Dutch Antwerp

What if the Netherlands in the last years of the Dutch revolt managed to capture Antwerp. What would be the consequences of this in the Netherlands? Antwerp was the main target at that point, but theDutch did not manage to capture it from the Spanish. I think with a couple of minor butterflies in the last years of the war, the Dutch would be able to capture it. Antwerp was one of the major cities in Brabant and a very important port. It could become a major rival to Amsterdam (the most important reason why Holland was never that interested in capturing it after the revolt). Would Antwerp still become a major port in this scenario, even though the Netherlands would not control a large part of the Schelde? Would this actualy cause the Dutch to try to gain more area near Antwerp in later wars to secure this city, since it would be dangerously close to the border. Would Antwerp being part of State Brabant cause it to become one of the provinces, instead of a generality land. That had always been the main argument after all, Breda, Den Bosch and Bergen op Zoom were too minor for province status. Or would the fact that Brabant would be catholic be enough reason for it to remain a generality land? Or would Antwerp be an important enough harbor for it to change status (by attracting several protestant merchants who set up shop in Antwerp).

Or would Antwerp be simply be turned into a major fortress to stop the Spanish (and later French).

What would the results be for the Southern Netherlands lacking Antwerp. If Antwerp is as Dutch as Den Bosch or Nijmegen, noone would consider it part of the Southern Netherlands. Would it still be considered a dagger on the throat of England (or what was the expression again) or are Ostend and Bruges dagger enough?

BTW I want it to make it clear for everyone, I am not interested in a Dutch Antwerp in any other way. So don't come up with a scenario in which Antwerp never fall to the Spanish during the Dutch revolt, or the Netherlands capturing Antwerp during the War of Spanish succession (or Antwerp remaining Dutch after the Belgian revolt or what ever POD you can imagine). I am interested in the changest that would happen of Antwerp were captured during the last years of the Eighty year war.
 
Personaly I thought this would have been an interesting subject. Antwerp is an important city and it turning Dutch would cause some interesting changes in Dutch politics or in the status of the southern Netherlands. Maybe it is a too specific question to ask on a board that hass only limited people with knowledge (or interest) in Dutch history.
 
Antwerp will still start at a tremendous disadvantage compared tot he Hollandic cities. Depending on the exact POD you might have a nearby port like Oostende also being Dutch, but that's about it. Amsterdam has all of Holland including the connection to the Rhine.

However, if it's handled halfway decently (a new province of Brabant, capital Antwerp, with a thin sheen of protestantism to become palatable) you create the mechanisms for the Netherlands to actually rule the rest of the Habsburg Netherlands if they ever conquered it. Of course in practice the Netherlands at various times did establish military dominance but never cared to annex the region; in this case, maybe in small bits and pieces, the Netherlands will be interested and capable of taking more of the region.

Of course that has big knock-on effects elsewhere; maybe the French get more of the Netherlands too with the taboo on conquering the Habsburg Netherlands smaller; maybe the Netherlands also seriously integrate areas like Lingen, Emden, Kleve. If you push it far enough, the Netherlands might eventually get somewhat expansionist in Europe, conquering the Rhenish parts fo Germany down to Cologne. That would be interesting, at least :)
 
I dont think a Antwerp would rival Amsterdam if the Dutch capture it late in the revolt (1630-40's). All trade left after 1585 when Antwerp fell to the Spanish, and those simply wont return since Amsterdam developed a big trade infrastructure in those 50 years. The Spanish could also start to block the harbour of Antwerp if they still control Oostende and Brugge. And those two are easy to control and defend if you own Gent. So the Dutch would need to conquer those lands as well if they want a firm and safe control of Antwerp. Without a safe control, merchants will never invest in Antwerp since they could easily loose their investment if the Spanish decide to march an army north from Brussels. Holland on the other hands remains safe behind the rivers. Antwerp could become a viable port, but would never rival Amsterdam. I think Dutch industrial development like OTL could be focused on Antwerp instead of Rotterdam, but after it becomes clear that a port so far inland doesnt work Oostende would recieve a major boost and become a massive harbour, especially if a canal to the Rhine is built.
 
