory of it. And despite the fact that serious work in this field requires considerable investment and the Great Depression still casts a pall over enterprise generally, quite a few amateur Americans, generally with no money to speak of, do their best in garages and impromptu setups. And some of them, aside from the great work of Dr Goddard who stands aloof and above this enthusiastic fray in his dignity in New Mexico, can set some real contributions on the shelf.

All this is OTL.

POD--some serious group, most likely the Suicide Squad at Caltech (also known as the founders of Jet Propulsion Lab) includes people who get interested in the prospects of hydrogen peroxide as an oxidant. It should already be apparent to them that it will burn cooler, so at a given pressure materials and workmanship required would be somewhat easier. And that the components will store pretty compactly, and without requiring cryogenic storage and handling. Perhaps an extra person joins who becomes keen about this option, perhaps OTL people avoid an accident or are provoked by a big accident into doubling down to vindicate their apparently foolish choice to their peers.


During USA's involvement in WWII, funding for rocket development materializes and many options are explored. Meanwhile in Britain the government, the necessary patron of any rocket work there, has been promoting rocketry for military purposes as well. Per the POD, serious work is done beyond OTL to develop hydrogen peroxide as a competitive primary oxidant as well as monopropellant. Indeed OTL some ground work had been laid; a number of OTL rockets of some fame did use it. Greater communications with Britons with similar interests may lead postwar to a brain drain of some of the leading proponents of peroxide rocketry there.

1945-48 Convair proceeds much as OTL, preparing HIROC for tests and with plans for alternate lines of more advanced work. However the greater ATL enthusiasm for the prospects of a peroxide focus brings this notion into the ambit of Convair and Air Force officials. Instead of the OTL plan to develop "Teetotaler" (HIROC A) as a kerosene-oxygen rocket abolishing use of alcohol fuel, the plan now is to develop it as a kerosene-peroxide rocket--it is irreverently referred to as "Hussy." (Peroxided, get it? Huh huh huh!)

By this time, the generally wider interest in peroxide in the highly funded American programs have led to some basic investigations that better establish safe handling procedures. The notion of chilling it, to raise the thermodynamic barriers against spontaneous decay, has been studied and it is known in the rocketry community that keeping it near freezing makes it safer. At Convair, further studies are undertaken in 1947 and early 1948 to determine the hazards of very high test concentrations. It is anticipated that the stuff will only get worse the more it is purified, but the company wants to know just how bad it is because it is understood the higher the concentration the more effective it will be as a propellant. It comes as a great surprise to learn that as purity is pushed to near perfection, the volatility of the substance actually decreases--it seems that even water itself is a bit of a destabilizing agent in hydrogen peroxide! As Cold War storm clouds are gathering, the management in cooperation with the Air Force classifies this discovery, and various layers of disinformation are added to the program--the research about chilling it is obscured and a certain amount of money is spent funding a program of investigating chemical additives to put in peroxide to stabilize it, analogous to work going on with nitric acid and hydrazine. In fact the core development program has no intention of using these formulations, though if a promising one turns up they will consider it. The plan now is to super-purify and chill, and rely on the chemical simplicity of the substance to aid development of the reliable and powerful engines they seek. Catalysts can either be solid pieces of equipment, screens or nozzles, that promote decay, or substances added to it to trigger it; in the latter case there is some concern that stabilizing chemicals will complicate and impede the work of added catalysts while in the former, that they will corrode or clog the fixed ones. Anyway peroxide is such fussy stuff that the cover research program is thus far finding it far easier to destabilize than stabilize it! But purity and cold temperatures make it manageable. It is hoped that Soviet agents will believe the cover research that implies that working with peroxide is dangerous and erratic, and thus that the American missile project is in some trouble.

