Dunkirk

[thaddeus]

If one subscribes to the notion that a hard German push with no Halt Order would have further weakened German armored forces, it might actually weaken Fall Rot enough that the Weygand line holds enough for the reinforcements and equipment anticipated in June/July to arrive. Risking a considerably prolonged campaign in France in the hopes of capturing more of the encircled forces at Dunkirk may not be worthwhile.

It is always assumed that if the Germans had captured Dunkirk the surrounded Britih would have surrendered. Was there a possibility they could could have broken through the German ring and rejoned the main French army to the south?

If the German command had its eyes on the next step in fighting France, it would make sense to treat Dunkirk as a sideshow. Nobody (British/German/French) believed that any major evacuation could be successful (as far as i read the accounts).

So, Britain did not treat it as a sideshow, but the Germans could have? leaving it to LW to sink the ships is not a bad idea really, rather than risking the panzers (Warsaw springs to mind).

thanks @Bougnas that does seem to be the context for the German decision making (albeit with a great deal of "flying by the seat of pants")

my input is the subtext of their decisions is they have no naval capability to stop or even interfere much, almost the same timeframe as the Dunkirk evacuations the Allies were evacuating from Narvik, and shortly thereafter there were huge evacuations from French ports.

the German KM having lost half their destroyers during the initial invasion of Norway (at Narvik) and while they had a 1939 class of torpedo boats they only appeared starting in 1943.

what PODs could affect the LW? I've seen discussion of attacking (or more likely just luck striking) the Dunkirk Mole (breakwater), the last section being a wooden structure. any ship sunk adjacent also becomes an impediment to its use.

an interesting scenario might be if the evacuation stayed at a (relative) trickle. there were approx. 100k evacuation from the "beaches" and approx. 230k from the "harbor" (what I am assuming is from the mole)

how does that play out?

 

[Cryhavoc101]

If one subscribes to the notion that a hard German push with no Halt Order would have further weakened German armored forces, it might actually weaken Fall Rot enough that the Weygand line holds enough for the reinforcements and equipment anticipated in June/July to arrive. Risking a considerably prolonged campaign in France in the hopes of capturing more of the encircled forces at Dunkirk may not be worthwhile.

Also they very likely treated the allied forces in Dunkirk (a destroyed port) as effectively encircled (with the sea to the allied forces backs abarrier rather than a route to freedom), in the same fashion as the rest of the French force in Lille (IV and V Corps of first French Army) which absorbed 4 Infantry Divisions and 3 supporting panzer Divisions - this force did not surrender until the morning of 1st June.

By 30th May all of the BEF and the other half of the French first army was already at Dunkirk and by the evening of the 1st only a 4000 strong British rear guard remained along with 115,000 French troops of which 75,000 would be evacuated but sadly the 40,000 French rear guard after abandoning its positions and marching to the port found its way blocked by 1000s of deserters and other troops who had been hiding in the town who swamped the ships sent to evacuate them and dawn found those troops forlornly waiting for evacuation when the Germans launched their final attack.

The German army likely had little concept of the ability of the RN to evacuate the majority of the forces there

 

[Post]

Also they very likely treated the allied forces in Dunkirk (a destroyed port) as effectively encircled (with the sea to the allied forces backs abarrier rather than a route to freedom), in the same fashion as the rest of the French force in Lille (IV and V Corps of first French Army) which absorbed 4 Infantry Divisions and 3 supporting panzer Divisions - this force did not surrender until the morning of 1st June.

By 30th May all of the BEF and the other half of the French first army was already at Dunkirk and by the evening of the 1st only a 4000 strong British rear guard remained along with 115,000 French troops of which 75,000 would be evacuated but sadly the 40,000 French rear guard after abandoning its positions and marching to the port found its way blocked by 1000s of deserters and other troops who had been hiding in the town who swamped the ships sent to evacuate them and dawn found those troops forlornly waiting for evacuation when the Germans launched their final attack.

The German army likely had little concept of the ability of the RN to evacuate the majority of the forces there

Yeah, the German army thought "with the back to the sea, they're cornered", while the British though "as long as we've got the sea in our back, there's a way out." Now that is an exaggeration, because the British didn't think they'd get out so many, but it's still a different mindset.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Yeah, the German army thought "with the back to the sea, they're cornered", while the British though "as long as we've got the sea in our back, there's a way out." Now that is an exaggeration, because the British didn't think they'd get out so many, but it's still a different mindset.

Well the RN was all "hold my rum ration" and did what it had done for several centuries - rescue the British army when it had gotten in over its head!

 

[Post]

Well the RN was all "hold my rum ration" and did what it had done for several centuries - rescue the British army when it had gotten in over its head!

Well, they have one job...OK, maybe two (although the second is preventing another army getting the British army in over its head in the UK, so you could argue that's essentialy the same).

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

If the stop order isn't given by Von Kluge and Von Runstedd then unsupported German tanks who have overrun their support get chewed up and suffer disproportionate losses.

This. OTL when the German armored corps reformed and started the offensive to drive the French army south they were mustering only 50% of their starting armored force. The balance were either completely written off, or required depot/factory level repair. A full on attack on the pocket would result in the French and Brit artillery & AT guns picking off hundreds more. Worse will be the loss of the infantry. Each panzer div had only 3 or 4 rifle battalions depending on tis organization. Assaulting the pocket without preparation would inevitably incur heavy losses. The losses OTL of the attacks or probes the German armored forces did make of the pocket were not trivial.