I agree that Antwerp will probably not rival Amsterdam at first, or at least during the 17th and 18th century. That said Antwerp is an excellent location for a port and I expect the Dutch to use it, even if on a lesser scale than Amsterdam. Actualy, it might even safe the ports of Zeeland. Personaly I think that if Antwerps importance slowly grows they will try to secure it by annexing some northern parts of Flanders and Brabant to fortify it, basicly creating a ring of fortified cities around Antwerp. OTL the Dutch did not care for expansion suth, they might do now. I don't see them trying to annex parts of north western Germany, like Avernite suggested though. Why would they? They have no claim for it and no use for it. I am not so sure the Spanish can blocade Antwerp using Ostend and Buges. The Dutch control both sides of the estuary (and they did blocade Antwerp OTL. The Spanish can't do that. They can only use Ostend (Bruge couldn't be used as a seaport after the middle ages I believe), which is not as good a spot for a port, like Antwerp. They have to sent ships to the Scheld Estuary, where the admirality of Zeeland is, which could probably chase them away. I think Antwerp is pretty safe from the sea. You are right that a land army could relatively easily take Antwerp, which is why I suggest the fortified cities., which will probably the major war goal for the Dutch in the next coule of wars over the Southern Netherlands. Hmm, it could be interesting if the Dutch and the French actualy do manage to make that deal they negotiated over OTL after the Dutch revolt ended (basicly splitting up the Southern Netherlands in a Dutch and a French part, ith roughly everything south of Ostend/Gent/Mechelen French and the north Dutch, although with Antwerp already Dutch the Dutch might get a bit more).
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Since Antwerp is located on a better spot for a port than Amsterdam though, so I expect if we assume a roughly similar development of the Netherlands and Europe it mght indeed take Rotterdam's spot as the main Dutch harbour in the 20th century. I dont think Ostend can compete with it, no matter who ends up with Ostend. Antwerp is the major port in Belgium after all, not Ostend.
 
Uhm, well, actually Lingen was held by the Netherlands, and Emden/Kleve had Dutch garrisons.

Sure the rest of the Rhineland is a stretch, but still.


And I don't think Antwerp's going to rival Rotterdam in the long run. Both ports will need major development in the 1800's of course, but Rotterdam still is a whole lot closer to the Rhine. I can hardly think of a better place for a harbour in the Netherlands than 'right at the mouth of the Rhine'.
 
Uhm, well, actually Lingen was held by the Netherlands, and Emden/Kleve had Dutch garrisons.

Sure the rest of the Rhineland is a stretch, but still.


And I don't think Antwerp's going to rival Rotterdam in the long run. Both ports will need major development in the 1800's of course, but Rotterdam still is a whole lot closer to the Rhine. I can hardly think of a better place for a harbour in the Netherlands than 'right at the mouth of the Rhine'.

Lingen was sort of Dutch. It was held by the stadholder as a personal fieve and wasn't actualy part of the Republic and when Willem III died childless, it ended up Prussian. To be fair, we could butterfly away Willem III childlessness or even Willem II's death (through the Franco-Dutch deal I suggested for example), so Lingen remains attached to the Netherlands and finaly ending up actualy Dutch after a while. Cleves and Emden, I doubt it. Having a garrison doesn't make something Dutch. After all the barrier cities never ending up either. To be fair, with butterflies they could end up Dutch, I guess. I don't consider it terribly likely and see no connection to the POD.
 
Lingen was sort of Dutch. It was held by the stadholder as a personal fieve and wasn't actualy part of the Republic and when Willem III died childless, it ended up Prussian. To be fair, we could butterfly away Willem III childlessness or even Willem II's death (through the Franco-Dutch deal I suggested for example), so Lingen remains attached to the Netherlands and finaly ending up actualy Dutch after a while. Cleves and Emden, I doubt it. Having a garrison doesn't make something Dutch. After all the barrier cities never ending up either. To be fair, with butterflies they could end up Dutch, I guess. I don't consider it terribly likely and see no connection to the POD.
Well, my connection is that the Republic was strongly non-expansionist in Europe, to the point of the whole barrier fortresses system; I can't imagine France militarily occupying a place and never getting around to annexing it (they could take a few decades, depending on the politics).

By giving European expansion, and Republic expansion, a boost by allowing the creation of a new state (Brabant) in the republic, you're giving a way for how you could integrate new areas - and giving a last-minute boost to that being a good idea. Besides that, capturing Antwerp has knock-on effects. What do the Dutch afterwards instead of attacking Antwerp again? Attack more of the Spanish Netherlands? Support the German protestants? Either is likely to result in expansion of Dutch control if the Dutch have gathered the superiority necessary to take Antwerp - and with the ability to expand, maybe that control can be turned into annexation (almost certain if inside the Spanish Netherlands).
 
Well, my connection is that the Republic was strongly non-expansionist in Europe, to the point of the whole barrier fortresses system; I can't imagine France militarily occupying a place and never getting around to annexing it (they could take a few decades, depending on the politics).

