Earlier European Integration

Shouldn't that be East African?
Yes, of course. It's just mistake after mistake today. Must re-read stuff in more detail.

As a side note, I've posted an image of an EDO warplane from this TL in the Alternate Weapons of War thread, and the Flag of Europe (used by the EEO and EDO) on the Flag thread.

I also thought that I might discuss some of the aftershocks of the Iranian defection to the Soviet side:

The Oil Crisis

When the Shah was deposed, and Iran, there was a significant spike in the oil price, alerting many in the West to their dependence on Middle Eastern oil. This was soon relieved by an increase in production by other oil producers, particularly in the Middle East, and by the fact that most oil shipped to the West had its price fixed by long term contracts, essentially capping the price.

The Oil Escalator

Although the deposing of the Shah and the Communist takeover of Iran was, on the surface, a great blow to the Arab states, as it brought the Red Army much closer to their doors, it did give them one massive advantage. The oil producing Arab nations had been seeking to renegotiate their very long term oil contracts with the West, but they had made very little progress. Now, they had the perfect negotiating tool - Western unwillingness to re-negotiate Iran's contracts had lead to a Communist takeover, and the Oil Crisis had made sure that Western politicians were aware of their dependence on oil. The Arab states did not present this argument bluntly, understanding that the Western powers would not allow themselves to be seen as caving to demands. Instead they presented themselves as being vulnerable to potential Soviet aggression or infiltration and takeover. Despite unhappiness of the European front, the EEO negotiators were forced to concede to renegotiation.

As a result, oil prices steadily increased. From 1965, when renegotiation was agreed, to 1975, when the escalator ended, the price of oil on the open market had quadrupled, and the share of the profits which remained in the country of production massively increased as local refinery capacity exploded. Note that as the Federated Arab Kingdom and Confederation of Arab Emirates, the most important members of the cartel of oil producers had remained in the sterling zone, the pegging for the oil escalator was in sterling, as were the bulk of new long term contracts, and hence the dominant exchange currency for oil.

Response to the Oil Crisis/Escalator

All the major industrialised countries took the oil crisis as a warning, and put measures in place to ameliorate the worst effects of the oil price escalator. Japan in particular began an enormous state project to wean itself away from heavily oil/energy dependent industries, and the others began to invest in energy efficiency, started intensive research programs into alternate energy sources, and expanded oil exploration programs. The Soviet Union was particularly successful in its exploration programs, and the wealth gained by oil export was an essential prerequisite for its Premier Anton Sharapov's consolidation of his predecessor's reforms. The European Economic Organisation focused its efforts on nuclear power and electrification of transport systems. This notably included the nuclear merchant navy project, following the American demostrtion that such a project was viable.

Domino Theory

Prior to 1964, the United States had been ambivalent verging on unfriendly to the European backed Arab states (particularly as all but two were monarchies with only a very limited democratic character), preferring to concentrate on building relations with Turkey and Iran. With their defeat in the Iranian Crisis, this all changed. Domino theory became popular in Washington, the fear that were Iran had left, the rest of West Asia would follow. The immediate result of this was the cutting off of the stream of covert funding to anti-monarchy groups in the area, and in many cases they were betrayed to their respective governments. On the international stage the American attitude towards the Arab states abruptly changed, although this was limited by their desire to keep good relations with Turkey.

Indian Realignment

Since independence, despite remaining a notional member of the Commonwealth, India had withdrawn from the international scene, and was not a significant member of any international organisation. It's government was more concerned was maintaining the status quo in the world's largest and arguably most complex democracy, whilst simultaneously industrialising and obtaining autarky. The appearance of another Communist state on its border was a significant wake up call to the Indian elite., resulting in the occupation of Tibet as a protectorate the following year, and a more friendly relationship with the United States, followed by significant arms purchases.
 
