Dutch puppet state; What if the Dutch government and Royal Family don`t go into exile in 1940?

Let`s say the Netherlands finds itself in Denmark's shoes.
Would there be a peace treaty since the nazis were at war with the Netherlands but not with Denmark?
What is the fate of the Dutch East Indies?
In a scenario where this leads to the United States remaining a non-belligerent, what is the outcome of the war:
1. Collapse of Germany and Japan ?
2. Negotiated peace ?
What does the timetable on these outcomes look like? c 1943/4 or late 40s early 50s
 

thaddeus

Donor
what if the Germans established a Dutch State counterpart to the Vichy French State, include the Dutch speaking areas of Belgium? guess the Germans calculated their putative ally Japan worth more than consideration of the French puppet regime, so they pressured the French to allow them into Indochina, which soured French-German collaboration.

or as @Carl Schwamberger said in another thread
The German French Armistice required the French not allow other nations into their colonies. In this case the Germans pressured the French into not resisting the Japanese occupation. I am guessing they thought it better the Japanese occupy them vs the British, as the Brits were busy doing elsewhere.

my reading on the subject the Japanese were concerned the Nazi regime would claim some authority over the occupied nations' colonies, but they "waved away" any interest. what if the Nazis decided French and Dutch regimes "in hand" worth more than potential ally Japan?
 
What is the fate of the Dutch East Indies?
Most likely the NSB will be put in charge of the puppet state in the Netherlands and the Dutch East Indies branch of the NSB will be in charge of the Dutch East Indies. There's a youtube video outlining the visit of the NSB Leader to the Dutch East Indies in 1935

In a scenario where this leads to the United States remaining a non-belligerent, what is the outcome of the war:
1. Collapse of Germany and Japan ?
2. Negotiated peace ?
what if the Nazis decided French and Dutch regimes "in hand" worth more than potential ally Japan?
I'd say Germany controlling the Dutch East Indies via the Dutch Puppet State is a nice leverage to have over Japan. They can offer Japan oil from the Dutch East Indies in exchange for Japan attacking the USSR from the east when it comes time for Barbarossa but this means no attack on Pearl Harbour.

If the US becomes a non-belligerent, what does the UK do? If it attacks the Dutch East Indies by getting its forces in Malaya and Singapore as well as Australia and New Zealand to chip in, it will get even more stretched out.
 
my reading on the subject the Japanese were concerned the Nazi regime would claim some authority over the occupied nations' colonies, but they "waved away" any interest.

The primary Japanese concern was claiming the Mekong Rice production, & then the Rubber production. There was also a dispute over shipments to the KMT territory via the Red River ports and transport route. The Japanese wanted the French to close this entirely.

what if the Nazis decided French and Dutch regimes "in hand" worth more than potential ally Japan?

There was some discussion of better access to those via a end of war peace treaty. I don't remember the details. As long as the Brits are still fighting access denied. As it was the nazis were gifting the Japanese someone else's property, which as it turned out was a useful distraction against the Brits and US.
 
Let`s say the Netherlands finds itself in Denmark's shoes.
Would there be a peace treaty since the nazis were at war with the Netherlands but not with Denmark?
What is the fate of the Dutch East Indies?
Denmark may not be the relevant example - as it was Hitler wanted to capture the Dutch Royal Family in part to end Dutch resistance. If the Para landing at the Hague goes better and the Germans manage to capture the Dutch Royal Family and the Gold Hoard things look more like a mix of the Belgian and Danish situation. In the former the King surrendered his Armed Forces while the Government fled to France later Britain while the latter both King and Government were trapped.
In contrast to the Belgian case the Dutch would surrender with both Queen and Government in case. The Germans might want to do a Denmark in the Netherlands as the first year of occupation was a mild one - a velvet Glove like in Denmark - threatening a Nazi regime headed by the NSB/National Socialist Movement like in Norway. Unles they find them as inept as the Danish Nazi's!
Denmark and Nazi-Germany was at war but there was created an illusion of a "peacefull" occupation as the Germans viewed such an advantage - don't know if the Auswärtiges Amt/German Foreign Office could pull off such one in the case of the Netherlands - though it could be a possible solution for the Dutch to, as in Denmark, keep the illusion of Dutch control of the Civil State. Also there might not be a Peace Treaty just an Armistige like in France. They would probably not be allowed continued existence of their Armed Forces as in case of Denmark but Civil institutions like Police, Airraid Warning Organization and such as in Denmark.

