Earlier end to Japan's isolation
- Thread starter Hawkeye
- Start date
maverick
Banned
Hmmm...the Shogunate attempts to modernize, while the Dutch expand their holdings in Hizen province.
The British, being the only ones able to project power in the area, but busy enough with China, which is bloody huge and is the most massive market ever, do take some time out of their busy schedule to open a few Treaty Ports in Kyushu or southern Honshu in the 1840s. If they can return in the 1850s or 1860s, they could come in full force and declare a protectorate over Kyushu or western Honshu, if the government is interested.
Then come the Russians, who might try to do the same in Ezo and Nothern Honshu...maybe the Date Clan can help them, or the Matsumae of southern Hokkaido.
Meanwhile the Mori Clan and other anti-Shogunate holdings begin to rally against the evil foreign barbarians, and might be able to topple the Shogunate, but expelling the foreigners might be out of the question since they've had had two or three decades to become entrenched in the biggest ports.
The British, being the only ones able to project power in the area, but busy enough with China, which is bloody huge and is the most massive market ever, do take some time out of their busy schedule to open a few Treaty Ports in Kyushu or southern Honshu in the 1840s. If they can return in the 1850s or 1860s, they could come in full force and declare a protectorate over Kyushu or western Honshu, if the government is interested.
Then come the Russians, who might try to do the same in Ezo and Nothern Honshu...maybe the Date Clan can help them, or the Matsumae of southern Hokkaido.
Meanwhile the Mori Clan and other anti-Shogunate holdings begin to rally against the evil foreign barbarians, and might be able to topple the Shogunate, but expelling the foreigners might be out of the question since they've had had two or three decades to become entrenched in the biggest ports.
A Japan forced open earlier may have knock-on effects for Korea. The Americans and French attempted to force open Korea in the 1850's, but rather half-heartedly. Chinese humiliations in the Opium wars and the Japanese policies helped to encourage Korea to keep Westerners out. A earlier opened Japan, whether it led to an earlier modernised Japan or a Japan divided by colonial powers, would have an effect on Korean policy in this regard.
I wonder if Charles W. King attempts to open Japan to trade will be more profitable if Japan is already opening. Hell, that could be the PoD, a show of American force two decades earlier than OTL. The US would probably be a useful friend to a modernising Japan in this period.
I wonder if Charles W. King attempts to open Japan to trade will be more profitable if Japan is already opening. Hell, that could be the PoD, a show of American force two decades earlier than OTL. The US would probably be a useful friend to a modernising Japan in this period.
The question is what "open Japan" means. Opening might result in earlier Meiji reforms, which should imply that Japan becomes a great power faster. This should be interesting as the Europeans might not necessarily be ready to face a powerful Japan early on. On the other side, opening might result in a semi-colonial status as China. If this is the case, we'd probably see increased Russian expansion on the continent and in Japan and the other colonial powers trying to promote an "open door" policy.
Right, but why did the Meji Revolution change that? Japan in 1830 is still a sophisticated, highly literate state with a relatively advanced financial system. It has a cohesive national identity. What will break?
The most plausible POD would when when the Tokugawa Shogunate forms. If it had opened itself up to European military technology and ideas instead of closing in on itself, banning firearms, and eradicating the newly forms Christian communities it would have developed extremely fast. the crucial thing about that point in time is that Europe had no ability of invading Japan at the time. Imagine a Japan in 1700 with then current European-level weapons and ships.
(twich) Where is Flocc when you need him?
First off, by 1700 European firearms weren't much better than an average bow and arrow. China was by far stronger then Japan would have ever been and Japan had no hope of conquering it. Hideyoshi might have been able to capture Korea and a Chinese province which the latter would have became nothing more than a political quagmire for Japan (although the former may be more interesting if Korea ends up being something to Japan like Ireland being to Britain). The reason Japan was able to modernize relatively easy was because of the reasons Faalin just mentioned. It had a literate population, a wealthy economy, and a strong national identity. All of which were developed under the Tokugawa Shogunate, so if Japan instead spent all it's time and resources on something stupid like trying to conquer the Pacific rim then I'd imagine that it would become something like China or maybe Siam by being carved up in European spheres of influence.
My point is that people like to buy into the idea that Japan only modernized by the skin of its teeth through strength of will. In reality Japan was probably the most modern part of the world outside of North America and Europe, with a history of centralized rule.
Early Modern Japan has always struck me as having so many socioeconomic similarities with Early Modern Western Europe it's eerie! I was amused when I read about how many samurai got into debt with the bankers.
Shogunate Japan had a very strongly developed Proto-Capitalist merchant class that was very wealthy. Wasn't Kikoman, the company that makes soy sauce, founded in the 1600s?NothingNow
Banned
Officially founded in 1917 from a collection of family buisnesses dating back as far as 1603, aka Pre-sakoku.Early Modern Japan has always struck me as having so many socioeconomic similarities with Early Modern Western Europe it's eerie! I was amused when I read about how many samurai got into debt with the bankers.
Ah, interesting, thanks!
You're welcome. Just remember next time that Japan's Meiji magic doesn't work backways.
Britain is able to get Tea from Japan in exchange for goods Japan actually wants (e.g. iron). Thus the Opium wars don't (have to) happen.
On the other hand, the manchu managed to overrun China pretty quickly, no?
There's no reason Japan couldn't have developed economically if it was more open to foreign trade. It's not an either or thing, where Japan had to figure out how to spend 100 points.
Yes, but the problem with that is unlike the Manchu the Japanese would have to project power from across the sea so it would have to establish a secure route to China. Japan couldn't defeat Korea's navy not to mention the guerilla war on the land. And even then the Manchu would have never of had a prayer of conquering China if the Ming hadn't collapsed.
I'm not saying it's impossible but it's a uphill battle on a very steep hill.
It helped that the Chinese state apparatus was largely preserved; I think it's more of a case of replacing a dynasty than defeating a China that wanted to fight back at all costs. I can't see the Japanese proceeding in the same fashion.