Earlier extinction Austrian Habsburg Dynasty

I think Willelm IV of Bayern would have the best chances inheriting Habsburg demesnes and claims to imperialship. His own claims may not be widely accepted, but he got most ressources, clientele and foreign support to press it efficiently.

Would that go relatively smoothly with the support of Fugger and other princes as Charles' election went, being more disputed with limited conflict or a full-fledged civil war? My guess is more on the second choice : I don't think there was room enough for a succession war at this point, altough the matter could come again with the Reformation crisis.

Such situation would likely beneficy France : I don't expect François I to be chosen as emperor. In fact, he may simply not run for it as his main issue was an Habsburg containment of France which is likely to not appear there.
He might sell his neutrality or support in exchange of less pressure on its northern-eastern borders (which, in case of a succession war will happen nevertheless) and critically more room in Italy.
At this point, François controls Lombardy and Milan and could keep it without an equivalent of the Sixth Italian War.

How long could he or his successors keep it is anybody's guess, but the Spanish/Habsburg alliance isn't going to disappear : Valois threat in Italy is too much of a common interest at long term.

But, ITTL, Spain would be (while still likely allied to whoever inherit the HRE) a distinct political and diplomatical player. Meaning that the revenues of the Spanish colonial empire wouldn't benefit directly the Empire that would have to deal financially on its own with Protestants and Turks (at least on land, on sea the alliance would still hold pretty well) : I'm not expecting a reedition of the Fifty Years War, would it be only for the more important necessity to compromise, but it would be problematic for the HREmperors.

Basically, you may expect more than a status-quo antebellum as the result of Italian Wars that could likely beneficy Valois (*not* a full-fledged victory) critically giving the possibility of a Spanish/Imperial tension over their own interests on the peninsula, a less important financial crisis in Spain, an HRE more at odds with internal and external matters (nothing that couldn't be resolved efficiently, that said).
 
France take a Burgundy and Netherlands?
Netherlands? That's highly unlikely : nobody, except Valois, wanted France there and whoever would succeed Habsburgs would defend to pain what was his main source of revenues (Antwerp's harbour alone collected as much profit than Peru).

Burgundy : at this point the major part of Burgundy was already under Valois control, except for the Free County. Maybe, under really good circumstances as a full-fledged succession war (which I don't think is the most likely outcome, but could still happen), French kings could trade support or neutrality in exchange of the Free County and some enclaves.

But even there, I think they'd be okay with a lack of pressure on Burgundy borders that would allow them to reinforce themselves in Italy (especially Milan) : at this point, what Valois care about is the peninsula.

Don't forget, eventually, that the Spanish/Imperial alliance isn't going anywhere for the time being.

What with kingdoms of the Czech and Hungary?
What Emperor Constantine said : Jagellon dynasty is still there and not bound to step aside just because Habsburgs are.

That said, let's not forget Ottomans : Louis II died fighting them and they're not going to step aside themselves.
One can wonder how much Jagellons would suffer from a lack of support, even temporary, from the Empire. IOTL there was a strong link between Habsburgs and Jagellons, and I think such a link would probably be kept for geopolitical interests' sake, but maybe not as strong.

In a situation as IOTL, I think Hungary would still be a mess and lost to Jagellon eventually, and Louis II or his successors may have to accept the fact contrary to what happened with Habsburgs

It could mean, for a short time, stronger Ottoman presence in Central Europe. Depending on the situation, it could mean an earlier Franco-Ottoman alliance.
 
France take all the Netherlands for sure...
If Mary of Burgundy die without heirs Maximilian will not have any chance to keep her lands and with the exinction of the local dynasty (who was also a minor branch of the French ruling dynasty) France will surely claim it back with all the rights to do it...
And for Austria or Willelm IV of Bayern will be able to have his claim recognized or the next Emperor will give it as fief to anyone he wish...
If Willelm of Bayern is able to win the Imperial crown (who is still elective) he will likely give Austria to himself or one to his sons without trouble.
If he is not elected he must hope who the new Emperor is willing to give him that lands or he will be forced to accept the decision of the Next Holy Roman Emperor...

