Earlier Ausgleich and Crimean War

[Jan Olbracht]

Say that Habsburgs managed to make agreement with their Hungarian subjects and Hungarian problem is solved without Russian involvement (popably with Dual Monarchy created autonomy for Galizia is also given earlier). Would Austria join Crimean War against Russia in such case? For Austria Russian expansion to the Balkans is serious danger, so if Franz Josef do not owe Nicholas anything ITTL I see him joining. His goal could be reclaiming New Galizia lost in 1809.
In such case would Prussia join too? Prussians have good relations with Russia due to fear of Polish irredentism but ITTL there is possibility that Austria would grab some land from Russia so Prussians should do the same to balance Austria's growth. In such case Russia is going to lose all Congress Poland which would be divided between Prussia and Austria along 1795 border. It is plausible outcome?

EDIT: Perhaps good start would be to make Franz Josef less conservative for two reasons-he'd be more likely to agree for Ausgleich and would care less about Russia as guardian of European order against liberal movements.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

Say that Habsburgs managed to make agreement with their Hungarian subjects and Hungarian problem is solved without Russian involvement (popably with Dual Monarchy created autonomy for Galizia is also given earlier). Would Austria join Crimean War against Russia in such case? For Austria Russian expansion to the Balkans is serious danger, so if Franz Josef do not owe Nicholas anything ITTL I see him joining. His goal could be reclaiming New Galizia lost in 1809.
In such case would Prussia join too? Prussians have good relations with Russia due to fear of Polish irredentism but ITTL there is possibility that Austria would grab some land from Russia so Prussians should do the same to balance Austria's growth. In such case Russia is going to lose all Congress Poland which would be divided between Prussia and Austria along 1795 border. It is plausible outcome?

EDIT: Perhaps good start would be to make Franz Josef less conservative for two reasons-he'd be more likely to agree for Ausgleich and would care less about Russia as guardian of European order against liberal movements.

Crimean War could be earlier. During the Greek Revolution. If the Ottomans crush the rebellion at least by 1825 and Russia intervenes anyway, maybe defeating the Ottoman navy it might drive the British and French in an anti Russian coalition. The British want a safe Medditeranean and the French want old glory. The Greek rebellion needs to be crushed by 1825. You can prevent the West from turning against you at least.

I can't say much about an Ausgleich since the Hungarian rebellion happened in 1848 and the loss of Northern Italy drove the Austrians to the Ausgleich. So unless the Austrians lose territory and the Hungarians will rebel any moment, it is not gonna happen.

The borders of 1795 is possible but also unlikely. Especially with France being paranoid about Prussia.