Dying A Dream - the UK / Iran War 2006 (My first TL)

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Lemon flavoured

Lemon flavoured

Update (although not much of one really)!

3 - Border Patrols

You can stand me up at the gates of hell, but I wont back down...

Starting from the 14th of January, British and Iraqi forces vastly increased patrols along the land border between Iran and Iraq. Sometimes they were supported by combat air patrols by RAF jets. It was these CAPs that Iran took most exception to. Five days later Iran formally complained to the British, claiming that British planes were violating the border. Of course the British denied this, although it's now generally agreed that at least some of the planes did cross the border. What's not known is how intentional this was.

The 21st of January saw the first real "incident", even though no shots were fired. A British warship came close to opening fire on an Iranian patrol boat which strayed into Iraqi waters.[1] The Iranian ship withdrew "just in time" according to a declassified report released years later. Partly due to this incident, and partly due to increased border Patrols, the Iranians signalled their intentions to begin their own Combat Air Patrols around the Iran / Iraq border a couple of days later. Britain privately accused them of trying to create conflict situations.

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"It is my opinion that if the Iranian ship had not withdrawn when it did there is a very good chance that it would have been fired upon"

- Excerpt from a report about the naval incident, declassified 2015

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SECRET/NOFORN
... ASSUMING IRAN DOES GO AHEAD WITH PLANNED COMBAT AIR PATROLS, ALL UNITS ARE TO BE REMINDED THAT THEY ARE NOT TO OPEN FIRE UNLESS FIRED UPON. IF ESCALATION IS TO BE AVOIDED THESE INSTRUCTIONS MUST BE STRICTLY FOLLOWED ...

- From a memo sent to British forces on 23/1/06, published in A history of the UK / Iran war by Christopher Andrew, 2020

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[1]There have been a number of incidents like this over the years in OTL.

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Lemon flavoured

Lemon flavoured

Chapter 4 (even if no-one's posting, I'm going to keep updating it lol)

4 - Sky Masters

I'm leaving on a jet plane, don't know when I'll be back again

Both sides began flying combat air patrols around the border region, which vastly increased tensions in the area. Early in the morning on 28th of January an Iranian plane came within about 100 feet of colliding with a British Harrier. Both sides immediately blamed the other. This incident caused the United States to comment publicly for the first time, saying that escalation wasn't in the interests of either side.

Things got worse when, on the 2nd of February, an Iranian fighter crashed a few miles from the border. The exact cause has never been established, but Iran's claim that it was shot down by British Anti-Air batteries seems unlikely given what is known about force positions at the time. Britain certainly denied all knowledge. A theory emerged that Iran had crashed the plane intentionally in order to allow escalation, however, as no direct escalation was forthcoming it seems likely that there is no truth in this. There was a response by Iran however, which was to move Anti-air equipment to the border area and announce that they would shoot down any British planes which violated the border.

British readiness in the region was increased as a direct result of the threats by Iran to shoot down British planes, and it was secretly decided that if any planes were shot down in Iraqi airspace it would be considered an act of war.

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TOPSECRET/CABINET ONLY

...IF IRAN ATTACKS ANY BRITISH PLANES THAT CAN BE SHOWN TO BE IN IRAQI AIRSPACE, IT WILL BE CONSIDERED AN ACT OF WAR, AND A RESOULUTION TO THAT EFFECT WILL BE MOVED IN THE HOUSE OF COMMONS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE AFTERWARDS...

- From a memo circulated to cabinet ministers 8/2/06, declassified after the war.

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For a few days things seemed to calm down, but on the 18th of February a bomb exploded at a market in Tehran killing 6 people and wounding a number of others. The Iranian government publically blamed Britain[1], and said that any further actions would be a direct act of war. This position was repeated diplomatically and to the US.

Two days later there was another confrontation on the naval border. This time shots were fired, although no-one was injured. Once again, both sides blamed the other for the incident, each accusing the other of crossing the border illegally. In response to this, the United States publically called for both sides to use restraint and common sense, however, in a diplomatic cable to the UK government the US called for Britain to push the boundaries of what Iran would accept. The following day, a British plane came under fire in the border area, but was not damaged. It was found that the pilot had accidentally strayed into Iranian airspace, and the incident was covered up.