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The Space Race

During the World War II of this ATL, there were several important divergences which served to retard the space race:

The switch from bombing specific targets to general terror bombing was never made in Europe in this ATL, for a couple of reasons. Firstly, with a much abbreviated Battle of Britain, the Germans never had the chance to accidentally bomb London, so the tit-for-tat campaign was never begun. Secondly, Churchill was forced to downgrade Bomber Command's importance when he agreed to support Corsica as a symbolic act of support for the French part of the French-British Union. In the aftermath of the bitter arguments this involved, the main supporters of Bomber Command were sidelined in the French-British government/war-effort, and a much greater share of resources were devoted to first Coastal and Fighter Command, and then, as the fighting in the Balkans intensified, Tactical Command. One of the casualties was Frederick Lindermann, whom the French distrusted for his German origins. Churchill was forced to relegate him to be Head of the newly formed Office of National Statistics, and exclude him from the decision making structure. This limit on resources forced Bomber Command to focus its efforts on high value infrastructure such as transport links and communication hubs, and on the development of improved precision bombing. Taken together this means that Germany did not press the Vengeance weapons forwards, and the German rocketry program remained focused on tactical rather than strategic uses, and the potential of ballistic missiles was not demonstrated.

The Germans surrendered with French-British and American forces in Saxony, the Italian, Commonwealth and American forces in Dresden, and Soviets in Warsaw. This means that the last stage of the war, with scientists running away from the Soviets to surrender, didn't occur. Instead the Allies occupied the last parts of Germany relatively peacefully. This gave the Germans the opportunity to evacuate their scientists and sensitive material to the West, as the Soviets only fully occupied their zone of Germany some months after the surrender.

The shorter war means that far fewer German “wonder weapons” were deployed, and the less chaotic end to the war means that fewer scientists are throwing themselves at the Americans to surrender. There are also fewer American forces involved in the invasion of Germany, the late start to Barbarossa resulted in more German forces committed in the East as well as penned in the Balkans, and the French-British+Empire+Commonwealth and Italians can contribute significantly more forces. As a result, Operation Paperclip is never instituted to the degree it was in OTL. Patents and techniques are looted, but virtually all of the relevant scientists and prototypes remain in West Germany. This slows the American and Russian programs significantly. It does not accelerate a European one, as Europe as a whole is far too concerned with reconstruction to invest in that, and in constructing an army capable to holding back a feared Soviet invasion.

As nuclear weapons are not developed or used during the war, the urgency of creating a weapons platform capable of delivering them is reduced. Strategic bombing as a weapon against cities rather than specific targets is not used in the War to the degree of OTL. The Germans and Japanese were defeated in the field and by the destruction of their transport and communications infrastructures. Instead, nuclear weapons are seen as merely a very big bomb for use against specific targets. This means that manned delivery platforms are preferred, as precision weapons, capable of targeting moving formations and the like are preferred.

The Soviet Union does not detonate its first nuclear weapon until 1956, so the American desire for improving their nuclear capacity is reduced.

The Americans and Soviets are busy fighting a massive and very expensive proxy war in China from 1948 to 1959. This means they stay focused on producing the materials required for fighting a conventional war, rather than on strategic projects.

All of this means that I predict the below:

1956: In the wake of the Soviet nuclear weapons test and successful deployment of jet interceptors (delayed compared to OTL as the British don't help, and no German material/scientists captured) , the United States ramps up its research into long range ballistic missiles, which had been mostly moribund since the end of the second world war. Most of this additional funding goes to the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, which has developed significant expertise in guided air-to-air weapons.

1961: The United States successfully tests the first submarine launched ballistic missile.

1965: The Soviet Union places the first artificial satellite in orbit. This, the latest in a series of Soviet successes, shocks the Americans to the core. Their space program had been firmly subordinate to their military ballistic missile program, which had focused on shorter range sub-orbital rocketry as the US had access to launch sites from submarines and in Alaska, South China, and Turkey that allowed coverage of the entire Soviet Union. The Europeans, who had concentrated on manned delivery platforms, and focused missile research on tactical uses, increase funding for strategic missiles. Malenkov, the Soviet Premier initiates a strategy of using the space program as a shield to distract the West's attention from his draw down of the Moscow Pact's conventional forces, slowing of nuclear weapons development and deployment, and general shift to developing food and consumer goods at the expense of heavy industry.

1966: The first American satellite is placed in orbit.

1968: The European Space Organisation is founded by the members of the members of the EEO and EDO.

1969: The first human in space is the Russian Cosmonaut Konstanin Tvolsky, he is followed by the American Jack Wells three months later.

