Dynamics of independent 17th century Limburg, Gelre and Friesland

HJ Tulp

Donor
In a timeline I'm working on the United Republic of the Netherlands falls apart in 1650. Basically the provinces of Holland, Utrecht and Zeeland try to dethrone the Stadholder of Friesland-Groningen-Drenthe after the death of William II. They will fail but it will break the Union. So afterwards we will have Holland, Utrecht and Zeeland forming a country together and http://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willem_Frederik_van_Nassau-Dietz will almost certainly control the provinces of Friesland, Groningen and Drenthe. For the rest I'm pretty much blank though. I know very little about the Netherlands outside of Holland in that period so I could really use some help! What are the Estates-lands (basically occupied territory) going to do? How about Gelre, is it going to go with Friesland or will it go at it alone? How will those new statelets be governed?

I also wonder about the Holy Roman Empire. The United Provinces have only been independent from the HRE since 1648. I could imagine Willem-Frederik wanting his lands to be part of the HRE again as he was already a lord in the HRE or would I be wrong in presuming that? Would it be even possible for any of the new statelets to rejoin the HRE?

I'm open to all suggestions! :)

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EDIT: and apologies for any grammatical or spelling mistakes :)
 
For the rest I'm pretty much blank though. I know very little about the Netherlands outside of Holland in that period so I could really use some help! What are the Estates-lands (basically occupied territory) going to do? How about Gelre, is it going to go with Friesland or will it go at it alone? How will those new statelets be governed?

Hmm. The States of Gelderland were split over the decision and would likely be swayed by momentous decisions. The breakup of the union obviously counts as a momentous decision. So it depends on how it happens. If the Hollanders essentially act impetuously and say "death to monarchs" and such and act a bit like the English only a year before then the ferocity of their actions may make the Gelderlanders side with William Frederick as the more moderate alternative. If Frederick William continues to demand that the Provinces must have a Stadtholder (as I believe the Union of Utrecht stated?) and his troops commit atrocities as they attack Amsterdam, then the Groningen States may well side with Holland as the reasonable alternative. It may well come down to which side offends them the least. If both sides start sucking up to them, it's very hard to say, but likely so soon after their confirmation of independence, anyone who threatens the unity of the country by breaking away is probably going to be viewed negatively, especially as Gelderland is close to the frontier with the Spanish Netherlands.

If Gelderland goes with Holland, then the Generality land is definitely going to go to Holland. If Gelderland sides with William Frederick then it's hard to say. It may well be divided between the two, or equally likely claimed by Holland on the basis that it's administered from Holland, even if technically owned by the whole. If one side (Holland or Friesland-Groningen) explicitly secedes from the United Provinces, it's logical to say that they would void their claim, though.

Just my opinion though.

I also wonder about the Holy Roman Empire. The United Provinces have only been independent from the HRE since 1648. I could imagine Willem-Frederik wanting his lands to be part of the HRE again as he was already a lord in the HRE or would I be wrong in presuming that? Would it be even possible for any of the new statelets to rejoin the HRE?

Of course they could rejoin the HRE - the Emperor certainly isn't going to turn away a power increase - but I don't think that William would want to rejoin the HRE. Being independent gave him much greater prestige and thus more influence, importance, and control. He wouldn't want the Emperor to be messing with his state - setting taxes, forcing him to pay for wars he had no part of, and even more so, subjecting the Protestant Netherlands to a Catholic monarch once more. If anything, he'd probably want the ability to withdraw Nassau from the HRE, but that wasn't really likely to happen.

EDIT: and apologies for any grammatical or spelling mistakes :)

Your English looks pretty good to me. Near-perfect in fact.