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SECRET/UK GOVT. ONLY

...THE IDEAL SITUATION WOULD BE ONE IN WHICH IT APPEARS THAT IRAN HAS CROSSED THE LINE WITHOUT GOOD REASON. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR ACTION SHORT OF AN INVASION UNDER THE GUISE OF SELF-DEFENSE...

- From a diplomatic cable sent from the US to the UK 20/2/06, leaked on the internet in 2010.[2]

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[1]Again, this is hardly a rare occurence in OTL.
[2]Clearly inspired by Wikileaks, whether it's the same organisation in TTL isn't important.
[3]Chapter title is from a Dale Brown novel.

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Lemon flavoured

Lemon flavoured

Very short update this time, although it'll become clear why it's important in a few updates time.

5 - Trouble at the top

I don't give a damn 'bout a bad reputation

It was around this time that some divisions started to show themselves in the British cabinet over the issue of the handling of the Iran situation. It was reported, but denied, that some cabinet ministers wanted all out war, and some wanted to back off completely from Iran. The exact nature of the splits will probably never be known. After a few days the press stopped reporting the alleged cabinet split, but it's clear from memoirs and subsequent events that the divisions were there to stay. However, There was certainly no public indication at this stage, in late February 2006, that things would go the way they did.

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The divisions weren't all that obvious at first, although they were there if you looked. I'm not really sure anyone really knew how deep they were though. If they did, they didn't say anything. I don't blame them I suppose. Given where it ended up, some people have suggested that I played one side against the other. That certainly wasn't my intention, although given what happened I can see why the rumour started. - Harriet Harman, My rise and fall, an autobiography, published 2013.

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Lemon flavoured

Lemon flavoured

6 - No Blood For Oil?

I'm supposed to be the soldier who never blows his composure / even though I hold the weight of the whole world on my shoulders

March 2006 is now generally seen as the month which made some form of conflict inevitable. It started out with an incident which was never fully explained at the time, but which became important later on. In the early hours of March 2nd a small group of Iranian troops crossed the Iraqi border and occupied a long disputed oil terminal.[1] The British used diplomatic pressure to attempt to get the Iranians to leave, and threatened force if they didn't. The latter decision caused more splits in the British cabinet, as a number wanted to avoid any escalation.

After Iran ignored all British messages for 24 hours, and after a cabinet meeting that was described as "fractious", it was decided to remove the Iranians by force, using the SAS. This action was carried out in the early hours of March 4th, and was successful in removing the Iranian troops. Whether there were any casualties on either side has never been officially revealed. Later on March 4th the Iranian President made a speech describing the British actions as "Imperialism", but stopped short of openly calling it an act of war. Diplomatically the language was even more hawkish. The speech was important for a different reason however, as it was revealed later that it contained secret coded messages[2] to Iranian agents in the UK.

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SECRET
...WE WISH TO MAKE CLEAR THAT IRANIAN TROOPS MUST BE WITHDRAWN FROM IRAQI TERRITORY AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, AND IF THEY ARE NOT THE USE OF FORCE TO REMOVE THEM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...

- From a dplomatic cable sent by the UK to Iran, 2/3/06, leaked 2010

SECRET
...THE USE OF FORCE BY BRITISH FORCES AGAINST IRANIAN ASSETS IS NOT ACCEPTABLE AND NO FURTHER SUCH INCIDENTS WILL BE TOLERATED...

- From a diplomatic cable sent by Iran to the UK after the SAS mission, 4/3/06, leaked 2010

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I wasn't actually in the cabinet at that point, but that particular meeting sticks out to me as the point where things started to look bad for Tony [Blair]. I saw Margaret [Beckett][3] afterwards, and she was fuming, as apparently were a number of others. - Harriet Harman, My rise and fall, an autobiography, published 2013.

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[1]Again, this is something which has happened a few times in OTL, most recently on 18/12/09 (that time the Iranian's left peacefully, without British prompting as far as is known).

[2]Various people have been accused of doing this, Bin Laden most often I think.

[3]This is before Beckett was made Foreign Secretary in OTL, she was Environment Secretary at the time.