The risk here is the panzer waffle would be weakened to the point it cannot significantly assist the rest of the ground force in finishing off the French army. OTL the remaining armored strength was able to infiltrate and disrupt the Weygand line. The infantry corps had much less ability to infiltrate, had a low ratio for heavy artillery needed for head on attacks vs the French defense nests, and had a problem moving large quantities of artillery ammo forward. They can likely still defeat the French, but at a higher cost. OTL the German army, the ground force lost approx 58,000 killed in the six weeks campaign. about 10% more than killed in the first six weeks or Op Barbarosa. A stand up fight between the German and French infantry armies is likely to add another 8,000 to 12,000 German dead per week to the war. This may seem trivia, but as the military historian and analyst MBE Baily pointed out German losses of officers and NCO, the leaders, were far higher than in other armies. This weakens the Army cadre for more than a year until new leaders are brought up to a similar skill level.

Theres a similar problem with the Luftwaffe. OTL it lost a third of its strength during the six weeks of battle. Reserves were almost non existent, and the training schools had been suspended for the duration. Conversely the French had a considerable reserve as they had deactivated over 20% of their air groups in April, and had 600+ new aircraft from their factories and the US near operational readiness. The French operational air strength did not have the same decline as the German Air Force. This is not likely to win the war, but it does inflict another 100 - 150 lost aircraft per week on the Germans along with losses of aircrew. Again as with the gound force leadership the loss of skilled & experience pilots, navigators, & flight engineers weakens the Wehrmacht if the USSR is to be attacked 11 months later.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Well the RN was all "hold my rum ration" and did what it had done for several centuries - rescue the British army when it had gotten in over its head!

Its what combined operations and littoral warfare theory are all about.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Never trust any memoir. It doesn't really matter what the nationality of the historical person who wrote them is.

iIs educational to compare what the generals wrote before and during the event with their memory later.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

True but

It's not common for people to treat the memoirs of allied generals as literal gospel ans many people seem to treat those of German generals.

It may be that winning has less incentive for self justification?

 

[Post]

the panzer waffle would be weakened to the point it cannot significantly assist the rest of the ground force in finishing off the French army. OTL the remaining armored strength was able to infiltrate and disrupt the Weygand line. The infantry corps had much less ability to infiltrate, had a low ratio for heavy artillery needed for head on attacks vs the French defense nests, and had a problem moving large quantities of artillery ammo forward. They can likely still defeat the French, but at a higher cost. OTL the German army, the ground force lost approx 58,000 killed in the six weeks campaign. about 10% more than killed in the first six weeks or Op Barbarosa. A stand up fight between the German and French infantry armies is likely to add another 8,000 to 12,000 German dead per week to the war. This may seem trivia, but as the military historian and analyst MBE Baily pointed out German losses of officers and NCO, the leaders, were far higher than in other armies. This weakens the Army cadre for more than a year until new leaders are brought up to a similar skill level.

Theres a similar problem with the Luftwaffe. OTL it lost a third of its strength during the six weeks of battle. Reserves were almost non existent, and the training schools had been suspended for the duration. Conversely the French had a considerable reserve as they had deactivated over 20% of their air groups in April, and had 600+ new aircraft from their factories and the US near operational readiness. The French operational air strength did not have the same decline as the German Air Force. This is not likely to win the war, but it does inflict another 100 - 150 lost aircraft per week on the Germans along with losses of aircrew. Again as with the gound force leadership the loss of skilled & experience pilots, navigators, & flight engineers weakens the Wehrmacht if the USSR is to be attacked 11 months later.

Well, wouldn't go to war in a panzer waffle. Although at least you have enough to eat at hand.

Kidding aside: If no halt order has the effect to prolong the Battle of France, this would maybe butterfly the Battle of England and the planning of Sealion. No BoB means fewer losses for the LW. So that compensates the extra losses in the Battle of France.

 

[Gillan1220]

I was thinking the loss of the BEF would embolden Britain's resolve.

Anyone is free to correct me in this regard.

 

[thaddeus]

what PODs could affect the LW? I've seen discussion of attacking (or more likely just luck striking) the Dunkirk Mole (breakwater), the last section being a wooden structure. any ship sunk adjacent also becomes an impediment to its use.

an interesting scenario might be if the evacuation stayed at a (relative) trickle. there were approx. 100k evacuation from the "beaches" and approx. 230k from the "harbor" (what I am assuming is from the mole)

By 30th May all of the BEF and the other half of the French first army was already at Dunkirk and by the evening of the 1st only a 4000 strong British rear guard remained along with 115,000 French troops of which 75,000 would be evacuated but sadly the 40,000 French rear guard after abandoning its positions and marching to the port found its way blocked by 1000s of deserters and other troops who had been hiding in the town who swamped the ships sent to evacuate them and dawn found those troops forlornly waiting for evacuation when the Germans launched their final attack.

another interesting angle, in that the French were largely evacuated last. what if evacuation of that 75k French troops (or most of them) was halted by loss of the Mole, or other reasons? the politics of that scenario, not just the military aspect.

I had sketched out a scenario where this happened, along with the French ships Jean Bart and Strasbourg being sunk, speculated on the signing of the mooted Paris Protocols agreement between the Vichy and Nazi regimes.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

another interesting angle, in that the French were largely evacuated last. what if evacuation of that 75k French troops (or most of them) was halted by loss of the Mole, or other reasons? the politics of that scenario, not just the military aspect.

I had sketched out a scenario where this happened, along with the French ships Jean Bart and Strasbourg being sunk, speculated on the signing of the mooted Paris Protocols agreement between the Vichy and Nazi regimes.

The Majority of the French troops evacuated returned to France via Cherbourg and after being reequipped fought on until the armistice on 22nd June

I doubt it would made much difference politically as both Governments before the evacuation held out much hope of significant troops being evacuated anyway