I'm curious as to how all this would shape future wars against France/Spain. Would it make it that much easier for the Netherlands to be overrun? Would these countries actually survive in the long run?
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
First off thanks for the respons :)

Hmm. The States of Gelderland were split over the decision and would likely be swayed by momentous decisions. The breakup of the union obviously counts as a momentous decision. So it depends on how it happens. If the Hollanders essentially act impetuously and say "death to monarchs" and such and act a bit like the English only a year before then the ferocity of their actions may make the Gelderlanders side with William Frederick as the more moderate alternative. If Frederick William continues to demand that the Provinces must have a Stadtholder (as I believe the Union of Utrecht stated?) and his troops commit atrocities as they attack Amsterdam, then the Groningen States may well side with Holland as the reasonable alternative.
My exact POD is still under construction but it will probably be something along the lines of the attack on Amsterdam in 1650 by Willem Frederik (on orders from Willem II) being either more violent or even succesful. After the death of Willem II the Estates-faction (with Amsterdam in the lead) wants to try Willem Frederik. They don't plan to hang W-F or anything but do want to remove him from his position as Stadholder. Something the Estates of Friesland and Groningen/Drenthe can't allow and Overijssel and Gelre could be shocked about as well.


It may well come down to which side offends them the least. If both sides start sucking up to them, it's very hard to say, but likely so soon after their confirmation of independence, anyone who threatens the unity of the country by breaking away is probably going to be viewed negatively, especially as Gelderland is close to the frontier with the Spanish Netherlands.
Hmmm, I can see Hollandic haughtiness causing a bit of a problem. How high are the chancess of Gelre and/or Overijssel trying to be neutral?

If Gelderland goes with Holland, then the Generality land is definitely going to go to Holland. If Gelderland sides with William Frederick then it's hard to say. It may well be divided between the two, or equally likely claimed by Holland on the basis that it's administered from Holland, even if technically owned by the whole. If one side (Holland or Friesland-Groningen) explicitly secedes from the United Provinces, it's logical to say that they would void their claim, though.
I don't think Zeeland will let Zeelandic-Flanders go, if only to keep Antwerp closed. I'm pretty curious about Staats-Brabant and especially Staats-Limburg though. Especially as the last one is very isolated from the Republic (or what is left of it after the POD). What will the effect of a (short) Civil War between Holland and Willem-Frederik be? Would a Catholic uprising be possible?

Of course they could rejoin the HRE - the Emperor certainly isn't going to turn away a power increase - but I don't think that William would want to rejoin the HRE. Being independent gave him much greater prestige and thus more influence, importance, and control. He wouldn't want the Emperor to be messing with his state - setting taxes, forcing him to pay for wars he had no part of, and even more so, subjecting the Protestant Netherlands to a Catholic monarch once more. If anything, he'd probably want the ability to withdraw Nassau from the HRE, but that wasn't really likely to happen.
Wouldn't joining the HRE provide for at least some protection? I also ask because Willem-Frederik tried and eventually got his appointment as Imperial Prince.

I'm curious as to how all this would shape future wars against France/Spain. Would it make it that much easier for the Netherlands to be overrun? Would these countries actually survive in the long run?

Well this brings me to the idea behind my TL (as first proposed here: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=255573): making a more powerful Amsterdam by amputating the eastern provinces from Holland, Zeeland and Utrecht. This is a 17th century idea from a book which argued that this way Holland and Zeeland could just trade away from behind the Waterline without being involved in costly land-wars. 1672 did prove that that such a defense could work. Regarding the possible other new countries I think they have at least some future just like the other small countries in the Empire. Friesland-Groningen might even expand eastwards as Oost-Friesland was almost continiously in turmoil.
 
Hmmm, I can see Hollandic haughtiness causing a bit of a problem. How high are the chancess of Gelre and/or Overijssel trying to be neutral?

Hmm. In the short term, probably very high - delaying a decision for as long as they can. But in the longer term, low, as once Holland breaks away from Groningen/Friesland (or vice versa), then being neutral will require them to form a third country, and I don't think either side would want that. They would have to support one side or the other eventually.