Here is where we need the POD that keeps the Air Force funding Convair's project despite the OTL factors that led to termination of the contract. Perhaps we overlooked the most obvious hurdle; President Truman is bogged in partisan gridlock, and he himself is not keen on upholding unnecessary expenses for Defense. The Air Force is already consuming a lot of money, while the Navy feels shortchanged, and relative to the Bomber Boys they are--but the Army is the service that has really been drastically cut back, down to just a tiny fraction of their WWII peak and yet burdened with tasks far exceeding those they had before war preparations began. The Army must maintain a substantial presence in Europe after all, since Germany is still under occupation, as is Japan. The draft continues, to draw in new young men so that older soldiers can go home and get out of it after their stint. But funds are tight, and Congress is controlled by Republicans hostile to Truman. Truman and the Democrats alone are hardly to blame exclusively for the frugal state the military is falling into; Republicans ideologically wish to cut back spending across the board, including the military. The big partisan fights are over whether to extend or even continue existing New Deal programs--Truman wants to expand them and fights hard to do it, but Congress blocks his initiatives. We argued over a bunch of contingent reasons for the Air Force to abandon HIROC and Convair's whole ballistic missile plan, but how much of it was simply penny pinching, with Air Force brass feeling they need, despite being the most favored service, to circle their wagons and abandon everything that might look dubious that was not essential?

I am not sure how to pull the political rabbit out of the hat, but perhaps instead of looking for extraneous factors like a worsening East/West conflict versus OTL, we can sustain the older POD by having the Air Force brass involved become so impressed with Convair's general progress that they decide keeping the rocket program going is the right thing to do?

Say that, working on peroxide, Convair and their rocket partners at Rocketdyne have made some significant breakthroughs already, putting Hussy well ahead of Teetotaler OTL. With a reliable, flyable kerosene-peroxide engine demonstrating good features already in hand before the ax fell OTL, perhaps the Air Force brass feels that good progress is happening, and they ought not back out just yet.

1948-51 Cold War shenanigans continue to chill the general postwar atmosphere, and the Air Force in particular is keen to develop anything they can to get an edge over the vast Soviet war machine. Good progress at Rocketdyne and Convair keep modest payments coming from Uncle Sam, despite the fact that Truman's very narrow victory and failure to regain control over the House as he had hoped means political gridlock in Washington continues. But with even Curtis LeMay convinced (grudgingly) that Convair's progress with their program implies that the Soviets, now known to have made and tested their own A-bombs and known to have a vigorous ballistic missile program of their own, can get ahead of us unless the Americans match their work, and reflecting that it is better for the Air Force to develop it and claim it as a kind of "bomber" than let the Army get ahead and claim it as a kind of "artillery," the program continues--not as a burning priority, but Hussy (under a more dignified name) has flown and the new rocket engines have proven at least as reliable as any other, and more powerful than most (due to the fact that peroxide reactions are cooler, so it has been easier to design combustion chambers and nozzles--they aren't good enough for operations yet by any means, but they are pretty powerful by the standards of the day, and blow up rather less often than their rivals.

Then of course the Korean War breaks out, and Truman must face just how very much smaller the Army is than it was when he took office. He has not been more fanatical than others about cutting it; after all his own service was as an artillery officer on the front of the Great War, and in the bloody Army, not the Navy most Presidents with military backgrounds in the 20th century had been in, and not the glamorous new Air Force. He knew America was in a risky position but now the bluff has been called, and it is past time unfortunately to get a major expansion funded while at the same time trying to fight a sudden war that seems to be spinning out of control and liable to turn into a third World War. Congress is much more willing to fund a shooting war, especially one against Communists. The floodgates are opened. It will be a while before the economic stimulus effect pulls the USA out of the mild slump it has been in, and although Truman benefits from a loophole in the new Amendment to limit Presidential terms and may run again n 1952, it is perfectly plain to him that would just be a way to lose. Perhaps if the Republicans had run someone like Taft he'd try anyway, but they have nominated Eisenhower instead and so he has not got a chance, nor would any other Democrat--perhaps not even FDR himself would win against Ike in these circumstances!

