Earlier Allied victory in North Africa?

There were decisions to make over strategy, priorities, technical details. If Africa is cleared in the summer of 1941, then what would the Brits choose to do next?
 
There were decisions to make over strategy, priorities, technical details. If Africa is cleared in the summer of 1941, then what would the Brits choose to do next?
If Africa is in Allied hands by then, then the Allied Powers could attempt an invasion into Italy or the Balkans. Which one is more vulnerable to the Allies?
 

Deleted member 1487

Would this cause Vichy France to enter the war? Could the Allies take Vichy French Africa?
I may be wrong, especially if the military refuses, but yeah I'd imagine that Vichy would DoW Britain over it; IOTL they were told that the French in North Africa would resist the British, but not the Americans, so they highly limited the initial ground role of the Brits in Torch. IOTL though Syria-Lebanon and Madagascar were both invaded by the Brits before Torch and saw heavy fighting, but Vichy didn't DoW Britain...thing is though North Africa is considered the 4th Shore of France at this point, so it would be a different ballgame.
 

nbcman

Donor
If the Germans stay out of Libya, I’d hope the Commonwealth, primarily the UK, would take some of their forces that they wouldn’t lose due to no Operation Sonnenblume and reinforce South East Asia. More troops and obsolescent kit would have been an improvement over the obsolete kit and too few personnel of OTL.

I don’t think that the UK could attempt any significant invasion in 1941. Sicily is out and Sardinia is too far from friendly airbases with Vichy North Africa in play. Maybe Crete or Rhodes?
 
Probably an all British affair that may well go as well as their stand alone effort in the Aegean in 1943.

The US is liable to be in before this occurs. If Tripoli is captured in June the it's only five months until Japan attacks the US. If Tripoli is taken in September then it's less than three.
 
Have OPERATION COMPASS not do as well initially, remember it was supposed to just be a raid that developed momentum of its own. Maybe all they the Allies capture is Tobruk and a lot of Italian units retreat in good order.

As someone else suggested, have the Italians do better in Greece and Hitler decides they don't need his help in the Mediterranean (other than some airpower to help suppress Malta) and he goes forward with BARBAROSSA planning and then a late spring/early summer British offensive starts rolling across Libya and by then it is too close to June 1941.

I can see TORCH happening earlier and I can also see Winston casting his gaze toward Norway at some point.
 
The US is liable to be in before this occurs. If Tripoli is captured in June the it's only five months until Japan attacks the US. If Tripoli is taken in September then it's less than three.

But you may very well see the US not getting involved in North Africa in that case, which runs the risk of the Americans insisting on Sledgehammer or Roundup as their initial deployment as opposed to Torch.
 
How can the Allies win in North Africa earlier? A more successful Operation Compass? Not redirecting the same British divisions that went towards the Balkans? What effects could this have on the rest of the war?

Compass was already a massive success - one of the most one sided victories of the war!

It's hard to see how it could have been more successful

As for the rest...well....