Dutch East Indies like the French Indochina would probably be given to have its Armed Forces controlled by Germany like French Indochina as per the Franco-German Armistige of June 1940 p.48 thus the Germans letting the Japanese take control when deemed - though depending on time might actually result in Dutch resistance as the Dutch Colony had a history of much self-governance.
 
Interesting scenario! Lets assume the operation is a total German success where they almost instantly capture the cabinet and the royal family. While Wilhelmina isn't one to capitulate, she isn't in charge. PM De Geer is and he was as defeatist as they come. Is the General Headquarter captured as well? In that case I can see the defense collapse almost immediately. If not it might continue for a day.

A few things to consider:
- This could very well mean that barely any RNLN units are able to move to England, and are instead captured by the Germans.
- The same with the army personnel that formed the Prinses Irene Brigade in England.
- The highest public servant of the Kingdom at this point is the Governor-General of the Dutch East Indies: Alidius Tjarda van Starkenborgh Stachouwer. He would probably follow the Queen if so ordered, would he follow the Cabinet? As it was, he barely did so OTL! Obviously the government-in-exile was going to follow the British lead but the GG feared that this would open the DEI up for a Japanese invasion so he kept a policy of neutrality towards Britain in Asia. I very much doubt that he would allow a FIC scenario to happen in the DEI ATL.

guess the Germans calculated their putative ally Japan worth more than consideration of the French puppet regime, so they pressured the French to allow them into Indochina, which soured French-German collaboration.
Thing is, with regards to the first Japanese invasion of Indochina in September 1940, there wasn't much in the way of German pressure. In fact, it was British and American refusal to back the FIC government and even stopping any reinforcements from arriving that made the French to capitulate to the Japanese in the first place.

As per the other thread:
- June 1940: FIC officials request help from the US but are turned down.
- September 1940: US blocks arms shipments to FIC.
- June 1940: GG Catroux signals to the UK that he is willing to go over to the British, if they support him against the Japanese. The Britons signal back that they have nothing to spare and are unwilling to offer any guarentees.
- Afterwards the Royal Navy enforced a worldwide shipping blockade which stopped an attempt to reinforce the FIC with 4 Senegalese battalions. The same happened with the carrier Bearn, which was planned to reinforce the FIC with 90 modern planes.
- The US government refused any more arms deliveries to the FIC.

Only after this period did the Germans use the terms of the Armistice to stop any French reinforcement of the FIC.
Most likely the NSB will be put in charge of the puppet state in the Netherlands and the Dutch East Indies branch of the NSB will be in charge of the Dutch East Indies. There's a youtube video outlining the visit of the NSB Leader to the Dutch East Indies in 1935
I seriously doubt this. While the NSB was certainly popular with the colonials, that popularity melted away in 1940. The Governor-General Tjarda van Starkenborgh Stachouwer was certainly no NSB-er and he was firmly in charge.
 
For a Vichy Netherlands, what would be interesting would be the role of these guys as they could form the basis of such a Vichy-style regime with their OTL ideology and attitude towards the occupation, with the NSB being the equivalent to the “ultra-collaborators” who criticized Vichy for being too moderate:
 

thaddeus

Donor
what if the Germans established a Dutch State counterpart to the Vichy French State, include the Dutch speaking areas of Belgium? guess the Germans calculated their putative ally Japan worth more than consideration of the French puppet regime, so they pressured the French to allow them into Indochina, which soured French-German collaboration.

my reading on the subject the Japanese were concerned the Nazi regime would claim some authority over the occupied nations' colonies, but they "waved away" any interest. what if the Nazis decided French and Dutch regimes "in hand" worth more than potential ally Japan?

I'd say Germany controlling the Dutch East Indies via the Dutch Puppet State is a nice leverage to have over Japan. They can offer Japan oil from the Dutch East Indies in exchange for Japan attacking the USSR from the east when it comes time for Barbarossa but this means no attack on Pearl Harbour.

