Earlier George H.W. Bush Presidency (1985-1993)

In this timeline, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Paul Volcker is appointed earlier and contains inflation earlier. President Jimmy Carter is helped by this and wins the 1980 Election over former California Governor Ronald Reagan. Who do you think would enter the 1984 Republican Party presidential primaries? Nonetheless, Former CIA Director George H.W. Bush wins the nomination in 1984 because of the press he garnered as Reagan's running mate. Bush beats Vice President Walter Mondale in 1984 because of Democratic fatigue and Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis in 1988. Who do you think Bush's Vice President would be? Would Mondale select Congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro of New York as his running mate? Would Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton be the Democratic nominee in 1992?
 
For Volcker to "contain inflation earlier" would mean engineering the OTL 1981-82 recession a couple of years earlier--which would if anything *hurt* Carter's prospects for re-election.

And that's not even taking into account long gas lines, the Iran hostage fiasco, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the divisions in the Democratic Party caused by the Kennedy candidacy, the grain embargo (which hurt Carter badly with farmers), the Anderson candidacy (which admittedly drew votes from both major party candidates but which IMO hurt Carter more), the alienation of Jewish voters over Carter's Mideast policy, the rise of the Religious Right which attracted some Evangelicals who had voted for Carter in 1976, etc. Really, if you want Carter to be re-elected in 1980, you'll have to do better than that...
 
Last edited:
A better way to get a 85-93 Bush Presidency is to have Reagan still beat Carter in 1980, but have him not run in 1984 for some reason (a health scare perhaps), having Bush run as the incumbent Vice President four years earlier.
 
For Volcker to "contain inflation earlier" would mean engineering the OTL 1981-82 recession a couple of years earlier--which would if anything *hurt* Carter's prospects for re-election.

And that's not even taking into account long gas lines, the Iran hostage fiasco, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the divisions in the Democratic Party caused by the Kennedy candidacy, the grain embargo (which hurt Carter badly with farmers), the Anderson candidacy (which admittedly drew votes from both major party candidates but which IMO hurt Carter more), the alienation of Jewish voters over Carter's Mideast policy, the rise of the Religious Right which attracted some Evangelicals who had voted for Carter in 1976, etc. Really, if you want Carter to be re-elected in 1980, you'll have to do better than that...

O David's Tea, what is your idea to get him reelected?
 
O David's Tea, what is your idea to get him reelected?
No Iranian Revolution and no Kennedy primary challenge is the only way I can think of getting Carter re elected. I do think that if Carter is re elected, Bush won't be the GOP nominee as he would have the stink of Reagan's loss on him. I think the 1984 GOP nomination in a Carter wins 1980 scenario would go to Howard Baker of Jack Kemp.
 
No Iranian Revolution and no Kennedy primary challenge is the only way I can think of getting Carter re elected.

Well, the economy is still total and utter shit, but it's possible.

I do think that if Carter is re elected, Bush won't be the GOP nominee as he would have the stink of Reagan's loss on him. I think the 1984 GOP nomination in a Carter wins 1980 scenario would go to Howard Baker of Jack Kemp.

Well, being beat never stopped Mondale. Besides, I do think Bush's arguments about Voodoo Economics would gain further credence among many.

As for a Bush presidency, I'd expect it to be not too different from a Reagan one. He'd be much more of a fiscal conservative without the "cut taxes without caring about the deficit" mentality of Reagan, so expect a shallower tax cut and more cuts to social services (to lessen spending).
 
Well, the economy is still total and utter shit, but it's possible.

The economy didn't go south until after the Iranian revolutions happened. The economic trends of '77 and '78 weren't that bad and without the revolutions, the economy might've faired better in 1979 and 1980 and if it fairs well enough, that might be enough to keep Kennedy out and narrowly beat Reagan in the general.



Well, being beat never stopped Mondale. Besides, I do think Bush's arguments about Voodoo Economics would gain further credence among many.

As for a Bush presidency, I'd expect it to be not too different from a Reagan one. He'd be much more of a fiscal conservative without the "cut taxes without caring about the deficit" mentality of Reagan, so expect a shallower tax cut and more cuts to social services (to lessen spending).

True. I don't think Bush would've gotten a second term if he cut social services too deeply though and that's if he even succeeds in doing so as I don't think he would've assuming the Democrats would keep at least the house in the 1980s. I do agree that Bush would be more hawkish and responsible about the deficit and more responsible when it comes to taxes as well.
 
I agree with dw3. Since you have to eliminate both the recession and the hostage crisis for Carter to win in 1980, the best way to get a Bush 1985 -1993. is to have Reagan not run in 1984. There could have been health problems. He was shot in 1981. ITTL I see the Persian Gulf War still happening. Bush gets a surge in popularity like OTL. He is not a candidate for reelection, so Dick Gephardt is not scared of running in 1992. He wins the nomination and election.
 
I agree with dw3. Since you have to eliminate both the recession and the hostage crisis for Carter to win in 1980, the best way to get a Bush 1985 -1993. is to have Reagan not run in 1984. There could have been health problems. He was shot in 1981. ITTL I see the Persian Gulf War still happening. Bush gets a surge in popularity like OTL. He is not a candidate for reelection, so Dick Gephardt is not scared of running in 1992. He wins the nomination and election.
Butterflies could give us Gore or Cuomo in 1992 as well. Heck I don't see why Clinton wouldn't run TTL either.
 
I agree with dw3. Since you have to eliminate both the recession and the hostage crisis for Carter to win in 1980, the best way to get a Bush 1985 -1993. is to have Reagan not run in 1984. There could have been health problems. He was shot in 1981. ITTL I see the Persian Gulf War still happening. Bush gets a surge in popularity like OTL. He is not a candidate for reelection, so Dick Gephardt is not scared of running in 1992. He wins the nomination and election.

Perhaps Reagan could get diagnosed with Alzheimer's in 1983? That way, Bush gets to run for re-election even if they have Reagan replaced on the spot.

Alternatively, you could have Reagan get HIV as a result of the blood transfusion he had following the 1981 assassination attempt.
 
Last edited:
Top