Durnovo Memorandum- earlier and more influential?

Depends. If it led to a full scale alliance between Russia and Germany, then Austria would almost certainly join the Entente. World War I would still be shorter than OTL and there would be a German victory, but most likely another war would have occured between Germany and Russia in the 1920s/30s....
 

archaeogeek

Banned
Depends. If it led to a full scale alliance between Russia and Germany, then Austria would almost certainly join the Entente. World War I would still be shorter than OTL and there would be a German victory, but most likely another war would have occured between Germany and Russia in the 1920s/30s....

I don't see how a german victory is granted. Russia needed large french investments in Poland's infrastructure to even perform like it did, I'm not sure the Germans would be willing to prop them up. Italy's army is still led by a sadistic moron who will now have to cover two land fronts, with no direct border with the country propping it up and an impossible naval situation.

And that's assuming the Ottomans don't join the Entente.
 

abc123

Banned
Depends. If it led to a full scale alliance between Russia and Germany, then Austria would almost certainly join the Entente. World War I would still be shorter than OTL and there would be a German victory, but most likely another war would have occured between Germany and Russia in the 1920s/30s....

Yes, depends. But, what if it leads to defensive alliance with France, but no Anglo- Russian Entente?

Or maybe Germany strongholds the A-H to accept that they have no further interests in Balkans except Bosnia- Herzegovina and Russia strongholds the Sebia into accepting of not-meddling into Bosnia-Herzegovina and A-H?
 

abc123

Banned
I don't see how a german victory is granted. Russia needed large french investments in Poland's infrastructure to even perform like it did, I'm not sure the Germans would be willing to prop them up. Italy's army is still led by a sadistic moron who will now have to cover two land fronts, with no direct border with the country propping it up and an impossible naval situation.

And that's assuming the Ottomans don't join the Entente.

Ottomans in TTL will most surely GO to the Entente, some sort of Crimmean War situation will be repeated.
Italy will also most probably be on Entente side, because if they support Germany, they will get nothing if A-H is with Entente, and if not IMHO they will stay neutral because they have no connection with Germany and would have to make a 2-fronts war.
 
Austria and Ottomans probably go Entente, Italy stays neutral/joins Entente last moment. It's pretty suicidal for them to join Russia/Germany, though if they did, they DO buy the CP's time.

Germany doesn't have the cash to finance Russia's railroads, but Austria is in trouble either way. However, Germany itself is in trouble as its railroads and facilities cannot make use of Russian forces very well in the West.

The Ottomans...I don't know. They will probably muddle around in the Caucasus as OTL, and with the Caucasus Army not gutted repeatedly by redeployment West, it's hard to see it as anything other than a Russian victory.

What happens in the Balkans? Whither Bulgaria and Romania?

There are TLs on the subject, agreed. The only thing I'd like to see from all that is Russian Navy joining the HSF, and seeing how they match up vs. Britain.
 
Depends. If it led to a full scale alliance between Russia and Germany, then Austria would almost certainly join the Entente. World War I would still be shorter than OTL and there would be a German victory, but most likely another war would have occured between Germany and Russia in the 1920s/30s....

Austria joining the Entente butterflies away World War I. Germany was so dedicated to the Austrian cause because Kaiser Wilhelm was one of the few European leaders who actually liked Franz Ferdinand.
 

archaeogeek

Banned
Austria and Ottomans probably go Entente, Italy stays neutral/joins Entente last moment. It's pretty suicidal for them to join Russia/Germany, though if they did, they DO buy the CP's time.

Germany doesn't have the cash to finance Russia's railroads, but Austria is in trouble either way. However, Germany itself is in trouble as its railroads and facilities cannot make use of Russian forces very well in the West.

The Ottomans...I don't know. They will probably muddle around in the Caucasus as OTL, and with the Caucasus Army not gutted repeatedly by redeployment West, it's hard to see it as anything other than a Russian victory.

What happens in the Balkans? Whither Bulgaria and Romania?

There are TLs on the subject, agreed. The only thing I'd like to see from all that is Russian Navy joining the HSF, and seeing how they match up vs. Britain.

Both Bulgaria and Romania disliked Russia tremendously and would probably go entente. Albania was a virtual Austrian puppet, and Greece a bit of a wildcard but at the time largely in Britain and France's pockets.
 
Both Bulgaria and Romania disliked Russia tremendously and would probably go entente. Albania was a virtual Austrian puppet, and Greece a bit of a wildcard but at the time largely in Britain and France's pockets.

No they did not?

Bulgaria went CP because of rivalry with Serbia over Nis and such, and also because of its German king. It also never actually fought the Russians. Presumably the circumstances are quite different here.

I almost feel as if the ghost of AHP is hanging around making the Balkans even more emotionally charged than they were. He kept on repeating that line, I never found it very convincing.

You could make the argument that Bulgaria would fear the Ottomans and thus go Entente or stay neutral, but Romania has a lot to gain, opportunistically speaking, for example, and has a lot more to fear from Russia on its borders than Bulgaria and even Austria, especially an Austria open to a 3.5-pronged beatdown.


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But overall Wendell is right. With no AH-Germany alliance, there's no WW1.
 
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abc123

Banned
But overall Wendell is right. With no AH-Germany alliance, there's no WW1.


I agree.

What I would love to make is:

TL where Dreikaiserbund is preserved, and where A-H, Germany and Russia makes Triple Alliance, and France, UK, Japan and Itala ( later USA too ) make Entente.

Reason for beginning of war: Russian attack on Persia ( attempt of returning russian candidate for Shah on throne ).

HSF and Imperial Navy against RN.
Russian Expeditionary Army with German Army attacking in France.


But, I agree, with this alliance composition, there would never be a world war.
 
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