If the US becomes a non-belligerent, what does the UK do? If it attacks the Dutch East Indies by getting its forces in Malaya and Singapore as well as Australia and New Zealand to chip in, it will get even more stretched out.

There was some discussion of better access to those via a end of war peace treaty. I don't remember the details. As long as the Brits are still fighting access denied. As it was the nazis were gifting the Japanese someone else's property, which as it turned out was a useful distraction against the Brits and US.

Thing is, with regards to the first Japanese invasion of Indochina in September 1940, there wasn't much in the way of German pressure. In fact, it was British and American refusal to back the FIC government and even stopping any reinforcements from arriving that made the French to capitulate to the Japanese in the first place.

this is, of course, wildly speculative. it seems the Germans would have had to insinuate themselves into Dutch affairs during the pre-war period for the DEI to even be a consideration?

IDK enough about the dynamic between France, Netherlands, KMT China, and Japan, whether China was viewed as relatively benign or as a threat like Japan, just a lesser one? (or a future one)

guessing the Dutch would shy away from submarine cooperation and would they have any need for German oil tankers? (which could be converted to carriers or seaplane tenders during wartime)

the other relationship is between Germany and the USSR, the Germans have access to the Pacific if they maintain that cooperation, through the Trans-Siberian rail also the Northern Sea route.
 
Let`s say the Netherlands finds itself in Denmark's shoes.
Would there be a peace treaty since the nazis were at war with the Netherlands but not with Denmark?
What is the fate of the Dutch East Indies?
In a scenario where this leads to the United States remaining a non-belligerent, what is the outcome of the war:
I genuinely think this might push a lot of people who were on the fence into outright collaboration. IOTL the fact the House of Orange went into exile badly damaged the credibility of the occupation authorities. A lot of people supported ‘soft collaboration’ in the form of the Netherlands Union party (which didn’t advocate armed resistance but stressed the importance of Dutch independence and loyalty to the House of Orange) as a sign of contempt for the Nazis and their goons in the Mussert movement. I think you could even see people who OTL resisted - Hendrikus Colijn for instance - opting to pragmatically collaborate.
 

thaddeus

Donor
this is, of course, wildly speculative. it seems the Germans would have had to insinuate themselves into Dutch affairs during the pre-war period for the DEI to even be a consideration?

IDK what the Dutch would consider on projects with the Nazi regime? they did have a mooted project for a cruiser based around the Scharnhorst. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Design_1047_battlecruiser (which seems a rather outsized project?)

the interesting (to me at least) subject would be some further collaboration between Germany-Netherlands on submarines, curious what @HJ Tulp who has a thread (not involving the Germans) https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...vice-during-world-war-2.549659/#post-24789530 views on the subject
What I want to explore in this alternative history, is what would have happened if the Royal Netherlands Navy had stuck to its submarine doctrine and used that to combat the IJN.

Germany's strange alliance with Japan created a predicament for the British, but also brought the US into the war, maybe said alliance could be eclipsed by naval collaboration with the Dutch and yes even the USSR (both nations had dealings with Germany historically)

or possibly a more realistic cooperation between Germany and Japan, if the Japanese avoid the DEI in exchange for continued oil sales?
 
People are forgetting that even without the Dutch government and royal family in exile they can still declare the DEI on the allies side. Same for Suriname and Antilles btw, who probably get seized by the British.

Remember that Indochina was handed over to the Japanese, not established as an axis ally to Germany simply because the Vichy Regime said so. The DEI have to be established as axis territory, they have to recognize the new Dutch government under the NSB. Best way odo this is to show up with force, but the DEI, like Indochina, is ver yfar away from the home territories. Try establishing authority from so far away.

For the Nazis the DEI is not interesting, except for ally Japan. So they probably let them keep trade open, avoiding Japan's neccesity to attack the pacific. Yet. Until the DEI decided to do something like going independent. Closest ones to them will come in and seize it. But would Japan risk that? Is their plan finalized, doable in the new scenario? They can pretend to be protecting teritories of allies and threathen with war over the DEI, turning things around.