Eisenhower upon taking office turns out to be less gung ho about military solutions than many others-indeed over the years he will find that Democratically dominated Congresses will take his military funding proposals and amplify and add to them, and this bothers him since as a Republican he feels it is dangerous for government to get to be too large a share of the national economy. But in the 1950s military spending has a Keynesian stimulus effect. Everyone, but New Deal Democratic voters especially, is worried about another Depression and anything that holds that wolf far from the door is very popular. Military spending means military contracts and thus factories churning out an increasing variety of munitions; expensive high tech projects employ hundreds of thousands. Even the draft means a certain fraction of the potential labor force is off the market but learning technical skills that market wants. Now, although it is still the Air Force, as the bomber service that proposed to defend America on the cheap, that is favored, the Navy and even the Army can get expansion and new projects approved.

OTL, it was this environment that brought the Air Force back to Convair for the missile program to continue. Here, it never terminated, but now, especially encouraged by good progress in the engine development department, the Brass get down to brass tacks, and the new weapon system is no longer a blue sky investigation; it seems that it is time for specifications and plans to aim at an actual launch date in the near future. The Russkies have their own bomb after all, and God knows how good their air defenses are--not so great, to those deeply in the know--American and British flights probe into their airspace, sometimes flying great swathes right across their interior, and the Soviets shoot them down only sometimes--presumably in a saturation attack just about everyone would get through--but then again, they aren't fully mobilized in nominal peacetime either, are they? And who knows what wonky secret weapons their slave scientists might come up with next, eh? Anyway these incursions are illegal, potentially construed as acts of war, the flight crews risk being treated as spies and so it is US policy to flatly deny that the US violates Soviet airspace. This means crews shot down or forced to land are abandoned, declared dead and no one advocates to bring them home, for to ask for them to be returned would be to admit the USA has been lying. So, even among the high brass, only those with real Need To Know are aware of all these successful penetrations of Soviet airspace--to the other officers, however intelligent and broadly well informed they might be, Soviet air defenses are a conundrum.

Probably by now, someone also is thinking that if these rockets Convair wishes to make work to lob massive hydrogen bombs at the Russians, they can also put up satellites that can look down on the Soviets and suss out just what it is they do have, without putting more airmen in danger. Eisenhower knew this pretty early in his administration I think and he is going to be made aware of the possibility even earlier ITTL.

Because by the time he is elected, the missile is very nearly in hand already.

A factor hurting them versus OTL is that the missile must be very big, to throw heavy H-bombs. This surely must cost not only extra money, but extra time. In particular the engines must be bigger by 30 percent, and this will cause some delay.

However many factors are in their favor versus OTL.

1) I count on the engines being simpler due to running cooler, and therefore their development should be farther along
2) OTL the sustainer engine and booster engines, though sharing major commonalities, were quite different. Here I suggest the decision is made early to make them both slight variations on the same core design. The sustainer won't be as efficient as OTL, because if its core is the same, it runs at the lower 41 bar pressure adequate for the boosters, but deemed too low performing for the highly efficient sustainer that was designed to run at 48 bar instead. But here, the evaluation in theory is done and while the sustainer does suffer a bit of Isp loss due to lower pressure in the core, the loss is small, whereas by that same token the chamber and pumps are lighter and cheaper. The nozzle isn't, it is longer and heavier and hence costlier, but each rocket requires only one high expansion nozzle. Whereas the engines being otherwise identical, with interchangable parts, is a big savings; Rocketdyne only needs to make one type, and that type is made in quantity.
3) the balloon tank principle was already proven in HIROC, and in this ATL it may be believed the main reason to switch from aluminum to steel was to accommodate hydrogen peroxide storage, and no doubt we would have AH threads there seeking to prove that a LOX design would surely use aluminum and be lighter and perhaps even claim to be cheaper (I doubt this very much!) and it might be fashionable generally to denounce the stupidity of detouring to hydrogen peroxide and setting up a huge peroxide legacy in the military and space program. But in fact they switched to steel OTL anyway. It is easier to work with. Here the steel has greater area, but also greater mass, so it winds up being thicker, and thicker gauge steel is easier to work with still. The sheer extra mass makes it more costly, but per tonne worked it is probably going to be cheaper, and the greater thickness is probably also an aid to quality control. Therefore I expect the design and prototyping and development of construction machinery and jigs and procedures has gone quickly and smoothly. The machines and workforces will have to be more massive than OTL, but that is because the rockets are, and so are their payloads.

