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I think Gloria Arroyo in the PH elections in 1998 running needs/requires a victorious Dubya George W Bush 96, I think Duterte would divide the voters of Erap in Favor of Gloria which means she wins in the 1998 elections as president..landslide..
Obviously there would be no follow up elections for Gloria Arroyo after this but this would also mean that Gloria Arroyo would have a more solid base than OTL...perhaps we would have Binay in 2004 in the Philippines..and Biden as successor of Dubya in America