So, New Amsterdam fell because few people were Dutch. What if New Amsterdam falls by having a revolution against the Dutch and becoming a separate country? I think that would be a very plausible result, and fascinating. Challenging for the settlers to overcome their differences, but they'll have advantages at least of sharing a northern European, mostly protestant heritage, and having room to expand. T No matter how you slice it, this would lead to a very different modern America. The worst case (meaning most OTL-like) scenario would be if this new country gets conquered by force by the British, and a century later this area and the other British colonies fight another war for independence, and eventually most of the area in the country will speak English. And even if that happens, we'll have a country with a very different set of legal and cultural traditions.