1972: Sharapov, the new Soviet Premier, announces the formation of the Free Peoples' Space Pact, which brings the various Communist nations (East Turkistan, Hokkaido, Korea, Iran, Mongolia, North China, Poland, and Romania) into the USSR's space program. The first European satellites is placed in orbit

1974: The Russians place the first man on the Moon after the American attempt blows up at launch. The USAF successfully launch and land a manned boost-glide spaceplane.

1976: With the costs of the space race rising much faster than the Soviet economy, the Soviet government decides to partially redirect their efforts in space to civilian uses. Sharapov still publicly pledge to put a man on Mars, which the Americans promise to beat.
 
Europe, thirty years post war, revised. If any one has any suggestions, I#ll add them in.

January 1945 With the war in Europe over, the majority believed that the Franco-British Union had run its course, and so, in simultaneous ceremonies in London and Paris, the Parliaments and governments of both course resigned their membership in the other, and passed law recognising the other as an independent nation. Several of the institutions of the union, were, however, retained, foremost amongst them the Franco-British Combined Command, and the Franco-British Joint Planning Board. This was mainly due to the rising tension with the Soviet Union. It was not felt sensible to downgrade the their capability to oppose a Russian move west. Norway, Belgium, and the Netherlands were invited to remain a part of this join command structure, and they accepted, and rebuilt their forces to fit into its structures. New elections are held in both Britain and France.

February 1945 The Conservative lead National government wins the British elections, defeating the Labour party by 22 seats. Unlike in OT mainly because Britain suffered far less in the war, thanks to a much easier Battle of Britain and Battle of the Atlantic. Rationing was far less severe, and, most importantly, far less homes were destroyed, neutralising Labour's single biggest vote winner. In France the elections are very different to OTL. With the country under military occupation, the centre right was not discredited as collaborators. Instead, the Communists, who cooperated with the military occupation for nearly two thirds of the war, are tarred with that brush. Reynaud's Alliance Démocratique wins a surprising majority of seats in the election, with the Socialist group the major opposition party. The communists only win 15% of the seats, and the minor parties less than 5%. This is partially due to the economic support the centre parties receive from outside, as well as their dominance of the media.

June 1945 WEDO is founded codifying the old Franco-British Combined Command into a permanent institution, based in London. It consists of Britain, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Norway, and the Netherlands. Other European powers, also fearing the Soviets, express interest. It integrates the member nations' European based militaries at the battalion level.

1946 The old Franco-British Joint Planning board returns to importance as it is used as a forum to plan economic cooperation to that end – incorporating planning in the French and British occupation zones.

1947

1948

1949 With the ERP and coordinated economic leading to an economic recovery, the British government calls an election. Churchill announces that he will not be the new Prime Minister (privately disgruntled by the Indian Question), he endorses Eden as his successor. The National Party (Conservatives + National Liberals) wins with a slightly increased majority.

1950 Reynaud's Alliance Démocratique party wins the French elections again. There is a substantial Soviet military build up in Poland and Romania. The European nations begin talks on removing the Western limit of WEDO.

1951 The creation of the ERDC formalises the Franco-British Joint Planning board, co-ordinating the economic activity of the United Kingdom, France, Benelux, and the Western occupation zone of Germany, it also co-ordinates aid to the rest of non-Communist non-Fascist Europe. It has two main components, an Industrial and Financial Board based in London, and an Agriculture and Transport Board to be based in Paris. Austria, the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, and Yugoslavia join the EDO. German units are raised for the first time and an integrated directly into the EDO Combined command structure. West Germany is not granted membership, and does not have the standard oversight board and ultimate veto over use of their troops that the true members enjoy. As from the start, one of the major roles of the Combined Command is to mange consolidated procurement across the membership.

1952 The British and French join nuclear project detonates their first nuclear bomb in the Australian outback. The United States provided substantial aid to this project, as the US was seeking to reduce its European commitment.

1953 Labour defeats the National Party in the British general elections, although they have had to renounce many of their policies on nationalisation to do so, conforming instead to the Conservative policy of nationalising transport and using government planning boards to encourage consolidation.