True. In my opnion it had a couple of reasons. For example, they simply not cared that much about expansion. The Dutch republic was a merchant country and they knew that wealth lied in the colonies and not in European expansion. Another reason was that after the eighty year war, they didn't go to war with the powers that controled the southern Netherlands. Spain more or less turned into an ally a couple of years after the end of the war and you generaly don't annex parts of your allies. Also they were screwed over by the British as ally (Britain was a pretty bad ally).
By giving European expansion, and Republic expansion, a boost by allowing the creation of a new state (Brabant) in the republic, you're giving a way for how you could integrate new areas - and giving a last-minute boost to that being a good idea. Besides that, capturing Antwerp has knock-on effects. What do the Dutch afterwards instead of attacking Antwerp again? Attack more of the Spanish Netherlands? Support the German protestants? Either is likely to result in expansion of Dutch control if the Dutch have gathered the superiority necessary to take Antwerp - and with the ability to expand, maybe that control can be turned into annexation (almost certain if inside the Spanish Netherlands).
I don't think Antwerp was a major target after the Dutch revolt. They fought in the Southern Netherlands, but not with the southern Netherlands. I don't think it needs to focus on something else, since there never was a big focus on capturing Antwerp Partly because the merchants and regents in Amsterdam feared Antwerp, even a Dutch Antwerp. A (con)federation can be weird that way, focusing more on what is good for the regions than what is good for the country. Another major reason to avoid expansion for the Dutch Republic. Holland did not want to lose its influence. Which BTW is a major strike against Brabant turning into a 8th province (and a reason why Drenthe never became a province or why East-Frisia was never annexed).

With Antwerp turning into an important city (even if it is no match for Amsterdam), I could see the Dutch Republic suddenly wanting to protect it and they would have a need for expanding the area around Antwerp. But at least there still was some kind of claim for Antwerp (or the southern Netherlands in general). They used to be Dutch after all. Hell they were even still called the Netherlands. As much as I would like to see a Netherlands expanding east and securing its eastern border, you realy need something big to change it. Capturing Antwerp alone is not going to do it. You need a fundamental change. A surviving Willem II for example or a continued line of strong stadholders who can keep the regents under control and can focus on the Netherlands as a whole instead of the province or even city. To be fair, a stadholder wouldn't do it because of their love for the Netherlands or the Dutch people. No they would do it to increase their own power. And maybe lessen the power of their rivals, like lessing the influence of Holland, thus creating more provinces, appointed representatives in those provinces that are in his pockets.
 
Maybe willem 2 could capture Antwerp and use it to get crowned king this time around.
Since he was in favour of going on with the war he might go after the other southern cities too.
 
Maybe willem 2 could capture Antwerp and use it to get crowned king this time around.

How? I see no reason for Willem II to become king if Antwerp is captured.
Since he was in favour of going on with the war he might go after the other southern cities too.
As I said, Willem II wanted to go to war together with France to divide the Southern Netherlands. I could see it happening, especialy if the Dutch (or Willem II) decide to strengthen Antwerp's defences and want some other fortified cities surrounding it and Willem II could use a Dutch Brabant (and Flanders) to try to limit the power of Holland in the Estate General.
 
What if the Netherlands in the last years of the Dutch revolt managed to capture Antwerp. What would be the consequences of this in the Netherlands? Antwerp was the main target at that point, but theDutch did not manage to capture it from the Spanish. I think with a couple of minor butterflies in the last years of the war, the Dutch would be able to capture it. Antwerp was one of the major cities in Brabant and a very important port. It could become a major rival to Amsterdam (the most important reason why Holland was never that interested in capturing it after the revolt). Would Antwerp still become a major port in this scenario, even though the Netherlands would not control a large part of the Schelde? Would this actualy cause the Dutch to try to gain more area near Antwerp in later wars to secure this city, since it would be dangerously close to the border. Would Antwerp being part of State Brabant cause it to become one of the provinces, instead of a generality land. That had always been the main argument after all, Breda, Den Bosch and Bergen op Zoom were too minor for province status. Or would the fact that Brabant would be catholic be enough reason for it to remain a generality land? Or would Antwerp be an important enough harbor for it to change status (by attracting several protestant merchants who set up shop in Antwerp).

Or would Antwerp be simply be turned into a major fortress to stop the Spanish (and later French).

What would the results be for the Southern Netherlands lacking Antwerp. If Antwerp is as Dutch as Den Bosch or Nijmegen, noone would consider it part of the Southern Netherlands. Would it still be considered a dagger on the throat of England (or what was the expression again) or are Ostend and Bruges dagger enough?

