Dying A Dream - the UK / Iran War 2006 (My first TL)

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This is my first TL, so be gentle lol. I don't claim that it's researched all that well (any research is from wikipedia) nor do I claim that people will act entirely in character, but without mind reading or vast amounts of research I don't think it's sane to try. Later on there will something involving people I went to school with (although there will be a (mostly) plausible reason for giving them a footnote in history), which might be seen as nepotism, but oh well. I'm intending to post about one update a week (I have the first 8 written as I type). The style of the updates is inspired by Macargge1's Protect and Survive: A Timeline. Anyway, without further ado, the first part:

Dying a dream - A history of the UK / Iran war of 2006

1 - Forces Sweetheart?

We'll meet again, don't know where, don't know when...

The history of the British - Iranian war of 2006 - 2009 actually begins in late 2005, although it has been argued that it was inevitable after the Invasion of Iraq in 2003. Certainly there was always the potential for conflict, and almost from the outset there had been accusations of Iranian involvement in attacks in Iraq. However, despite this being mentioned fairly regulary, it wasn't really in the public conciousness until the 22nd of December 2005, when a British transport helicopter flying to the Shaibah Logistics Base in Southern Iraq was attacked by anti-air missiles. One missile hit the helicopter's main rotor, causing it to crash almost instantly and as a result killing all 14 people aboard. 13 of those killed were British military personnel. One wasn't.[1]

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Katherine Jenkins (29 June 1980 - 22 December 2005) was a Welsh mezzo-soprano. She was a classical-popular crossover singer who performed across a spectrum of operatic arias, popular songs, musical theatre and hymns. She was killed while on the way to perform for British troops when the helicopter she was travelling in was shot down in Southern Iraq.

- From wikipedia

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When it became clear that one of those killed was a British celebrity there was no shortage of groups claiming to be behind the attack. Many of them had little or no chance of actually doing such a thing, although most of the claims were investigated. The investigation became more intensive when it was found that the missiles used were of Russian (or, more likely, late Soviet) origin.[2]

The public reaction was at first one of shock. Katherine Jenkins was 25 years old and a promising singer. She had been in Iraq in order to perform for British troops in Basra at a Christmas dinner on the 23rd of December, having been inspired by a comment made by Dame Vera Lynn earlier in the year. News of her death, along with those of the other soldiers aboard the helicopter, was seen as a massive blow to public perception of the war.

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It's hard to say what I felt when I heard about it, shock I suppose mainly. 14 Britons being killed in one incident in any war is massive, but when one of them is a civilian who was there to iimprove morale, it makes it even worse. Had I known then what was going to happen I think I may have done things differently later on. - Harriet Harman, My rise and fall, an autobiography, published 2013.

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[1] Clearly this is the POD. In OTL the helicopter did come under a missile attack, but was not damaged.
[2] Artistic license and guesswork, since if the missiles weren't Iranian they'd be no story.
[3] The Title is a reference to the Katherine Jenkins album Living A Dream
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Interesting. Are you postulating a war between the UK and Iran in 2006 that does not involve the USA? That strikes me as...unlikely.

Mike Turcotte
 
Interesting. Are you postulating a war between the UK and Iran in 2006 that does not involve the USA? That strikes me as...unlikely.

Mike Turcotte

Yeah. The theory is that US stay out but support the UK (a-la the Falklands). The war is also going to be relatively limited in scope.
 
Yeah. The theory is that US stay out but support the UK (a-la the Falklands). The war is also going to be relatively limited in scope.

Tricky. Bush & Co REALLY wanted Iran, as did (do) the Israelis. Additionally, I don't think the British alone really have the capacity to 'invade' Iran. Trash the Iranian Air Force and navy, yeah, but not invade.

I'll keep reading, though.

Mike Turcotte
 
Yeah. The theory is that US stay out but support the UK (a-la the Falklands). The war is also going to be relatively limited in scope.
I was going to ask if you were going to turn Gordon Brown into Churchill mk2.

But the title of Harmans autobiography makes me think not.
 
Tricky. Bush & Co REALLY wanted Iran, as did (do) the Israelis. Additionally, I don't think the British alone really have the capacity to 'invade' Iran. Trash the Iranian Air Force and navy, yeah, but not invade.

I'll keep reading, though.

Mike Turcotte

Cheney certainly wanted Iran, I'm not so sure about Bush himself, although I doubt he'd have complained given a chance. I can certainly see the US looking for a reason to get involved.

I was going to ask if you were going to turn Gordon Brown into Churchill mk2.

But the title of Harmans autobiography makes me think not.

Your thinking would be right.
 
If you are going to make Harriet Harman PM at some point, I'll be leaving the country for Germany the next day.
 
This is a refreshingly new take on AH, I'm looking forward to seeing how this pans out. I'd agree with others that UK armed forces were pretty stretched at the time so an outright invasion, without serious US support would be difficult to pull off.

Does this occur before or after the debacle with the RN sailors being detained by the Iranians?
 

Commissar

Banned
UK vs Iran alone?