So then, the day when articles for early phase testing have already been made for things like static tests to destruction might come quite early, perhaps in 1952 even. Rocket engine prototypes would also be on test stands by then. Integration and flight testing would soon follow, just after all up static tests. Since the rockets must be kept pressurized or they would collapse at all times anyway, keeping the peroxide cool even on hot days at White Sands or perhaps already in Florida would be a simple matter, I think, of running the gas used to pressurize the shell in chilled form, bubbling it from the bottom of the oxidant tank to the top, withdrawing the slightly warmed gas and chilling it again for another pass. Thus, just as the missiles when operational can sit on the launch pads ready to go with their external auxiliary umbiliicals still attached, including the gas line, so they can under testing when other issues than the oxidant cause holds. Therefore there will be fewer incidents where the tanks must be drained and next tests postponed longer while more oxygen is loaded back in later. To be sure peroxide is hazardous enough that it often will need to be drained away before crews investigate problems close up, but on the whole I expect the testing process to go faster. It will surely involve losing a lot of test articles, and there may be bitter recriminations, and regrets about risky decisions such as going with peroxide, or the balloon tank structure, or trusting Convair, or the general wisdom of making ballistic missiles at all.

Something else to consider--under these circumstances the rocket may be ready for launch long long before the warheads to go into them are! The missiles don't pay as weapons with just A-bombs in them, the H-bomb is needed. But beyond simply making a fusion device work (the first US test article was completely unlike an operational weapon for instance) one then needs to get it to a stage of maturity where it can be integrated with a reentry system, not to mention be made both light and compact enough to fit on top of a rocket.

It is also possible that while we can justify making the rocket itself earlier, its guidance system (the thing Dr Vandenberg acerbically swore would never be made workable in the foreseeable future) might be woefully inadequate.

I am therefore being very vague about the time frame in which the total, integrated Big Atlas--call it perhaps Blonde Brute--is ready to go, as all these other elements must also mature; OTL miniaturized H bombs and ballistic reentry thermal protection systems had much R & D behind them before the rocket itself was ready to launch, while the guidance system could work with general tech 5 years or more ahead of our target date for the ATL rocket.

It may be that as a brute force rocket, Atlas will be ready in say late 1954--but must serve for years as a launcher for ballistic warhead entry system models, all the while with bugs in guidance being worked out by trial and error.
 
@Shevek23: The idea looks broadly plausible. I am wondering two things though:

* What purity are you assuming for the peroxide?

* Where is the US going to get its peroxide? As far as I can remember, both Britain and the US did not have a strong peroxide industry, and in the 40s the best both could produce was something like 65% pure or 70% pure. The best Peroxide in the world at that point was the 80% pure stuff the Germans had made in WW2 (build up at enormous expense to support their rocket and submarine programs) and I don't think the US or UK had access to the German technology. And the US didn't even have access to the high purity stuff that the Brits got from Germany - during the division of the loot, the British got all of the stored peroxide (which was where all the British rockets got their peroxide).