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zeppelin247

this timeline seems amazing but please do not let that witch take over please it would be a disaster of epic proportions, I hope that this war does lead to regime change in Iran and I wonder how this will affect Tony Blair with him also getting so much negative press still from Iraq
 
KarneeKarnay

KarneeKarnay

Very interested. I like the build up so far but I wouldn't mind seeing this from the Iranian point of view. I immagine if that actually happened then Iran would only attempt to do this as a way to get what it wants politically. They would actually want a war but this can back fire.

Lets say Iran wants a removal of occupying forces from that oil rich area of Afghanistan next to the Iranian border. A possible way to do this is to make the insurgency a lot stronger than in OTL and that will stretch the UK forces capabilities. If Iran saw that the occupying forces looked over stretched then they could use the threat of yet another war as a way to annex the Afghan territory.

That said if the pressure for a resolution is being put on the Brits instead of the occupying forces as a whole, then this could spectacularly back fire. If the UK looks like it is being forced into a corner by and that the threat of war is coming directly from Iran then UK will have justification for an attack on Iran.

The US will take the neutral side in this as another invasion headed by US troops will be the last thing they need publicity wise. Though they will be for the UK. Hope this helps. :D
 
Lemon flavoured

Lemon flavoured

KarneeKarnay said:
Very interested. I like the build up so far but I wouldn't mind seeing this from the Iranian point of view. I immagine if that actually happened then Iran would only attempt to do this as a way to get what it wants politically. They would actually want a war but this can back fire.

Lets say Iran wants a removal of occupying forces from that oil rich area of Afghanistan next to the Iranian border. A possible way to do this is to make the insurgency a lot stronger than in OTL and that will stretch the UK forces capabilities. If Iran saw that the occupying forces looked over stretched then they could use the threat of yet another war as a way to annex the Afghan territory.

That said if the pressure for a resolution is being put on the Brits instead of the occupying forces as a whole, then this could spectacularly back fire. If the UK looks like it is being forced into a corner by and that the threat of war is coming directly from Iran then UK will have justification for an attack on Iran.

The US will take the neutral side in this as another invasion headed by US troops will be the last thing they need publicity wise. Though they will be for the UK. Hope this helps. :D
Click to expand...

The actual "Act of war" is based on something that happened in OTL (but happens in a different way here). Afghanistan will certainly be mentioned though.
 
KarneeKarnay

KarneeKarnay

Something that might be useful to mention at a later date is the First Anglo-Iranian war. The gist of it is that the allies thought that Iran might go Axis and they couldn't risk the loss of the oil from the Middle East if that happened. Britain and Russia attacked Iran and annaxed the nation within a month or so. It is the only incident of the Allies declaring war on an officially neutral nation in the entirety of the war. At the time it was very controversial. It might be worth mentioning when Iran goes to war.
 
Lemon flavoured

Lemon flavoured

7 - Straws, camels, etc.

You didn't look out below / watch the time go right out the window

Even by this point, the public were still unaware of much of what was going on. Since the incidents to this point had been casualty free (at least since the helicopter was shot down) they were getting very little air time, and most things were at least slightly behind the scenes. Iran's diplomatic language was becoming increasingly frosty, and on the 8th of March they sent a message to the British saying that they considered British patrols in the border area to be intentional provocation. Things were not helped at all when a few days later, on the 13th, a British patrol opened fire on Iranian troops that they claimed were attempting to cross the border. Although no-one was injured, Iran sent a cable effectively saying that any more actions would be considered to be an all out war.

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SECRET/UK GOVT. ONLY
...IRANIAN FORCES HAVE BEEN ORDERED THAT THEY ARE TO RESPOND WITH LETHAL FORCE TO ANY FURTHER INCIDENTS SUCH AS THE ONE EARLIER TODAY...

- From a diplomatic cable, sent from Iran to the UK, leaked 2010.

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Meanwhile, things started getting worse for Tony Blair, when on the 14th of March the Environment Secretary Margaret Beckett resigned and said she would consider forcing a leadership challenge. Harriet Harman was announced as her replacement.