I don't think Zeeland will let Zeelandic-Flanders go, if only to keep Antwerp closed. I'm pretty curious about Staats-Brabant and especially Staats-Limburg though. Especially as the last one is very isolated from the Republic (or what is left of it after the POD). What will the effect of a (short) Civil War between Holland and Willem-Frederik be? Would a Catholic uprising be possible?

I'd forgotten about Staats-Limburg. Anyway, the Generality lands would remain under the control of the central government, so wherever that was (probably Amsterdam?) would keep control of the land until the two sides stopped bickering. I'm guessing they'd have to produce a settlement splitting the Generality lands according to geography though.

As for a Catholic uprising - where? Everywhere, or just the Generality lands do you mean? I don't know that much about how many Catholics remained in the UP but I'm guessing that by this time, they'd not risk it - since the UP were finally at peace with Spain, Spain would likely not interfere to help them out, and they may well fear the response, but I guess it's possible. I'm not sure.

Wouldn't joining the HRE provide for at least some protection? I also ask because Willem-Frederik tried and eventually got his appointment as Imperial Prince.

I guess it would. I would suspect that the States would want to vote on it too, though, and they might have slightly different biases, like not caring as much about Nassau-Dietz and becoming Imperial Princes. Also, W-F may well reason that Holland is a much bigger target for the French/Spanish than his country is. But maybe.

Well this brings me to the idea behind my TL (as first proposed here: https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=255573): making a more powerful Amsterdam by amputating the eastern provinces from Holland, Zeeland and Utrecht. This is a 17th century idea from a book which argued that this way Holland and Zeeland could just trade away from behind the Waterline without being involved in costly land-wars. 1672 did prove that that such a defense could work. Regarding the possible other new countries I think they have at least some future just like the other small countries in the Empire. Friesland-Groningen might even expand eastwards as Oost-Friesland was almost continiously in turmoil.

True, but doesn't a Holland with no buffer zone to its east just inviting its enemies to attack by sea? I'm not quite sure, but it would seem that without the "free territory" for France to gobble up before getting drowned out, the new logical step is to land troops up the coast, where opening the sea walls isn't so effective a tactic.

Not sure though, again.
 

HJ Tulp

Donor
I'd forgotten about Staats-Limburg. Anyway, the Generality lands would remain under the control of the central government, so wherever that was (probably Amsterdam?) would keep control of the land until the two sides stopped bickering. I'm guessing they'd have to produce a settlement splitting the Generality lands according to geography though.

Thing is, the way I'm seeing the scenario form now there is every bit a chance that at some point there are two separate Estates-General each claiming to be the real one. Add to that the fact that the garrissons in the Generality-lands will be torn between siding with the money (Holland &Co) or their general (Willem-Frederik) who commanded them for years and in war. I suspect their response will be diverse.

As for a Catholic uprising - where? Everywhere, or just the Generality lands do you mean? I don't know that much about how many Catholics remained in the UP but I'm guessing that by this time, they'd not risk it - since the UP were finally at peace with Spain, Spain would likely not interfere to help them out, and they may well fear the response, but I guess it's possible. I'm not sure.

I doubt Catholics had any real strength left in any of the provinces by then but I do think that in this scenario (occupation forces march off to war, chain of command unclear) Catholics taking over in parts of the Generality lands is a possibility. Any chance the Prince-Bishop of Liege would support such a rise up?

True, but doesn't a Holland with no buffer zone to its east just inviting its enemies to attack by sea? I'm not quite sure, but it would seem that without the "free territory" for France to gobble up before getting drowned out, the new logical step is to land troops up the coast, where opening the sea walls isn't so effective a tactic.

I'm not really worried about that to be honest. In 1672 the Netherlands was in war with England, France and some German states. It managed to keep France and the Germans outside the Waterline (which will be better prepared in this TL by virtue of being practically the border) and even the French and British fleets together couldn't force a landing.
 
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