Maybe the greater pre-war interest in peroxide over in the US means that when looting Germany, the Americans make sure to get ahold of some of the tasty German peroxide and the British get more of something else in compensation. As a result, Convair has some "free" 80% pure peroxide to play with, encouraging their interest in the oxidizer just as it encouraged British interest in peroxide in OTL.

fasquardon
 
@Shevek23: The idea looks broadly plausible. I am wondering two things though:

* What purity are you assuming for the peroxide?
As near to 100 percent as possible for the operational rockets; as I said this becomes a goal by 1949.

There are processes to take medium high test peroxide, 50 percent or more, and purify it further. Beals set up such a facility, at some expense, on the Puerto Rican island he was going to launch his proposed rocket from. I think they involve freezing the stuff to scrape away the water as it were. It is dangerous! But so is generating just about any kind of refined rocket propellant one would want, one way or another.
* Where is the US going to get its peroxide? As far as I can remember, both Britain and the US did not have a strong peroxide industry, and in the 40s the best both could produce was something like 65% pure or 70% pure. The best Peroxide in the world at that point was the 80% pure stuff the Germans had made in WW2 (build up at enormous expense to support their rocket and submarine programs) and I don't think the US or UK had access to the German technology. And the US didn't even have access to the high purity stuff that the Brits got from Germany - during the division of the loot, the British got all of the stored peroxide (which was where all the British rockets got their peroxide).

Maybe the greater pre-war interest in peroxide over in the US means that when looting Germany, the Americans make sure to get ahold of some of the tasty German peroxide and the British get more of something else in compensation. As a result, Convair has some "free" 80% pure peroxide to play with, encouraging their interest in the oxidizer just as it encouraged British interest in peroxide in OTL.

fasquardon

I went looking for data on prices and stumbled on this historical retrospective essay which includes some hard figures on the availability of concentrations and their prices in years before 1950. In the USA, the highest test available on the market was 27 percent!

What that means obviously is that rocketry workers are going to have to develop their own methods of concentration--perhaps we have the POD right here; some rocket enthusiasts with self-discipline and connections take the trouble to do it in the late 30s.

The article also mentions specific processes that could raise the concentration--distillation is good up to 90 percent, and to go beyond that one named process is "fractional crystallization" and the implication is this, or other processes, can achieve 99.7 percent and perhaps higher.

The Suicide Squad worked at CalTech. Surely they can borrow the chemical expertise, if they don't already know enough among themselves, to design a purity augmentation process of some kind--they might well be forbidden to operate one on campus or in town to be sure! They'd have to set up some works at La Canada or out at White Sands.

It's not like hydrogen peroxide is mined from rare ores or something. It's an industrial product, and getting it is a matter of persuading someone to invest in the plant, and then paying for it. Also it is somewhat dangerous especially if handled sloppily, so government authorities or industry ethical standards horn in and demand to see your credentials, and get assurances steps will be taken to protect the public. I suspect that purchase from the market will be for medium grade stuff, 65 percent or lower, and then rocket researchers and industry will have their custom high augmentation plants on site. At the lower test levels transport is safer I suppose.

The article does state that during the 50s and 60s commercial suppliers advertised and sold high concentrations and even up to the 99.7 level mentioned above; when rocketry turned away from using it in later decades these products disappeared from the market. 70 percent is what you can buy today, called "electronic grade."

In the sketch TL, many projects in the war years and later 40s have their own ad hoc concentration processes and these would tend to converge on an industry standard, with primary industrial suppliers beginning to market very high test stuff with or without additives in response to the rising research and military market. As I said, I suggested maybe the Air Force would seek to obscure the art of working with the stuff with disinformation to throw Soviet spies off track.

---------
This caused me to think of a different POD though. I still think we need an American POD of the US rocket enthusiasts going after HTHP on their own, but it is quite a jump from 27 percent to something seriously useful for rockets, admittedly. I have some thoughts on that too that are new, but perhaps to hammer it home we need a second, unrelated POD, and perhaps this second one can cover the first--no changes in the American scene at all until knock ons from the first divert things. I'll shift over to another post to avoid muddying the waters in my usual fashion!
 