1954

1955 The ERDC is renamed the European Economic Organisation (EEO), and expands so that it includes: Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Great Britain, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, and West Germany. Greece, Hungary, Italy and Yugoslavia join as associates. All of these formed a single free trade area, a common market with no tariffs. The core members went further, with a program of economic co-operation and mutual support. In general, the associate counties wanted to be full members, but were considered too poor. Despite this, they still received significant support from the core members, as well as from the United States. As there is nearly complete overlap between the EDO and the EEO, they come to be nearly synonymous. It is at these meetings that the series of mergers and joint ventures which resulted in the modern giants of the European defence industry being formed, to meet the needs of a common military requiring unified procurement, something the EDO had been encouraging for the previous decade, in its various forms. Thanks to the various mutual trade treaties, this trade block included low tariffs on goods from the British Empire and Commonwealth, the French Union, and the NEI, forming the largest trade block in the world.

1956 Bulgaria, which had been in the throes of a bitter election campaign the previous year, joins the EEO as an associate member.

1957

1958

1959

1960 After the Fascists are defeated in the Italian election Italy upgrades its membership of the EEO to become a full member. In this year France's economy becomes larger than Italy for the first time since the end of the war, so France retains its place as 3rd largest economy in the EEO.

1961 The Prague Protocol is signed, committing the nations of Europe to opening their borders to each each others citizens.

1962 Germany overtakes the United Kingdom as the largest economy in Europe. As Germany's population is 50% larger, Britain's GDP per capita remains substantially higher.

1963 Ireland makes an application to join the EEO as an associate member. They are informed that membership is by invitation over.

1964 Bulgaria and Hungary upgrade their membership of the EEO to full status, accepting the sacrifice of sovereignty to the larger members in return for the increase in development funding. The British and French government finalise negotiations on the construction of a channel tunnel

The Oil Crisis The European Economic Organisation focused its efforts on nuclear power and electrification of transport systems. This notably included the nuclear merchant navy project, following the American demonstration that such a project was viable.

1965 The Europeans, who had concentrated on manned delivery platforms, and focused missile research on tactical uses, increase funding for strategic missiles. The prototype UGV/UHS high speed train runs for the first time, development had been in progress for the previous six years, but it had accelerated by the oil crisis.

1966

1967 The first commercial temperature throttled modular pebble-bed nuclear power station is opened in France. It is the first in a series designed to alleviate Europe's dependence on Middle Eastern oil, which is considered too vulnerable to rely on.

1968 The European Space Organisation is founded by the members of the members of the EEO and EDO.

1969 Greece and Yugoslavia upgrade their membership in the EEO to full status. The flagship UGV line from Paris to Munich to Vienna is completed, one of the favoured projects of the EEO's Transportation Board. An even more massive programme of construction begins to extend the UGV across the EEO. It is estimated that this costs more than the American Space Programme.

1970 The Prague Protocol is fully implemented across the EEO.

1971 Juan Carlos becomes King of Spain on the death of Franco.

1972 UGV lines are run from Paris to Brussels and Strasbourg to Frankfurt (the West German capital). The Channel Tunnel main tunnels meet in the center of the Channel.

1973

1974 UGV lines are run from London to Newcastle, Hamburg to Copenhagen, and Rome to Milan.

1975 The first democratic elections are held in Spain since the Civil War.

1976 The EEO meets its target of having 80% of its electricity generated by nuclear power. The Channel Tunnel opens. UGV lines open between London and Calais, through the Channel to Calais, Calais and Brussels, Brussels and the Hague, the Hague and Amsterdam, Linz and Prague, Vienna and Budapest, and Vienna and Trieste.

1977

1978 UGV lines are opened from Florence to Venice to Trieste, Newcastle to Edinburgh, Nottingham to Liverpool, Hanover to Hamburg, Kassel to Dresden to Prague, Paris to Bordeaux, Amsterdam to Hamburg, and Paris to Lyon to Marseilles.
 
Hi there. This thread looks fun. You continuing with it?

If so, I have two questions:
a) What does the European Space Organisation get up to? I see its formed in 1968, but the TL continues for ten more years with no further mention.
b) What happens to Cuba? No mention so far (that I noticed).

Please keep going with this - it looks good so far (and better than OTL in many ways).
 
Looking back on this, is there still appetite to see it continued. If so, if anyone has any particular ideas, I'll probably pick it up again.

Last time, I just ran out of inspiration.
 
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