Earlier Fall of the Second French Empire = No Franco-Prussian War?

Well, the Prussian-Austrian War was for that part in Denmark, wasn't it? And the French Third Republic would probably be liberal. My guess would be France would not be wanting anything from the war outside of weakening France and making sure they have a strong peace.
And you answer your own question, the war is butterfly away unless they want to meddle and that might explode in their faces...so anything will be different. The issue is what france would want in the long term without revachism?
 
And you answer your own question, the war is butterfly away unless they want to meddle and that might explode in their faces...so anything will be different. The issue is what france would want in the long term without revachism?

Well, I am wanting feedback and or second opinions on my conclusions since I’m not an expert.

My guess would be France would want to maintain peace. It would all depend on if Prussia comes out on top.
 
My guess would be France would want to maintain peace. It would all depend on if Prussia comes out on top
Prussia want unification, if france want peace they could focus in east asia(they've plans for taiwan, south china,etc) if they try something in europe will be a even bigger blunder.
 
Prussia want unification, if france want peace they could focus in east asia(they've plans for taiwan, south china,etc) if they try something in europe will be a even bigger blunder.

That’s assuming that Prussia forming Germany is guaranteed though.

Granted, the alternate method would be France making an alliance with Prussia/Germany, but how likely is that?
 
Would a Franco-Prussian alliance be likely? If that did happen, would that still mean the souther German states would join Prussia?
 
And you answer your own question, the war is butterfly away unless they want to meddle and that might explode in their faces...so anything will be different. The issue is what france would want in the long term without revachism?

Not meddling though also has a chance of... well, not exploding in their face but severely undermining their position relative to Prussia, as you run the risk of seeing the return of the old Habsburg encirclement under a different Germanic guise, particularly if (a distict possibility, given the turbulence of Spainish politics in the period) a strong executive system in Spain with a Prussian princeling on the throne (Which, given how hard Bismark pushed to get Leopold to accept and King Wilhelm to agree is the likely outcome) . It's not guaranteed the Republic pushes the crisis as hard, nessicerily, but don't just assume the whole thing was merely a Bonaparte vanity project.
 
a strong executive system in Spain with a Prussian princeling on the throne (Which, given how hard Bismark pushed to get Leopold to accept and King Wilhelm to agree is the likely outcome
The King was to be ceremonial.

And yeah France Will want war as Gambetta and thiel were hawks
 
The King was to be ceremonial.

And yeah France Will want war as Gambetta and thiel were hawks

Well, it all depends. France's mood for war may be soured by the defeat in the Americas and the ensueing bitter feeliongs, but on the other hand, Theirs was very suspicious of Prussia. It would all depend on how the people were feeling and when though. Though it all depends if Gametta and Thiel? would get into office.
 
Not meddling though also has a chance of... well, not exploding in their face but severely undermining their position relative to Prussia, as you run the risk of seeing the return of the old Habsburg encirclement under a different Germanic guise, particularly if (a distict possibility, given the turbulence of Spainish politics in the period) a strong executive system in Spain with a Prussian princeling on the throne (Which, given how hard Bismark pushed to get Leopold to accept and King Wilhelm to agree is the likely outcome) . It's not guaranteed the Republic pushes the crisis as hard, nessicerily, but don't just assume the whole thing was merely a Bonaparte vanity project.

Well, assuming that the return of the Republic in 1865 would not cause Spain to consider doing the same. If Spain did choose to become a Republic, what would that happen with Prussia there?
 
Well, assuming that the return of the Republic in 1865 would not cause Spain to consider doing the same. If Spain did choose to become a Republic, what would that happen with Prussia there?