ASB as Iranian Deterrence is based on the ideal if anyone attacks them for any reason, they'll target every oil installation in the Persian Gulf and destroy them to ensure that the Oil does not flow and instantly deal a crushing economic defeat to the entirety of the world. There is no way to prevent it.
 
The only way the UK fights Iran 1 on 1 (instead of hidding behind the US), is if the UK strikes first.

In that case, Bush will let the UK armies take the full strenght of the Iranian military forces, rather than facing war with Iran, which would be an outright disaster for the occupation of Iraq instead of a limited one.
He will have to rely on Turkey for supplying the forces in Iraq, theoretically, the Turkish gov may force the US from leaving Iraq.
 
This is a refreshingly new take on AH, I'm looking forward to seeing how this pans out. I'd agree with others that UK armed forces were pretty stretched at the time so an outright invasion, without serious US support would be difficult to pull off.

Does this occur before or after the debacle with the RN sailors being detained by the Iranians?

Before that. That happened in Early 07. As I said, they'll be US support, and it isn't going to be an outright invasion.

UK vs Iran alone?

ASB as Iranian Deterrence is based on the ideal if anyone attacks them for any reason, they'll target every oil installation in the Persian Gulf and destroy them to ensure that the Oil does not flow and instantly deal a crushing economic defeat to the entirety of the world. There is no way to prevent it.

I don't entirely agree that attacking oil installations would be the first thing they'd. I posted a report a while ago of a wargame which involved an Israeli attack on the Iranian nuclear program, and the Iranians in that scenario were played aggressively, and didn't behave that way (although they did hit Saudi refineries, and that will certainly get a mention in this TL). And as I said, it wont be 100% alone, just mostly.

The only way the UK fights Iran 1 on 1 (instead of hidding behind the US), is if the UK strikes first.

Possibly. Without giving anything away, in this TL the Iranian position is that the UK are fabricating evidence against them and helping terrorist groups in Iran (they have said those things in OTL).

I'll probably post the next update over the weekend or on ~Monday. As I said, I've got the first 8 written already (I might change some things based on feedback though).
 

celt

Banned
Bear in mind that in 2006 we started to get heavily engaged in Helmend.16th Air Assault Brigade deployed in April and 3 Commando Brigade were penciled in as their replacments,and those two are the spearhead of the British army.

SF are overstretched between Afganistan, Baghdad and Basra and Counter-terriorism in the UK.

Basra really started to kick off towards the end of 2006,I could imagine in your scenario it would be even worse,and have drastic effects on the pullback from Basra palace in 2007 and the drawdown from forces in Iraq.
 
SF are overstretched between Afganistan, Baghdad and Basra and Counter-terriorism in the UK.

Basra really started to kick off towards the end of 2006,I could imagine in your scenario it would be even worse,and have drastic effects on the pullback from Basra palace in 2007 and the drawdown from forces in Iraq.

Certainly. I doubt the draw down would start in 2007 in this TL.
 
The Iranians would definitely consider the Americans as cobeligerents and open fire on them as well as neutral shipping in the Gulf.
 
I said I'd post the second up date today, and here you are:

2 - Funeral for a friend

Daughter of heaven, oh daughter of now / drifting away, and you don't make a sound...

Attempts were made to keep the funerals of all those killed, including Katherine Jenkins, as low key as possible. Largely this went to plan, although the media were accused by some of not focusing enough on the military casualties in their reporting. All the funerals were private, and the families involved were left alone. Afterwards it appeared for a few days as though the funerals would be the end of the matter, as much as that's possible. Things took a different turn though when the first indication was given to the House of commons that there might have been Iranian involvement. Foreign Secretary Jack Straw told MP's of the Russian (and therefore Iranian) missile connection during a statement made to the house on the 9th of January 2006. This information was greeted with shock among a number of MP's, and Mr. Straw was asked if there was any possibility of the attack originating in Iran:

The Foreign Secretary: Mr. Speaker, it is not clear at this time exactly how those responsible aquired their weapons, although based on previous incidents and findings it would not be a surprise. - Hansard, January 9th 2006

Within hours the Iranian government denied all knowledge of the attacks and demanded to see any evidence the British had. The following day The Independent published a photograph showing a document implying that Iran had been directly supplying Iraqi insurgent groups. What they did not publish, thanks to a D-Notice, was other, even more damning, evidence they had, including a photograph of a known Iranian agent meeting with a suspected insurgency leader[1]. This information was passed on to the government, who said they were aware of the connection, but that it shouldn't be made public. At least some Cabinet members were in faovur on an immediate air-strike campaign on Iran once they were aware of the links
between Iran and the Iraqi insurgency. However, others were strongly against any form of escalation. Eventually it was decided to use diplomatic pressure to begin with in order to avoid the impact escalation could have on oil prices and regional stability. Crucially however, it was also decided that planning should begin in case any military action were required.

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We could have gone to war there and then to be honest, but we decided it wasn't wise at that time. It might have helped in the long run though - Jack Straw in a TV interview in 2012.

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[1] I couldn't find an OTL parallel to this, although, as mentioned previously, Iran were being publicly accused of involvement fairly early on.
[2] The chapter title is, of course, a reference to the Welsh band of that name.
 
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