BTW I want it to make it clear for everyone, I am not interested in a Dutch Antwerp in any other way. So don't come up with a scenario in which Antwerp never fall to the Spanish during the Dutch revolt, or the Netherlands capturing Antwerp during the War of Spanish succession (or Antwerp remaining Dutch after the Belgian revolt or what ever POD you can imagine). I am interested in the changest that would happen of Antwerp were captured during the last years of the Eighty year war.

Most plausible event for the Northern Netherlands to re-take Antwerp is no doubt the Battle of Kallo 20 June 1638. Stadholder Prince Frederick Hendrik and William of Nassau advanced with the State Army of around 20000 men towards Antwerp with the intention to besiege the city. Cardinal-infant Ferdinand reacted very swift by concentrating as much as troops of the Army of Flanders, available to counter the advance.
The Dutch troops were split, to both sides of the Scheld river and the part commanded by William of Nassau was after initial success, after repeating frontal attacks rooted and destroyed.
Let assume due to a last minute reinforcement of William Nassau troops the result is reversed and the Army of Flanders suffer a strategic defeat. Antwerp is taken very short after the battle.

Immediate effects:
Prestige of Stadholder Frederick Hendrik reach stellar hights.
Increase of his influence in Dutch politics regarding future campaigns
Increase of influence of the war party in the Dutch Republic, meaning more easier funding of the State army.
French do possible better resulting in deeper advance in the Spanish Netherlands.

Mid term effects:
Territorial increase in the South East and immediate surrounding s of Antwerp and more territorial gain of the Dutch in Brabant, but not dramatic much since territory and cities will change hands more than once as constant happened during this conflict.

Long term effects:
Dutch republic is slightly larger with the border with the Spanish Netherlands more South, even with relevant important cities as Bruges and Genth and Venlo, Roermond and complete Upper Gelre.
Antwerp will be part of Dutch Brabant and due to this Brabant will have, as full recognized State, representation in the Dutch State General. In OTL it was Holland who blocked this and Brabant remains a Generality land, which means the citizens were taxed but had no representation.
Despite that Antwerp was economically completely eclipsed by the cities of Holland (started even before her fall in 1584 regarding the major Baltic trade) It will slowly recover during the course of the 17th century.
Brabant and Antwerp will give a counter balance in the State General, if supported by the other Provinces against Holland
Resulting in a policy which is less focused on the interested of Holland alone, and there for might have also a better focus on their land forces and defending of their borders. In OTL nearly all the Provinces acted as a buffer for Holland, and the rulers in Holland did not care much if the other provinces were raided or suffered the burden of invading army mobs like the one of Prince Bishop of Munster, as long as this invaders were stopped before reaching Holland.
New capital for trading companies, like the VOC, WIC, Mediterranean and possible the Baltic, how ever the last was in firm hands of Amsterdam.

For info; the trade on the Baltic and North Sea were called the ''mother trade'' which in volume and value far eclipsed any other trade, followed by the trade on the Mediterranean. The trade and value generated on Asia by the VOC or the Atlantic by the WIC was only the cherry on the pie. The activities of the VOC and WIC looked very exotic and adventures but was a small portion of the wealth generated by the Dutch in the 17th century
 
I like your idea for the POD. I was thinking a bit later, but that would work. I doubt though that it would mean that cities like Bruges or Ghent would end up Dutch. I could see a somewhat larger Dutch area, but probably not major cities like that. It cost the Dutch a lot of effort in the last days of the Dutch revolt to conquer the cities they did. I thibk that places like Zandvliet, Damme and (Belgian) Middelburg would be more likely. Three places that I took from the Belgian fortified towns page from wikipedia that lie very close to the Dutch border around Antwerp and Dutch Flanders. The Netherlands has to capture them before going for the rest of the Southern Netherlands, like Bruges or Ghent.

Antwerp will be part of Dutch Brabant, but I don't think it will become a province. After looking into it it seems like the Dutch provinces, especialy Holland, did not like to add new provinces. The protestants in Brabant tried to become a province, just like Drenthe and also East-Frisia was proposed as a new Dutch province at one time, but it was always refused by the estate General. The Dutch provinces did not like the competition. You need some outside influence and I don't think Antwerp is enough. I believe Willem II is the answer. Let him win the power struggle in the days of the early republic, decide to actualy delude to power of the provinces in the estate General by adding new provinces like Drenthe and Brabant (who obviously support him, thus increasing his influence in the estate general). Also let him create a treaty with France to divide the southern Netherlands and you can get Bruges and Ghent (and Ostend, maybe even Nieuwpoort, but that is probably too far south) intothe Netherlands and create a possibility for a 10th province of Flanders (assuming East-Frisia or Lingen did not become provinces). That would create a nice counterbalance to Holland, something the Dutch Republic needed. Mind you, this is not the result of a Dutch Antwerp, but a possible butterfly. Not a terribly unlikely one, but far from a certainty. It is perfectly possible to get a Dutch republic that is very similar to OTL, but including Antwerp
 
At the time of Dutch independence Zeeland was one of the richest Dutch provinces. Over the next few centuries it was reduced to irrelevance. The reason this happened was because Zeeland was a important transport hub, but as the Rhine trade collapsed with the 30YW and the trade with Spanish Netherlands also collapsed with it being in another state. In the same manner Antwerp will also fall in importance, as it grows into a border city.
 