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I wasn't all that surprsised by Margaret resigning, although I think the press were. I was more surprised to be named as her replacement, although obviously pleased to be in the cabinet. I didn't really expect her call for a leadership challenge to be heeded. As it happened, it wasn't needed...

- Harriet Harman, My rise and fall, an autobiography, published 2013.

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Lemon flavoured

Lemon flavoured

Quite a big update here. I might have to write some more updates soon lol, I've got the next two after this written already.

8 - Metaphorical rats leaving metaphorical ships

Woke up and for the first time / the animals were gone

The hours and days following Margaret Beckett's resignation were quite intense. The following morning at PMQs Tony Blair was critisized by both the anti-war side and the hawk side, with Bill Cash accusing him of "Abject incompetence". That was only the start of the day...

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PMQs that day went very badly. We had all sides critisizing the handling of Iran, among other things. I didn't think much more of it until about 2:30, when I ran into Ruth [Kelly] , who told me she had told Tony that she would resign the following day unless he did. I told her that I thought that was admirable, but unlikely to work. Then she told me that she wasn't the only one. Charles [Clarke] and Geoff [Hoon] had done the same thing. That changed things massively. I was surprised, but didn't really worry about it until later, probably about 6pm, when I was told by Dennis Skinner of all people that apparently Tony was going to resign as Labour leader, and then as PM when a successor was chosen. The news broke officially at 8:30.

- Harriet Harman, My rise and fall, an autobiography, published 2013.

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Hours after the news broke Labour's National Executive Committee formally made John Prescott the leader of the Labour party, leading to the odd situation where the Prime Minister wasn't the leader of the largest party in the House of Commons. It's been rumoured that some Conservative MPs considered moving a motion of no confidence as soon as possible to take advantage of the situation, but it never happened.

At first it seemed that Gordon Brown would simply step into the Leadership, and become Prime Minister, unchallenged. However, he announced the following morning that he intended to stay as Chancellor and support whoever was chosen as leader. The reasons for him chosing not to stand are not entirely clear[1], but there have been countless rumours. Was he worried about his health? Was he worried that people would say he'd started the cabinet coup? No-one really knows. The first person to officially announce they were a candidate was slightly surprising to the general public.

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I and everyone else expected Gordon to simply step in and take over unopposed. It turned out that he didn't. I've heard a lot of rumours as to why, and I've even been accused of bribing him by some people, but I personally think he was bothered about being seen as just a continuation of Tony's government. The most surprising thing though wasn't that Gordon declined to stand though, the most surprising thing was when various people started asking me if I was planning to stand. At first I wasn't, but eventually was brought round to the idea that I would be seen as a "clean break" from the Blair government.

- Harriet Harman, My rise and fall, an autobiography, published 2013.

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Even after Harriet Harman announced her intention to stand for the leadership, it was assumed that John Prescott would stand against her, but he quickly ruled himself out, saying that he had no desire to be Prime Minister. The second, and as it turned out only other, person to announce his candidacy was left winger John McDonnell. This made Harman the front runner.

It was decided by the NEC that, given the escalating situation with Iran, the leadership election would be held as soon as possible, rather than waiting for the party's conference in September. A provisional date for the result was announced as the 12th May.

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[1]A bit of a hand wave I admit.

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Lemon flavoured

Lemon flavoured

Another short update, although the next one will probably be longer.

9 - Casus Belli?

Say your prayers and light a fire, we're gonna start a war...

Since the start of the crisis with Iran, the British police increased anti-terrorist activity, especially in relation to areas seen as vulnerable. A number of arrests were made, but the most significant came on the 24th of March when two men were arrested for apparently preparing to bomb football stadiums in the North West of England. Initially this seemed to be the same as previous incidents, however it was claimed the following day that the men were Iranian agents and the Iranian ambassador was summoned.

Unsurprisingly Iran denied all knowledge of the men, but suspicions were seemingly confirmed when the men absconded after being released on bail, and then appeared on PressTV on March 30th. During the interview the men claimed to have been tortured by British authorities. Iran publically said that such action would not be tolerated and formally broke off all diplomatic links with the UK.

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By that point the war was inevitable, we just didn't know when or how it would start

- Jack Straw, TV interview in 2012.

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