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Say that Habsburgs managed to make agreement with their Hungarian subjects and Hungarian problem is solved without Russian involvement (popably with Dual Monarchy created autonomy for Galizia is also given earlier). Would Austria join Crimean War against Russia in such case? For Austria Russian expansion to the Balkans is serious danger, so if Franz Josef do not owe Nicholas anything ITTL I see him joining. His goal could be reclaiming New Galizia lost in 1809.
In such case would Prussia join too? Prussians have good relations with Russia due to fear of Polish irredentism but ITTL there is possibility that Austria would grab some land from Russia so Prussians should do the same to balance Austria's growth. In such case Russia is going to lose all Congress Poland which would be divided between Prussia and Austria along 1795 border. It is plausible outcome?

EDIT: Perhaps good start would be to make Franz Josef less conservative for two reasons-he'd be more likely to agree for Ausgleich and would care less about Russia as guardian of European order against liberal movements.
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