Since Antwerp is located on a better spot for a port than Amsterdam though, so I expect if we assume a roughly similar development of the Netherlands and Europe it mght indeed take Rotterdam's spot as the main Dutch harbour in the 20th century. I dont think Ostend can compete with it, no matter who ends up with Ostend. Antwerp is the major port in Belgium after all, not Ostend.

Is there any scenario or POD where a more Waloon-dominated ATL Belgium (or slightly enlarged Wallonia) ends up gaining Dunkirk?
 
Is there any scenario or POD where a more Waloon-dominated ATL Belgium (or slightly enlarged Wallonia) ends up gaining Dunkirk?
Kind of, sort of, I guess. First you need to avoid Dunkirk becoming French. This should be possible, I think. It had been British for a while, but sold to France. I could easily see it ending up Spanish and later part of Belgium.

If you want a Walloon dominated Belgium (I assume population wise), I think your best possibility is the Netherlands gaining some important parts of the Southern Netherlands. So let the Netherlands gain the northern past of Flanders, at least the important towns of Antwerp, Bruges, Ostend, Mechelen and Gent. This should be possible, but you need a different 17th century and probably a slightly different Netherlands. The hard part is the Netherlands gaining that much, while France not gaining Dunkirk. I think a POD during the Dutch revolt ould work. Spain is distracted or weakened somehow at a crucial point, lets say during 1598 and a couple of years later. In the 10 years before the Dutch managed to turn the revolt from almost lost to effectively won, but the Dutch success stagnated from 1598. Lets say the Spanish get into another foolish war and cannot focus enough in the Nehterlands. The Dutch manage to continue their succes for a couple more years. The end result is a larger Netherlands that includes the previous mentioned cities. Dunkirk remains part of the Southern Netherlands. Lets say the rest of European history remains roughly the same (extremely unlikely, but still). After Belgium becomes independent it lacks some major Flemish towns, this would shift the population balance towards the Walloons. Dunkirk is still part of the Southern Netherlands and probablythe major port of Belgium.
 
At the Peace of Westphalia, the border between the Dutch Republic will be more or less, from Ostend, Damme ( or Brugge) St Nicolas, Heerentals ending with Bishopric of Liege and Abdis of Torn and a patch work of territories', enclaves which will be Overmaas. Most likely complete Upper Gelre will be in Dutch hands at the time of the peace. Genth might be a bridge too far or not.
Antwerp is, despite her decline still an important city with a population much larger than most cities in Holland and Zeeland. There for it cannot be regarded as a border city with no representation. If Antwerp will be no part of a Dutch- North Brabant province then it will be the capital of a Dutch- North Flanders province. The combined territories in Flanders and Brabant will be too large and too influential to be ignored and will end up as Provinces of the Dutch Republic with representation in the State General.
This will callange the power of Holland and Amsterdam. Even Holland and Amsterdam will still be by far the most power full part of the Dutch Republic her influence and direction of government will be challenged constantly. This might result in different foreign policies and attitude towards the State Army by the Dutch Republic.
Dutch Flander will now compromise at least one large city and may be several minor cities. In OTL Dutch Flanders was nothing more a strip of land with very minor cities and the purpose of this territory was only to control the shore of the river Scheld.
A capture of Ostend will be again a major boost of prestige for the Stadholder since this city was captured by the Habsburgers after the longest and costliest siege of North west Europe some decades ago.
France will do as well better, and might end with a partial border with the Dutch Republic, which again will influence policies of both countries in matters which both are affected. Spanish Netherlands will end up a bit smaller as we know it.
 
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I wouldn't underestimate the economic position of a Dutch Antwerp. Antwerp as part of the Dutch Republic would, presumably, also benefit from no longer having the Scheldt river closed off as much as it was. This is part-of why during the minority of Maurice of Orange the States weren't that fond of retaking Antwerp, in addition to their general lack of war sentiment. A Dutch Antwerp would, presumably, economically dominate its non-Dutch Brabantian hinterland, probably more so than it would detract from the cities of Holland and Zeeland.
 
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