If China went communist between 1927-29 via a massively more successful Nanchang Uprising, what effect would it have had on the national liberation movement in the Raj?
Does the first option mean "The Raj lasts until it lasted OTL" or does it mean "survives until the present day"?
Sorry. I mean OTL end date*
Thought so, just wanted to check. I've gone for that option then. I can't imagine China would have the ability to start flooding over the border, or that if they did they'd be seen as liberators. There'd be an uptick in trouble but not enough to make Britain pull out until after the war.
Of course, whether the war would still be "The War" with another huge communist state on the block is another question...
This communist China could spiral into warlordism as easily as the Nationalists had. China would inevitably unite
Like a Long March scenario with Chaing instead of Mao?
Man I'd love to read that.
But he wouldn't have the basis to embark upon the strategy of the Long March. There's no reason he would attempt to flee inland and towards the USSR and a potential safe haven there.
And at the end of the day there's no way to have the Nanchang Uprising lead to a Communist lead China in that time period, without changing the nature of things to the extent that you can't even talk about a Nanchang Uprising.
The Communist Party was a uselessly small organization at the start of cooperation with the KMT, while the party had grown in size over the course of the alliance, it was also a practically entirely urban party, there's a reason it took over two decades, and the disastrous 1941-42 collapse of the KMT and the end of the Sino-Japanese War to actually make it out on top.
To have the strength to theoretically "win" over the KMT in the Northern Expedition era they would need the the KMT to avoid April 12, which in turn would trigger foreign intervention to stop the KMT, which because of their urban party nature, in the coastal cities would doom themselves. Or they need to remain on good terms with Wang Jingwei's Wuhan Government, where they will still be the junior party, though the KMT-Left at least is less likely to kill them all and more likely to just turn them into a faction of the larger organization. And of course if the Wuhan Government beats Chiang, that also triggers the foreign intervention against the Northern Expedition, which dooms the Communist Party.
Nanchang wasn't some 1917 like attempt at a seizure of power, it was a broken party fighting for its survival.
I think this actually proves my point about Indian nationalists being likely to go red in an early communist China scenario.
If the KMT lost the coast and the central eastern areas, yes Chaing wouldn't go north to the USSR but south toward Yunnan and British India.
If a "Long March" were to occur for Chaing, it would undoubtly involve the Raj.
I don't disagree with this. The only reason I chose Nanchang as a POD was due it being the last major insurrection before the Northern Expedition.
Don't think so.No. He wouldn't bother at all, he'd go into exile. Most of the KMT leadership would.
My mistake.The Northern Expedition had already started. That's how you had rival KMT governments in the Yangtze River Cities.
Don't think so.
And if he did, it be in Raj territory. Which again proves my point.