Hungary and Bohemia will stay either in the hands of the Jagellons or pass to their heirs in the female line like OTL (Hungary will likely fall to the Ottomans)
 
France take all the Netherlands for sure...
If Mary of Burgundy die without heirs Maximilian will not have any chance to keep her lands and with the exinction of the local dynasty (who was also a minor branch of the French ruling dynasty) France will surely claim it back with all the rights to do it...
Valois doesn't have the ressources to both claim Netherlands and Italian holdings, and the latter clearly have the preference of the French court.

Again, Netherlands was the economic heart of the Empire at this point, and it's really, really, really, really unlikely that whoever inherits the Empire would pull a "Oh, right, it doesn't fit the most legalist course...Well, I guess I won't use my own legal ressources or imperial privileges to prevent my current opponent to get a critical edge on the war then".

Even disregarding the huge opposition that a Valois advance would met in Netherlands (as in REALLY huge opposition) admitting again that they would be interested doing this, it's far more likely to see an Imperial requisition of the region, letting urban and rural communities largely autonomous as long there's fiscal benefit (It's quite what happened in the case of dynastic failures elsewhere).

But again : Valois' interests at this points are in Italy. They simply can't fight Castille/Aragon and Imperial forces there, while in the same time fighting on Netherlands which would most certainly make Tudor England joining an anti-French coalition.
 
I like how the OP quote states of a Maximilian who dies impotent and childless, yet no one ever decided what was to happen in the event that Juan, Isabella of Asturias and Miguel de la Paz kick the bucket as per OTL...

In other words, who does Juana have left?
 
I think Austria will go to the Wittelsbachs, while HRE Netherlands go to the House of Cleves or the Wittelsbachs, we may see a Cleves Netherlands.
 
Again, Netherlands was the economic heart of the Empire at this point, and it's really, really, really, really unlikely that whoever inherits the Empire would pull a "Oh, right, it doesn't fit the most legalist course...Well, I guess I won't use my own legal ressources or imperial privileges to prevent my current opponent to get a critical edge on the war then".

Even disregarding the huge op

I know we're getting far out, but I wonder if you get a Dutch Revolt in this timeline. The Empire will probably have even more pressure to reform and implement some sort of unified governance than OTL, especially if the French have a stronger presence in Italy (and maybe seize Franche-Comte).
 
Right, I should have remembered from the EU game where Burgundy could be inherited by Cleves, get German and Dutch culture, and eat the planet.
 
I know we're getting far out, but I wonder if you get a Dutch Revolt in this timeline.
I'd think the immediate conditions of the IOTL Dutch Revolt would be less present : a Wittelsbach Empire would depend more on Netherlands revenues, and their own stance on religion (altough likely more close ITTL from IOTL Habsburgs) may simply be less of an annoyance.

The Empire will probably have even more pressure to reform and implement some sort of unified governance than OTL, especially if the French have a stronger presence in Italy (and maybe seize Franche-Comte).
Without Habsburgs and critically without the financial support of colonial conquests, it's going to be hard to force this without more taxation (which isn't going to be enthusiastically accepted).

I'd even lean to think that the Bavarian succession may be not only inspiring a princely autonomy trend, but be a condition of a smooth succession itself (altough it certainly means a strong south-German political entity, which may mean a similar alliance between France and German Protestants as IOTL)

I think Austria will go to the Wittelsbachs, while HRE Netherlands go to the House of Cleves or the Wittelsbachs, we may see a Cleves Netherlands.

That's quite possible, especially in the case of a shaky succession from Wittelsbach in Austria, and may be a condition of their imperial inheritence.
 
I once made a thread about a similar idea (but there it was Mary of Burgundy who died without issue), and most oppinions were that at least the Burgundian lands that were within the kingdom of France would be contested between the counts of Nevers and the Duke of Cleves (with France claiming part of them too), with Guelders and Zutphen going to Charles of Egmond, Duke of Guelders. It may help with here too: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=200639
 
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