First of all, how could the Dutch keep their North American, Atlantic coast colonies?
Well, during the second Anglo-Dutch war, the English did offer to return the New Netherlands if the Dutch returned Surinam. So if the Dutch accept this offer, they would keep the new Netherlands. Also during the third Anglo-Dutch war the Dutch managed to recapture the New Netherlands. So I see a couple of ways. Also New Amsterdam asked a couple of times to become part of the Netherlands. Maybe if that would have happened the Dutch wouldn't have given it away so easily.
Second of all, how will this affect politics in colonial North America and Europe?
The English colonies will be split in two. I assume that with a Dutch colony there will be less of an incentive to capture all the French colonies, so maybe we see a French Quebec.
Could we see a Dutch version of the USA? Could the Dutch colonies expand further westward into the Ohio River Valley? Will this detract any from Dutch interest in the East Indies? If so, who steps into the power void?
I doubt we will see a Dutch USA. If the Netherlands kept the New Netherlands, it will probably end up as part of the Netherlands, as Dutch as Gelderland or Friesland. Because of its decentralised government it is far easier for the Dutch than for the English. It will probably expend, but not too much, it realy depends on the colonists the Dutch manage to attrack. The Dutch population on its own is too small, but if they manage to convince protestant Germans, Scandinavians, Hugenots, jews, etc (and assimilate English that settle it) to join, I think it might grow into a reasonably big settlement. I doubt it would distract them from the East Indies. Those are two entirely different colonies, with entirely different motives to go there. The East Indies were never a settlement colony, but a place to make lots and lots of money (and succesfully so). It might decrease the people willing to settle in South Africa though.