Earlier Communist China means what for British Raj?

A 1927 Red China means...

  • British Raj still survives until OTL

    Votes: 33 58.9%
  • India is liberated earlier

    Votes: 6 10.7%
  • India is liberated earlier & goes Communist

    Votes: 10 17.9%
  • Some other crazy outcome

    Votes: 7 12.5%

  • Total voters
    56
If China went communist between 1927-29 via a massively more successful Nanchang Uprising, what effect would it have had on the national liberation movement in the Raj?
 
Does the first option mean "The Raj lasts until it lasted OTL" or does it mean "survives until the present day"?
 
Sorry. I mean OTL end date*

Thought so, just wanted to check. I've gone for that option then. I can't imagine China would have the ability to start flooding over the border, or that if they did they'd be seen as liberators. There'd be an uptick in trouble but not enough to make Britain pull out until after the war.

Of course, whether the war would still be "The War" with another huge communist state on the block is another question...
 
Thought so, just wanted to check. I've gone for that option then. I can't imagine China would have the ability to start flooding over the border, or that if they did they'd be seen as liberators. There'd be an uptick in trouble but not enough to make Britain pull out until after the war.

Of course, whether the war would still be "The War" with another huge communist state on the block is another question...

Maybe not. But the effects on the ideology of Indian nationalists...surely they would consider going full red if they see earlier success further north.

And to your second point, I guess the US, pending a worse red scare (which certainly would amplified along with the "yellow peril") might consider backing up Japan in a Sino war scenario.
 
I imagine India would go red as well then. Can't imagine the British enforcing their rule on India any stronger than they did OTL.
 
Most likely there'd be intervention or support for the non-Communists in China. Hard to see how the warlords or Japanese would allow for a Communist state to take place in China. They'd be even less successful than Chiang at ending the warlord era and unifying the country.
 
I dont think Communist China would then become much of a threat, while it would be (at first) less corrupt than The Nationalists, Mao, being the backstabbing bastard he was, could actually do what he threatened earlier on--establish a Hunanese state since he hadn't gained control. This communist China could spiral into warlordism as easily as the Nationalists had. China would inevitably unite, but I would think India would have freed itself by then, communist or not.
 

Japhy

Banned
Like a Long March scenario with Chaing instead of Mao?
:eek:
Man I'd love to read that.

But he wouldn't have the basis to embark upon the strategy of the Long March. There's no reason he would attempt to flee inland and towards the USSR and a potential safe haven there.

And at the end of the day there's no way to have the Nanchang Uprising lead to a Communist lead China in that time period, without changing the nature of things to the extent that you can't even talk about a Nanchang Uprising.

The Communist Party was a uselessly small organization at the start of cooperation with the KMT, while the party had grown in size over the course of the alliance, it was also a practically entirely urban party, there's a reason it took over two decades, and the disastrous 1941-42 collapse of the KMT and the end of the Sino-Japanese War to actually make it out on top.

To have the strength to theoretically "win" over the KMT in the Northern Expedition era they would need the the KMT to avoid April 12, which in turn would trigger foreign intervention to stop the KMT, which because of their urban party nature, in the coastal cities would doom themselves. Or they need to remain on good terms with Wang Jingwei's Wuhan Government, where they will still be the junior party, though the KMT-Left at least is less likely to kill them all and more likely to just turn them into a faction of the larger organization. And of course if the Wuhan Government beats Chiang, that also triggers the foreign intervention against the Northern Expedition, which dooms the Communist Party.

Nanchang wasn't some 1917 like attempt at a seizure of power, it was a broken party fighting for its survival.
 
But he wouldn't have the basis to embark upon the strategy of the Long March. There's no reason he would attempt to flee inland and towards the USSR and a potential safe haven there.

I think this actually proves my point about Indian nationalists being likely to go red in an early communist China scenario.
If the KMT lost the coast and the central eastern areas, yes Chaing wouldn't go north to the USSR but south toward Yunnan and British India.
If a "Long March" were to occur for Chaing, it would undoubtly involve the Raj.

And at the end of the day there's no way to have the Nanchang Uprising lead to a Communist lead China in that time period, without changing the nature of things to the extent that you can't even talk about a Nanchang Uprising.

The Communist Party was a uselessly small organization at the start of cooperation with the KMT, while the party had grown in size over the course of the alliance, it was also a practically entirely urban party, there's a reason it took over two decades, and the disastrous 1941-42 collapse of the KMT and the end of the Sino-Japanese War to actually make it out on top.

To have the strength to theoretically "win" over the KMT in the Northern Expedition era they would need the the KMT to avoid April 12, which in turn would trigger foreign intervention to stop the KMT, which because of their urban party nature, in the coastal cities would doom themselves. Or they need to remain on good terms with Wang Jingwei's Wuhan Government, where they will still be the junior party, though the KMT-Left at least is less likely to kill them all and more likely to just turn them into a faction of the larger organization. And of course if the Wuhan Government beats Chiang, that also triggers the foreign intervention against the Northern Expedition, which dooms the Communist Party.

Nanchang wasn't some 1917 like attempt at a seizure of power, it was a broken party fighting for its survival.

I don't disagree with this. The only reason I chose Nanchang as a POD was due it being the last major insurrection before the Northern Expedition.
 
An early Red China would have one advantage in combating warlordism, in that the Soviet Union would be very eager to stabilise and strengthen their new major ally to the south, and would probably be willing to send men and material to the aid of the Chinese government.
 

Japhy

Banned
I think this actually proves my point about Indian nationalists being likely to go red in an early communist China scenario.
If the KMT lost the coast and the central eastern areas, yes Chaing wouldn't go north to the USSR but south toward Yunnan and British India.
If a "Long March" were to occur for Chaing, it would undoubtly involve the Raj.

No. He wouldn't bother at all, he'd go into exile. Most of the KMT leadership would.



I don't disagree with this. The only reason I chose Nanchang as a POD was due it being the last major insurrection before the Northern Expedition.

The Northern Expedition had already started. That's how you had rival KMT governments in the Yangtze River Cities.
 

Japhy

Banned
Don't think so.
And if he did, it be in Raj territory. Which again proves my point.

Doubtful, the traditional exile location was Japan. With Singapore or the US West Coast as the follow ups.

That said, with the loss of his base of support with the Chinese Merchants, Industrialists and Bankers, why would his policy become to march though the hinterland? Where his Anti-Land Reform stance would lead him to have no support from the people and his hardliners unification stance without the Power the Northern Expedition provided would leave him with no support from the Warlords? Exile, and the ability to develop an underground, and to play with divisions in the Left-KMT/CPC regime is his road back to leadership, not running off to hide out near British South Asia.
 
Mahatma Gandhi led the Indian National Congress and he was completely non-violent while Mao and his Chinese Communist party were anything. So for Chinese Communists to take control of the Indian National Congress Gandhi would either have to be dead or have a complete one hundred and eighty degree change in attitude. Given what the British did to him time and time again I don't see that change of attitude. So while some fringe elements of the Free India movement might be incline to go communist. The bulk of the movement would stay with Gandhi and the course of nonviolent resistance
 
I think the communism of China will horrify Britain to the point that they will work even harder to keep India.
 
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