Earlier Finland

The thing is about the Commonwealth is that Lithuania was making appeals to Poland during Sigismund II's reign and he was making a push for a real union. There was already a personal union and dynastic union between the two prior to the Union of Lublin in 1569. The one thing that was holding back negotiations prior to his death was the szlachta, as they wanted better terms for themselves. I am not sure if Ivan IV would have been willing to make a better deal with Lithuania and, in my opinion, seemed to be pretty set on what he was going to do with them. What if negotiations stopped after the delegation under Mikołaj Radziwiłł left in March and were not continued as in OTL?
 
Gustavus Vasa did create duchies for his sons, so part of Finland was ruled as an independent duchy by Johan (later Johan III of Sweden) who was father of Sigismund III of Poland/Sweden. Say that Erik XIV stays as king of rump-Sweden while his brothers keep their duchies as territorially expanded independent kingdoms.
 
The thing is about the Commonwealth is that Lithuania was making appeals to Poland during Sigismund II's reign and he was making a push for a real union. There was already a personal union and dynastic union between the two prior to the Union of Lublin in 1569. The one thing that was holding back negotiations prior to his death was the szlachta, as they wanted better terms for themselves. I am not sure if Ivan IV would have been willing to make a better deal with Lithuania and, in my opinion, seemed to be pretty set on what he was going to do with them. What if negotiations stopped after the delegation under Mikołaj Radziwiłł left in March and were not continued as in OTL?
That's a very good question and I'm glad you asked it. In other words, I used up all my knowledge of the Commonwealth already and you saw where that led me.
Gustavus Vasa did create duchies for his sons, so part of Finland was ruled as an independent duchy by Johan (later Johan III of Sweden) who was father of Sigismund III of Poland/Sweden. Say that Erik XIV stays as king of rump-Sweden while his brothers keep their duchies as territorially expanded independent kingdoms.
If Johan had managed to seduce the Finnish nobility before Erik decided to imprison him in 1563, he might have been able to meet Erik's army in the field. And then... Erik and Johan see the folly of bloodshed between brothers and agree to split their father's kingdom peacefully in two. (Or, you know, not. Civil War ensues.)
 
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