So--I stepped away from the computer and had a thought, and then much later other thoughts.

Here's the new POD, perhaps the singular one:

FDR lives longer. Say in April 1945, he suffers a milder version of the stroke that killed him OTL. He is still seriously disabled, but less so than in a recent TL you may have noticed with a title along the lines of "Franklin's no good, very bad day." He's better off than in that TL, but he knows his days are numbered and he has to start preparing Harry Truman to take charge. He's not letting him do it yet, and convinces everyone he is still in charge, but for instance he still is not well enough to go to Potsdam--Truman is his envoy. Truman is thus made aware of the promises to the British to share our nuclear secrets for instance. Unfortunately for the Anglo-American relationship Congress will intervene as OTL and tie Presidential hands--but less restrictively since both Truman and FDR himself will lobby for keeping faith.

I figure Roosevelt lives to late '46 or early '47--he has more strokes and gets worse, but meanwhile his relationship with Truman (and that of a number of crucial OTL figures who were cold to Truman, such as Eleanor Roosevelt--I like the idea of a lot of people who despised Truman OTL liking him better, and a deeper perception of continuity between the administrations) improves. Gradually Truman has to be trusted to do things more his own way, but the feedback between the old dying President and the "accidental" VP who actually was one of Roosevelt's deepest admirers and acolytes makes for a strong and nearly seamless transition; when Roosevelt dies at last no one doubts that Truman is both a continuation of his legacy and his own competent man, one more trusted by more of the old guard--both the most idealistic New Dealers and the grittier Democratic Party machine types have reason to respect him; he has a lot more support going into the 1948 election. To be sure there is ample potential here for deep and bitter ironies; OTL Truman won in defiance of all predictions and with hardly anyone in the establishment on his side, by a razor thin margin to be sure, one he was confident, rightly I believe, was due to his hard slogging whistlestop barnstorming campaign taking to the people. Someone less admiring of Truman than me might easily take the opportunity here to have Dewey defeat him. OTL the election was low-turnout; higher turnout against Truman would not be hard to happen at all.

Personally I prefer to imagine he still wins, again perhaps by the skin of his teeth. More New Dealers trusting and backing him, less "Mild about Harry" and more "Wild" about him, doesn't immunize him from opposition from farther to the left; he was after all, if passionate about the New Deal, and radical by some measures (he sought a national health plan, and stuck his neck quite far out in favor of racial civil rights, opposing white supremacist violence, and even integration) still at bottom remained a liberal centrist, quite opposed to socialist "extremes;" also of course foreign policy developments reinforced anti-Communism and aside from his feelings on the matter it was his job, as Chief Executive, to look out for US national interests, so Henry Wallace's independent campaign would still be quite likely to throw monkey wrenches into the '48 campaign. OTL Wallace diverted enough votes from Truman in New York state to throw that state to Dewey--and after all NY was Dewey's home state. (But without Wallace, Dewey would surely not have carried it, so that's something for Dewey fans to chew on). This is how he could be defeated--more support from the Roosevelt supporters and party machinery might have made the Democrats complacent; OTL the complete desertion by all sides may have been the motivation it took to drive Truman to fight to the bitter end. I actually figure Truman himself would fight regardless, at the same intensity; he often complained of the horrors of the Presidency but he was passionate it was better for him to hold it and fight for the New Deal legacy than allow someone in who he perceived as someone who would dismantle any of it--in short his tenacity was out of a sense of duty. Meanwhile he'd hardly be likely to mollify the right wing of the party known as the Dixiecrats; Dixiecrat votes against him which unlike Wallace's campaign did win Thurmond some electoral votes (more people voted for Wallace than Thurmond, but the concentration of Dixiecrat sentiment in the South won entire states) might be even stronger. Still I prefer to assume Truman wins, and that is possible too. It makes for minimal divergence from OTL anyway.

