Earlier Downfall

What if MacArthur dies by accident at some point in mid-1944? Instead of an invasion of the Philippines, the US moves directly towards striking Japan, with the invasions of the Bonins and Ryukyus taking place roughly four months earlier than in OTL. Say Iwo Jima takes place from October-December 1944 (February-March 1945 OTL) in place of Leyte, with the "Final Battle" that Leyte Gulf was in OTL being fought in the vicinity. Okinawa is invaded on New Years' Day 1945, with resistance wrapping up in March 1945.

Moving up invasion dates accordingly, does this mean we actually see Downfall taking place? Operation Olympic (invasion of Kyushu) was scheduled for October 1945. Under the new schedule, Olympic will go ahead in June 1945: fully two months before the atomic bomb is ready. These will be two awful months for the Allies in any Kyushu invasion...does this change the circumstances of the use of the atomic bomb at all?

Interestingly enough, Admiral King thought that Kyushu was a bad idea once Allied intelligence picked up the rapid increase in Japanese troop movements to the island during the spring and summer of 1945. It seems like the island of Shikoku was proposed as an alternative landing point, seeing as it was less defended, but MacArthur was adamant in going for Kyushu. With no MacArthur, do we see a less-deadly Olympic analogue taking place at Shikoku in June 1945?

Is this plausible? Any comments, ideas as to how this would develop would be appreciated. :)
 
Perhaps Formosa would be invaded. Their were plans to skip the Philipines and use some of the forces for Formosa, but Formosa was considered to be not as good of a prize if you were plannin on capturing Okinawa.

How about South Korea? How defended was sould on south on Korean peninsula? Could S Korea also be used as a stepping stone?
 
When was typhoon season in that area?
1 June ->30 Novembre


The Main problem with this is ?where will the Manpower come from?
OTL 12 of the planned 20 divisions where transfers from Europe. Therefore Downfall can not be before V-E Day.

Then there is the Time for the Transfers from ETO -> PTO.

As Intelligence Developed that most of the Japanese Army was on Kyushu, the Idea of going straight for Tokyo Bay began to gain traction.
Given another couple months -- Maybe.
 

J.D.Ward

Donor
If Downfall is already in progress when the A-bombs become available, is there any likelihood of seing the bombs being used as a battlefield weapon rather than against cities?
 
If Downfall is already in progress when the A-bombs become available, is there any likelihood of seing the bombs being used as a battlefield weapon rather than against cities?

The horrifying thing, at least with the adcvantage of hindsight, is that this is pretty much what some of those in the know were planning. There was talk of bombs being used to clear the beaches immediately prior to forces being landed.:eek: Of course nothing really was known about fall-out then.

As DuQuense says there are problems of timing with such an invasion. Plus its highly unlikely more than the historical number of bombs are likely to be available so probably still going to be used against civilian targets if Japan is still fighting at this point.

The really nasty thing would be if an invasion caused a final surge of national unity behind resistance. Could have the war going on for about the historical time but with much, much higher casualties, both military and civilian.

Steve
 
When was typhoon season in that area?


And all it would take is one typhoon and the Japanese will go into a trance, recalling the divine intervention that destroyed the Mongol Fleets. A typhoon would be a sign to the Japanese, and afterwards, they would never surrender.
 
And all it would take is one typhoon and the Japanese will go into a trance, recalling the divine intervention that destroyed the Mongol Fleets. A typhoon would be a sign to the Japanese, and afterwards, they would never surrender.
There was a major [cat 6?] typhoon that hit Okinawa at the end of Oct OTL, sinking several ships and destroying million of dollars worth of supplies.
If there had been no Bomb, Operation Downfall would have been postponed several Months.
 
There was a major [cat 6?] typhoon that hit Okinawa at the end of Oct OTL, sinking several ships and destroying million of dollars worth of supplies.
If there had been no Bomb, Operation Downfall would have been postponed several Months.


Yeah, that would have only encouraged the Japanese to resist to the bitter end. The Japanese would believe the Wind of the Kami saved them yet again, and it would have seriously delayed the invasion.
 
There was a major [cat 6?] typhoon that hit Okinawa at the end of Oct OTL, sinking several ships and destroying million of dollars worth of supplies.
If there had been no Bomb, Operation Downfall would have been postponed several Months.

I don't know if this was ever proven, but that typhoon is usually thought to have been caused by disruptions to the normal weather patterns originating with the Atomic Bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Explains why it went completely unforseen. No bombings, and that typhoon never happens (although the effects of a parallel one would be as described, both in material and Japanese morale terms).
 
And all it would take is one typhoon and the Japanese will go into a trance, recalling the divine intervention that destroyed the Mongol Fleets. A typhoon would be a sign to the Japanese, and afterwards, they would never surrender.

Oh god...just imagine, the invasion hits as OTL, Little Boy and Fat Man are used in a tactical role, a rogue IJN sub sees the typhoon hit Okinawa and radios Tokyo, where the word gets out...

It would be like Operation Iceburg, except with all of Japan.
 
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