A lot can happen.
 

Garrison

Donor
Problem is that one of the prime oil producing regions on Borneo isn't Dutch its British. Its entirely possible the British decide to take the DEI as a preventative measure, which might mean they put more resources into the Pacific as a whole, which would be bad news for the Japanese.
 
IDK what the Dutch would consider on projects with the Nazi regime? they did have a mooted project for a cruiser based around the Scharnhorst. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Design_1047_battlecruiser (which seems a rather outsized project?)

the interesting (to me at least) subject would be some further collaboration between Germany-Netherlands on submarines, curious what @HJ Tulp who has a thread (not involving the Germans) https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...vice-during-world-war-2.549659/#post-24789530 views on the subject


Germany's strange alliance with Japan created a predicament for the British, but also brought the US into the war, maybe said alliance could be eclipsed by naval collaboration with the Dutch and yes even the USSR (both nations had dealings with Germany historically)

or possibly a more realistic cooperation between Germany and Japan, if the Japanese avoid the DEI in exchange for continued oil sales?

Do I understand your train of thoughts correctly if I say you mean that the Netherlands cooperates with Germany before WWII? :) Short of a NSB winning the elections (which was never in the charts) that's impossible. The Dutch neutrality was firmly in place and supported by both the elite and the population. The military cooperation that existed was solely commercial and not political/diplomatic. Interestingly enough the development of the submarine in the Netherlands did have a strong link with Germany. The German government in secret financed several companies in the Netherlands that designed submarines, with the aim of using the lessons learned for their own navy if/when the Versailles Treaty was cancelled. This was in the Weimar period though!

Some thing I can see happen is that the lack of a government in exile means that the DEI will not follow the US and the UK in the oil embargo, hoping to avoid a confrontation with the Japanese. This could very well change if the Japanese push to aggressively for a FIC-like scenario though.
I genuinely think this might push a lot of people who were on the fence into outright collaboration. IOTL the fact the House of Orange went into exile badly damaged the credibility of the occupation authorities. A lot of people supported ‘soft collaboration’ in the form of the Netherlands Union party (which didn’t advocate armed resistance but stressed the importance of Dutch independence and loyalty to the House of Orange) as a sign of contempt for the Nazis and their goons in the Mussert movement. I think you could even see people who OTL resisted - Hendrikus Colijn for instance - opting to pragmatically collaborate.
I must say that I can really agree with this assessment. In the long run the popularity of Wilhelmina was enhanced by her escape and Radio Oranje. This was certainly not the case in the immediate aftermath though. A lot of people were outraged that the queen and her government had 'abandoned' the country. In this scenario this is not the case. There was a lot of soft collaboration going on, that only changed - somewhat - when it became clear that the war was going to quickly end in a German victory. Colijn is a good example of that, as he supported accommodation with the Germans in a pamphlet in July 1940 while condemning the government for leaving. Later on the Germans did arrest him because of his support for the resistance.
Problem is that one of the prime oil producing regions on Borneo isn't Dutch its British. Its entirely possible the British decide to take the DEI as a preventative measure, which might mean they put more resources into the Pacific as a whole, which would be bad news for the Japanese.
I can't see a British take over of the DEI to be honest. For several reasons:
1. The British don't have the military power in Asia to force the issue.
2. Taking over the DEI means that they alter the status quo in South East Asia. This risks war with Japan, which would be a huge problem for the UK and they tried to avoid at all costs OTL.

If the UK would guarantee the sovereignty and integrity of the DEI there is a big chance that it goes over to the Allies. Just like the FIC would have done OTL. However, the UK wasn't able to do so and that wouldn't change ATL.
 

Garrison

Donor
I can't see a British take over of the DEI to be honest. For several reasons:
1. The British don't have the military power in Asia to force the issue.
2. Taking over the DEI means that they alter the status quo in South East Asia. This risks war with Japan, which would be a huge problem for the UK and they tried to avoid at all costs OTL.
The DEI offers a hostile power the opportunity to blockade Singapore, an unacceptable threat to British strategic interest, war with the Japanese in 1940 is deeply unlikely as the Japanese are far from ready to launch a war and if they did that offers a way for Roosevelt to get the USA more deeply involved, the isolationists in Congress were far more willing to contemplate action against Japan. You are also assuming the Dutch in the DEI have the will and the numbers to resist. They are a long way from Europe and when they see what happens in Indochina they may well be only to willing to be 'invaded'.
 