But getting back to '45-'47, the drawn out transition from FDR to Truman--things largely go as OTL. I don't believe Roosevelt would have dealt substantially differently with the USSR than Truman did; style might have differed, but FDR was not about to hand over vital Western interests (nor was Truman immune to the dream of good post-war relations, had Stalin bent enough to accommodate them). Basically I see the relation as working out as Good Cop/Bad Cop, but with Roosevelt using the obvious and macabre fact that the Bad Cop would inevitably be taking full authority sooner or later and Uncle Joe had best mend fences with the Western powers before that happens, binding Truman to settled agreements. But it won't work due to Stalin not being flexible enough to take the risk of doing something big enough, such as say allowing Poland to hold genuine elections or the like. The upshot is essentially as OTL, including the Republicans taking control of Congress in the 1946 midterms and keeping it all through Roosevelt and Truman's terms.

But meanwhile, Truman being made aware of the verbal promise Roosevelt made Churchill to share the proceeds of the Manhattan Project (after all, Britain did allow MP to cherry pick much from Tube Alloys, so this was no mere sentimental gift, more of an honest payment on a partnership agreement) means he is committed too, besides FDR is sitting right there for the next couple years. Congress intervenes and blocks the full transfer of data; Britain gets more than OTL but less than they were promised, and to try and compensate, the dual US administration seeks closer cooperation with the British in broader, other matters, who by now are under Attlee's Labour ministry anyway.

There is more of a sense that the USA should repay for British gifts made during wartime, to look after British interests with the Commonwealth perceived as a more equal partner, and this is easier for the New Dealers knowing Labour is also progressive. This extends to technical matters especially.

Thus, the Convair team are introduced to British projects that favor peroxide. With American levels of funding of British approaches, Convair and Rocketdyne are convinced that this is a fast track to something operational.

It might then not be necessary to alter US practice after all. I do like the idea of Americans liking peroxide better on their own, but perhaps a more plausible degree of relative shifting would be in line with the assumption that stronger cooperation with Britain would reinforce it.

Atlas is thus to an extent a joint Anglo-American thing. The missile is developed on the assumption that more powerful and lighter bombs will be available eventually, allowing deployment in CONUS, but as an interim measure, early deployment with a heavier though far less powerful warhead of fission bombs is planned to start at bases in Britain. The greatly lowered range allows a heavier war load, while cutting down on the circle error probable with early state of the art electronics and guidance system development. Of course it is still necessary to develop entry systems, but with a lower speed, shorter trajectory this problem is somewhat mitigated and a shorter test period is needed to develop an entry system for advanced A-bombs.

Now the ball is in the court of the bomb makers to make fusion bombs and make them suitable for installation in the Atlases, and light enough to enable American deployment. Meanwhile in addition to sites in Britain, the US also seeks to use launch sites in the Pacific to menace the Soviet far East and PRC. Japan obviously would have serious issues with missile sites on their soil but might not be able to do anything about Okinawa. Perhaps this intensifies the conflict with Mao if there are bases in Taiwan. Islands the Americans own outright are farther away; Alaska is an obvious option, but operations in the Aleutians are tough of course. Everyone looks eagerly for a more advanced option.

Meanwhile also, although Atlas like the Soviet R-7 was developed on the theory that air lighting of upper stages is unreliable, testing is showing that Convair designed ker-peroxide upper stages are reasonably workable, and this increases throw weight; two (and a half!) stage Atlas comes on line as an option right about the time of development of early H bombs, which are much heavier than those used OTL in our version of Atlas but make a big boom that compensates for mediocre accuracy, so the first American continental bases deploy these big versions. By the time this happens--one has to look at the state of art of H-bomb development to pick a date, and unless Anglo-American synergy can plausibly accelerate it (most doubtful I think) we have to assume it is not much faster than OTL. So first big bombs, suitable though barely to put on an extra large Big Blonde Beast Atlas with a second stage, and only later miniaturized ones suitable for basic stage and a half. In fact one might guess that instead of seeking to develop lighter and more precise bombs, the advances veer more toward increasing sheer megatonnage--precision will improve, but having developed higher throw weight why not use it

