The Space Race
During the World War II of this ATL, there were several important divergences which served to retard the space race:
The switch from bombing specific targets to general terror bombing was never made in Europe in this ATL, for a couple of reasons. Firstly, with a much abbreviated Battle of Britain, the Germans never had the chance to accidentally bomb London, so the tit-for-tat campaign was never begun. Secondly, Churchill was forced to downgrade Bomber Command's importance when he agreed to support Corsica as a symbolic act of support for the French part of the French-British Union. In the aftermath of the bitter arguments this involved, the main supporters of Bomber Command were sidelined in the French-British government/war-effort, and a much greater share of resources were devoted to first Coastal and Fighter Command, and then, as the fighting in the Balkans intensified, Tactical Command. One of the casualties was Frederick Lindermann, whom the French distrusted for his German origins. Churchill was forced to relegate him to be Head of the newly formed Office of National Statistics, and exclude him from the decision making structure. This limit on resources forced Bomber Command to focus its efforts on high value infrastructure such as transport links and communication hubs, and on the development of improved precision bombing. Taken together this means that Germany did not press the Vengeance weapons forwards, and the German rocketry program remained focused on tactical rather than strategic uses, and the potential of ballistic missiles was not demonstrated.
The Germans surrendered with French-British and American forces in Saxony, the Italian, Commonwealth and American forces in Dresden, and Soviets in Warsaw. This means that the last stage of the war, with scientists running away from the Soviets to surrender, didn't occur. Instead the Allies occupied the last parts of Germany relatively peacefully. This gave the Germans the opportunity to evacuate their scientists and sensitive material to the West, as the Soviets only fully occupied their zone of Germany some months after the surrender.
The shorter war means that far fewer German “wonder weapons” were deployed, and the less chaotic end to the war means that fewer scientists are throwing themselves at the Americans to surrender. There are also fewer American forces involved in the invasion of Germany, the late start to Barbarossa resulted in more German forces committed in the East as well as penned in the Balkans, and the French-British+Empire+Commonwealth and Italians can contribute significantly more forces. As a result, Operation Paperclip is never instituted to the degree it was in OTL. Patents and techniques are looted, but virtually all of the relevant scientists and prototypes remain in West Germany. This slows the American and Russian programs significantly. It does not accelerate a European one, as Europe as a whole is far too concerned with reconstruction to invest in that, and in constructing an army capable to holding back a feared Soviet invasion.
As nuclear weapons are not developed or used during the war, the urgency of creating a weapons platform capable of delivering them is reduced. Strategic bombing as a weapon against cities rather than specific targets is not used in the War to the degree of OTL. The Germans and Japanese were defeated in the field and by the destruction of their transport and communications infrastructures. Instead, nuclear weapons are seen as merely a very big bomb for use against specific targets. This means that manned delivery platforms are preferred, as precision weapons, capable of targeting moving formations and the like are preferred.
The Soviet Union does not detonate its first nuclear weapon until 1956, so the American desire for improving their nuclear capacity is reduced.
The Americans and Soviets are busy fighting a massive and very expensive proxy war in China from 1948 to 1959. This means they stay focused on producing the materials required for fighting a conventional war, rather than on strategic projects.
All of this means that I predict the below:
1956: In the wake of the Soviet nuclear weapons test and successful deployment of jet interceptors (delayed compared to OTL as the British don't help, and no German material/scientists captured) , the United States ramps up its research into long range ballistic missiles, which had been mostly moribund since the end of the second world war. Most of this additional funding goes to the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, which has developed significant expertise in guided air-to-air weapons.
1961: The United States successfully tests the first submarine launched ballistic missile.
1965: The Soviet Union places the first artificial satellite in orbit. This, the latest in a series of Soviet successes, shocks the Americans to the core. Their space program had been firmly subordinate to their military ballistic missile program, which had focused on shorter range sub-orbital rocketry as the US had access to launch sites from submarines and in Alaska, South China, and Turkey that allowed coverage of the entire Soviet Union. The Europeans, who had concentrated on manned delivery platforms, and focused missile research on tactical uses, increase funding for strategic missiles. Malenkov, the Soviet Premier initiates a strategy of using the space program as a shield to distract the West's attention from his draw down of the Moscow Pact's conventional forces, slowing of nuclear weapons development and deployment, and general shift to developing food and consumer goods at the expense of heavy industry.
1966: The first American satellite is placed in orbit.
1968: The European Space Organisation is founded by the members of the members of the EEO and EDO.
1969: The first human in space is the Russian Cosmonaut Konstanin Tvolsky, he is followed by the American Jack Wells three months later.
1972: Sharapov, the new Soviet Premier, announces the formation of the Free Peoples' Space Pact, which brings the various Communist nations (East Turkistan, Hokkaido, Korea, Iran, Mongolia, North China, Poland, and Romania) into the USSR's space program. The first European satellites is placed in orbit
1974: The Russians place the first man on the Moon after the American attempt blows up at launch. The USAF successfully launch and land a manned
boost-glide spaceplane.
1976: With the costs of the space race rising much faster than the Soviet economy, the Soviet government decides to partially redirect their efforts in space to civilian uses. Sharapov still publicly pledge to put a man on Mars, which the Americans promise to beat.