  1. A Larger and possibly slightly earlier operation Judgement - using say 3 carriers (Ark Royal and Eagle as well as Illustrious) with 60+ strike planes - results in all the battleships being sunk/mission killed and a number of the heavy cruisers also sunk/mission killed - Malta is reinforced as Cunningham wanted it to be by April 41 (40 supply ships not 16) and it starts heavily interdicting Axis logistics - and proves Mussolini's claim of Mare Nostrum a lie
  2. This has several knock on effects - ultimately reduced losses for the RN (less of a 'Verdun of the Med' than OTL) and greater logistical issues for the Axis with greater losses to its merchant marine
  3. Having successfully completed Compass Wavell rotates his units as per OTL but when asked to send W force to Greece the Australian and NZ commanders delay waiting for clearance from their respective Governments and by the time W forces gets organised the Germans have already made their move and instead of delivering W force it becomes a rescue mission as the German army overruns the Metaxas line before things can get organised - and the RN instead of deploying W Force recovers as many Greek forces as possible and brings them back to Crete where teh NZ Division has setup - with all of its equipment. 2 Greek Divisions worth of troops are recovered to Crete along with the surviving government which forms a 'government in exile' in Heraklion. Italian Tanks and Artillery along with other equipment captured during Op Compass is used to re-equip those 2 Greek Divisions.
  4. Spitfire Squadrons are prised from the hands of Fighter command 3 for Malta and 4 for the DAF by April 41 - OTL P40s and Hurricanes had a tough time vs the 109s of JG27 - as soon as Spitfires turned up in late 42 (principly the 3 x Eagle Squadrons) life got very 'interesting' ITTL it gets interesting earlier.
  5. In 41 - there was about 29 Divisions in the UK and about 10-12 were fully trained and fully equipped (the remainder still in training or parent formations for AAA and spotlight units) - in TTL have about 5 of them them released for service overseas again 1 or 2 more Armoured Divisions and 2-3 infantry Divisions deployed to North Africa and East Africa - this eases the burden on some of the Australian and other Commonwealth units.
  6. Sonnenbaum is weaker due to greater interdiction of Axis supply lines and attacks on Axis harbour facilities - in comparison the units intended for W force are still mostly in North Africa without having lost their heavy equipment and transport in Greece and Rommel's attack is less successful and ultimately repulsed due to the stronger and better experienced forces opposing him.
  7. So OTL the Sonnonbaum and Greek adventures cost the Commonwealth and allied forces about 5.5 Divisions worth of heavy equipment (and this less than a year after Dunkirk) and roughly a Division and a half of troops - the cost here is far less and far more costlier for the Axis forces (especially as they get pushed back and have to abandon equipment) and they remain pushed out of Cyrenaica during 41 and this gives Wavell the time he needed to build up
  8. The Airborne invasion of Crete fails with heavy losses to the 7th Flieger and 5th Mountain divisions and over 300 aircraft lost mostly Transport aircraft from Fliegerkorps XI. Both Axis divisions are effectively reduced to cadre.
  9. In August 41 following the Japanese occupation of FIC at the end of July and with Malaya now threatened by a land invasion the War Cabinet decides (in light of additional British units now in theatre) to withdraw the Middle East based units of the 2nd Australian Imperial force back to Malaya and Australia and centre the defence of Malaya and Singers on the 2AIF - and with a wing of Spitfires now in North Africa mixing it up with the 'superstars' of JG27 and other Axis air units the 2nd AIF is accompanied to Malaya by several RAAF P40 Squadrons. Fewer losses on Malta and in the DAF allows for increased numbers of Hurricanes to equip those units OTL equipped with the Buffalo. In a 'Churchillian' move - 300 Covenanter tanks are also sent from the UK for the Australian First Armoured division to train with - despite their overheating issues (which is largely fixed with a local mod). Reduced losses to the RN vs OTL with greater losses to the Italian Navy vs OTL allows for additional units to be stood up in the Far East by Nov 41.
  10. So ultimately the Allies are better placed to build up and advance West towards Tripoli in late 41 and certainly sending more forces to defeat the Italians in East Africa earlier. This in turn frees up the 2nd AIF to move all 4 Infantry and its forming Armoured division to form the core Imperial force in Malaya and rotate 1 of the units home along with additional Air and naval assets.
 
Hopefully. Just a few better corps commanders would give the Japanese fits. A veteran corps would stuff Yamashita tiny Army. Add in a couple carriers and some veteran fighter wings and the Japanese southern offensive dies on the Maylasian coast.

Yep have the balance of the 2nd Australian Imperial Force in Malaya and that alone would be more powerful than the Japanese invasion force - in fact they would have to probably increase the force and assets allocated to the Burma Campaign which means that they are not somewhere else.

And that somewhere else might be forces allocated to the Philippines and Burma!
 
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