At some point it is quite possible the Anglo-American cooperation chills. Ironically in view of their theoretical ideological position, Britain in the post-war years tended to favor accepting a role as the US junior partner under Labour governments, perhaps in part because Labour could cut spending on military development and deployment tucked under the Eagle's wing, whereas Tories (notably with Churchill as their standard bearer) perceived more affront to British dignity, and perhaps cannily preferred to spend money on British military-industrial complex and see less of it alienated to pay Yankee firms. Thus Britain (and also France) tended to be most compliant with Yankee wishes under a social democratic ministry while right wing governments were more haughty and independent minded. Sooner or later Britain will go Tory. Meanwhile on the other side, I am postulating FDR living longer tending to sustain the special relationship, and that Truman could get behind that readily enough, while perhaps this would make Republicans favor reining it in, perceiving it all as so many giveaways to ungrateful foreign pinkos who ought to get out of the way of US corporate supremacy. Sooner or later a Republican will sit in the White House--I assume much as OTL, in 1953 and it will be Eisenhower. Who from his wartime experience has a better relationship than other Republicans might with European leaders.

Again this is one of those things, like whether Truman wins in '48 or not, that might go different ways. It is not inconceivable that US and British policy get so intertwined that effective separation becomes unthinkable--this can only be true if both sides are pleased overall with the way it is working for them. Here I'm making the minimal assumption that by and large any ATL strengthening of the relationship is temporary, but it lasts long enough that Atlas is perceived as a shared baby; Britons are given moral and financial credit as important partners in the development.

And the first operational Atlas bases are on British soil, as an expedient to raise throw weights and lower targeting error range, and this preempts the OTL development of Thor. Launch authority for these requires both American and British authorization. This is a done deal before Eisenhower can take office--the missile is not fully ready then, and it hasn't been shipped to Britain yet, but there are all sorts of written agreements and for Ike to break the deal would be quite a bad move, and he knows it. Thus completion of Atlas is guaranteed by then, and indeed it fits well into his OTL "New Look" heavy reliance on strategic threat to try to avoid massive expense of conventional military buildup.

So there is my new POD proposal, to go with my rocket model. I should note both are shaky; I have not spent a long time trying to optimize either and both might be quite faulty.

I had another idea, POD related, that is technical but I will post it here because it relates to the shift to peroxide in America. However I think I will move it to a short post of its own, followed by a roundup of technical topics!
 
Also it is somewhat dangerous especially if handled sloppily, so government authorities or industry ethical standards horn in and demand to see your credentials, and get assurances steps will be taken to protect the publi

OTL you used to be able to buy drums of Hydrazine in the '50s.
Hot rodders would blend fuel for drag racing, when just Nitromethane wasn't enough
http://www.dragzine.com/news/flashback-friday-the-story-of-the-leathal-fuel-called-hydrazine/

So when somebody was blowing green flames from the stacks on their 392 supercharged Hemis, you knew 'Preparation H' was on the track

It wasn't banned till 1963 or so
 
Truman is thus made aware of the promises to the British to share our nuclear secrets for instance. Unfortunately for the Anglo-American relationship Congress will intervene as OTL and tie Presidential hands--but less restrictively since both Truman and FDR himself will lobby for keeping faith.

This is a pretty fun idea. It also gives the Brits a powerful rocket that can easily launch men into orbit... It would be fun to see the Brits join the space race, even if they just do so to show that they can do anything the US and Soviets can do save expensive manned moon missions, rather than trying to score any firsts of their own.

I bet the British could do quite a bit in space if they don't have to spend too much of the budget on the launcher itself.

fasquardon
 
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