Piddly squat, I presume. Bismark really decided to press the issue precisely because it would increase tensions with France from what I've read; since he felt that a showdown (be in military or diplomatic) with the German people's biggest enemy and a demonstration that France either won't or can't stand in the way of Prussian power (Depending on if they decided to fight or back down) was nessicery to convince the leadership of the southern German states to concede to unification via domestic pressure and removing the viable route to resistance. Rather, I imagine Spain will be allowed to do what it pleases (Though the refusal to compromise with the monarchists would probably result in in a stronger conservative resistance, possibly leading to a bloodier Third Carlist War as the traditionalists, denied an alternative, rally behind the legitimist alternative to the disposed Isabella in an attempt to save their ideology and power base). Prussia will look for another area in which to prod the French into acting.
 
The King was to be ceremonial.

In theory, yes. But as I said Spainish politics during the 19th century was extremely tumultuous and tended to go through some radical ideological and structural swings. Two years from then the Conservatives could have wrestled more influence and as a result invest more power in the monarchy and traditional power institutions while putting the liberals out in the cold.
 
Piddly squat, I presume. Bismark really decided to press the issue precisely because it would increase tensions with France from what I've read; since he felt that a showdown (be in military or diplomatic) with the German people's biggest enemy and a demonstration that France either won't or can't stand in the way of Prussian power (Depending on if they decided to fight or back down) was nessicery to convince the leadership of the southern German states to concede to unification via domestic pressure and removing the viable route to resistance. Rather, I imagine Spain will be allowed to do what it pleases (Though the refusal to compromise with the monarchists would probably result in in a stronger conservative resistance, possibly leading to a bloodier Third Carlist War as the traditionalists, denied an alternative, rally behind the legitimist alternative to the disposed Isabella in an attempt to save their ideology and power base). Prussia will look for another area in which to prod the French into acting.

I doubt that window of opportunity would last forever though.

And I wonder if France’s defeat would change that perception though, especially with their overthrow of Napoleon III
 
I doubt that window of opportunity would last forever though.

And I wonder if France’s defeat would change that perception though, especially with their overthrow of Napoleon III

Well, it had been open three years prior...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luxembourg_Crisis

Though, if Spain isen't in the cards I will admit Prussia is, geographically at least, going to start running into some issues finding a spot to prod at France. Maybe doubling down on their support/alliance with Italy and pushing for the return of Nice and Savoy (Perhaps throwing in Corsica), with Italy making some kind of legal arguement that the former two were seceded to Napoleon III's Empire? That's about the only other spot I can think of that isen't stepping on Belgium (Which would be a no-no for the British) and dosen't involve Prussia trying to project power colonially.
 
Well, it had been open three years prior...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luxembourg_Crisis

Though, if Spain isen't in the cards I will admit Prussia is, geographically at least, going to start running into some issues finding a spot to prod at France. Maybe doubling down on their support/alliance with Italy and pushing for the return of Nice and Savoy (Perhaps throwing in Corsica), with Italy making some kind of legal arguement that the former two were seceded to Napoleon III's Empire? That's about the only other spot I can think of that isen't stepping on Belgium (Which would be a no-no for the British) and dosen't involve Prussia trying to project power colonially.

Well, instead of Napoleon III, Bismarck would have to converse with Theirs during the Seven Weeks War if the two aren't at war. As for Italy, Theirs could open more favor with them by pulling out of Rome though he may consider intervenining on behalf of Austria (or rather, just does not want Prussia to go sronger.)

Though maybe if France does help out Austria against Germany and everything goes smoothly, because France coulc convince Austria to give Italy some territory (granted, alot could happen to make things topsy-turvy. Maybe the Magyar nobles go for more radical attempts that end up de-stablizing the empire and has Austria focus more on German ambitions.)

Though if the Seven Years War goes as continued and France just wants to keep peace. I don't think Italy would ever get Corsica though. Maybe Nice and Savoy if France thinks it would get Italy on their side while also working to get Prussia from doing anything.

For France, maybe their ideal solution would be what I dubbed the "Three Germany" ideas. South Germany (made of the South German states and Austria), North Germany (made of modern-day northern Germany maybe led by Westphalia or Hanover), and East Germany (the Prussian lands and they focus on getting the Baltic states in some weird Eastern German quasi-nationalism.) This is me being semi-serious though.
 
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