The DEI offers a hostile power the opportunity to blockade Singapore
Totally agreed!
an unacceptable threat to British strategic interest
We are in total agreement again. However, the British government didn't agree. Time and time again the DEI government signaled that it was very willing to change it's status from neutral to allied, and time and time against the British government refused to guarantee the territorial integrity of the colony. Those are facts.
war with the Japanese in 1940 is deeply unlikely as the Japanese are far from ready to launch a war
And yet the admiralty considered war with Japan to be a real threat. That's why the British government closed the Burma Road and that's why they refused to make it possible for the FIC to come over to the Allied side.
You are also assuming the Dutch in the DEI have the will and the numbers to resist.
Against what forces the United Kingdom could muster in South East Asia in 1940? The KNIL would certainly stand a chance.
They are a long way from Europe and when they see what happens in Indochina they may well be only to willing to be 'invaded'.
They were willing to be 'invaded'. Except the British refused to do so.
 

Garrison

Donor
Totally agreed!

We are in total agreement again. However, the British government didn't agree. Time and time again the DEI government signaled that it was very willing to change it's status from neutral to allied, and time and time against the British government refused to guarantee the territorial integrity of the colony. Those are facts.

And yet the admiralty considered war with Japan to be a real threat. That's why the British government closed the Burma Road and that's why they refused to make it possible for the FIC to come over to the Allied side.

Against what forces the United Kingdom could muster in South East Asia in 1940? The KNIL would certainly stand a chance.

They were willing to be 'invaded'. Except the British refused to do so.
Yes but you have completely changed the position of the Dutch from government in exile to German puppet regime and it is the hallmark of poor TLs when one side radically changes its actions and the other is expected to continue precisely as per OTL. The OP has already proposed two incredibly unlikely outcomes to this scenario, insisting the British would just continue as per OTL just makes it absurd.
 

thaddeus

Donor
the interesting (to me at least) subject would be some further collaboration between Germany-Netherlands on submarines

Germany's strange alliance with Japan created a predicament for the British, but also brought the US into the war, maybe said alliance could be eclipsed by naval collaboration with the Dutch and yes even the USSR (both nations had dealings with Germany historically)

or possibly a more realistic cooperation between Germany and Japan, if the Japanese avoid the DEI in exchange for continued oil sales?

Do I understand your train of thoughts correctly if I say you mean that the Netherlands cooperates with Germany before WWII? Short of a NSB winning the elections (which was never in the charts) that's impossible. The Dutch neutrality was firmly in place and supported by both the elite and the population. The military cooperation that existed was solely commercial and not political/diplomatic. Interestingly enough the development of the submarine in the Netherlands did have a strong link with Germany. The German government in secret financed several companies in the Netherlands that designed submarines, with the aim of using the lessons learned for their own navy if/when the Versailles Treaty was cancelled. This was in the Weimar period though!

Some thing I can see happen is that the lack of a government in exile means that the DEI will not follow the US and the UK in the oil embargo, hoping to avoid a confrontation with the Japanese. This could very well change if the Japanese push to aggressively for a FIC-like scenario though.

I was speculating on two things, to play along with the OP I understand the Dutch were committed neutrals, first that the German regime would have some interest in the DEI, and second some way to influence the situation there (during wartime.)

there was the lucrative military cooperation with China that did not involve the KMT joining any alliance? maybe a shipbuilding venture for the Dutch could occur earlier than the still born battlecruiser project? the German DDs were problematic historically but have always thought they could have been recast as fast minelayers (similar to the British Abdiel-class), just IMO ideal complement for the submarines defense of DEI.

I've alluded to some kind of tanker deal(s) prior, the Dutch (IIRC) had many more tankers during the 1930's historically but my understanding that business was in distress during the depression, maybe super fast German tankers (use) could have been bartered for oil?
 
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