Dunkirk: what if no escape ?

[drakeVL]

i red a few times that the germans delayed or waited before attacking dunkirk allowing the british to escape, now i wonder
what if nazi germany managed to prevent the escape of the british army ?

be it by sea air or sending the tanks in wichever would work, what would the effect be in the following months assuming no british manage to escape from there as a coherent force
they either get captured or killed (preferable the first obviously)

 

[jsb]

France holds the Weygand line due to lack of working Panzers as they have been used in street fighting in Dunkirk?
(only slightly joking)

 

[jonathan hanson]

would it be possible for some major british leadership shakeup due to such a disaster ?

 

[Deleted member 1487]

The usual POD is Hitler doesn't get convinced to issue the Halt Order and Kleist's panzers keep pushing. That means they bypass or overrun the French troops in the area before the British show up in significant numbers and are faced with Dunkirk already being held by the Germans. If that happens it would occur during the May Cabinet Crisis, which would more likely than not means Halifax wins and Churchill is forced to ask for terms.

1940 British war cabinet crisis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Grey Wolf]

Britain is not going to fight on with its entire main expeditionary force killed or captured.

They have forces elsewhere, of course, but if France is falling, these will be withdrawn even swifter than OTL

 

[jmc247]

One area not discussed is that suddenly Spain, Turkey and others start to have a hungry eye towards the British Empire that looks ripe for picking apart even by medium class powers. Also expect earlier uprisings in the British Empire.

 

[Scott Washburn]

If the BEF is lost, England will probably submit to a negotiated peace. The physical loss would be bad enough, but the psychological blow would be enormous. Plus the fact that a quarter million of their men would be prisoners and there would be no getting them back unless peace is made.

 

[stubear1012]

There has been various discussion about Britain agreeing to a negotiated peace. Often the predictions are that Britain uses the time get their POW's back , modernizing their equipment based on lessons learned, and reequipping their army.

They would then wait for an opportunity to get back into the war.

 

[JudgeKing]

The usual POD is Hitler doesn't get convinced to issue the Halt Order and Kleist's panzers keep pushing. That means they bypass or overrun the French troops in the area before the British show up in significant numbers and are faced with Dunkirk already being held by the Germans. If that happens it would occur during the May Cabinet Crisis, which would more likely than not means Halifax wins and Churchill is forced to ask for terms.

1940 British war cabinet crisis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Halifax was never a candidate for Prime Minister due to the slight issue of his being a member of the House of Lords.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

One area not discussed is that suddenly Spain, Turkey and others start to have a hungry eye towards the British Empire that looks ripe for picking apart even by medium class powers. Also expect earlier uprisings in the British Empire.

Not sure Turkey would be that interested, but Spain would be. As it was Franco was considering entering the war in late June 1940 before France surrendered and interrupted his plans; even then he seized Tangiers and was considering further pressure on France to turn over French Morocco, but the armistice meant that he'd butt heads with Hitler over that, so he tried to get Hitler to promise him a bunch of French colonies for entry into the war first.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Halifax was never a candidate for Prime Minister due to the slight issue of his being a member of the House of Lords.

Not an issue:

Edward Wood, 1st Earl of Halifax - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Churchill's political position was weak, although he was popular with the Labour and Liberal Parties for his stance against appeasement in the 1930s. He was unpopular in the Conservative Party, however, and he might not have been the choice of the King. Halifax had the support of most of the Conservative Party and of the King and was acceptable to the Labour Party. His position as a peer was a merely technical barrier given the scale of the crisis, and Churchill reportedly was willing to serve under Halifax. As Lord Beaverbrook said, "Chamberlain wanted Halifax. Labour wanted Halifax. Sinclair wanted Halifax. The Lords wanted Halifax. The King wanted Halifax. And Halifax wanted Halifax." Only the last sentence was incorrect, however; Halifax did not want to become Prime Minister. He believed that Churchill's energy and leadership skills were superior to his own.[31]

However I never said in this thread that Halifax would be PM or even wanted to be (I think he wanted Churchill to take the fall for the peace treaty based on how the situation in May played out), merely that he would push for terms and push to take them if they were reasonable (by the accounts of what terms were passed via back channels they basically were):

1940: Myth and Reality - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

With the BEF virtually captured in toto with their equipment, not to mention the 100k French who also got out per OTL, then Churchill would have to defer to Halifax, who's position would be enormously strengthened by the catastrophic defeat at Dunkirk.

 

[BlackDragon98]

the Panzers at Dunkirk were pretty worn down mechanically, and there crews were tired as well.
Might end up with higher German casualties at Dunkirk.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

i red a few times that the germans delayed or waited before attacking dunkirk allowing the british to escape, now i wonder
what if nazi germany managed to prevent the escape of the british army ?

be it by sea air or sending the tanks in wichever would work, what would the effect be in the following months assuming no british manage to escape from there as a coherent force
they either get captured or killed (preferable the first obviously)

The problem with this is the armored regiments were only a part of the battle. The Infantry at this point was catching up and pressed on against the enclave/s. More important was the German bomber forces pressed on their attacks and concentrated them. They failed to halt or sufficiently slow the retreat or evacuation.

France holds the Weygand line due to lack of working Panzers as they have been used in street fighting in Dunkirk?
(only slightly joking)

Rommel stated in his account of the campaign that his 7th Pz Div reached the coast with just 25 tanks. out of a starting strength of 220-225. This was after a two day stop when repairs were made and stragglers caught up. That was the extreme case, but the other leading armored divisions were down by 70-80 %. Combat losses had taken quite a few out, but a large portion were stalled with mechanical failures, or trying to catch up after repair.

Two other problems were artillery ammo resupply, and temporary bridges. As far as i can tell the division ammo trains were depleted & in some cases far to the rear to reload. The battery ammo was near of below its basic load, usually sixty rounds per 105mm howitzer. or a average days allotment at a slow rate of fire. As a former artillery man I can say a sixty round load can be expended in fifteen or twenty mines of intense firing. Our load was 80 HE rounds per 105mm howitzer. On 6th June the batteries covering OMAHA Beach were under restrictions & still were running out in less than six hours.. Bottom line here is the tank divisions had enough ammo with them for a single hasty attack of a few hours.

The Pontoon bridges of Guderians 19th Corps were used crossing the Ardennes & Meuse River. The successful advance used the relative flat & dry uplands between the Begian and northern French plains. But the region along Flanders coast has a network of canals and deep silty rivers. These were easily crossed by infantry in rubber boats and local barges captured, but the little riding equipment channelized the advance of vehicles and artillery.

Between this & the RAF interfering with the bomber strikes the 'panzers' cant 'blitz' the coast. It would be a slow methodical battle, & I'd not predict which side would win. I would say that if the tanks are used to maximum effort there going to be a longer recuperation time before the second attack south into France. OTL the armored divisions averaged slightly over 50% strength when the second offensive started. What a weaker & delayed attack means is up in the air. Maybe nothing, maybe at lot.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

the Panzers at Dunkirk were pretty worn down mechanically, and there crews were tired as well.
Might end up with higher German casualties at Dunkirk.

Doubtful. Since there was about 1 mauled 2nd line French division and 1 heavy British artillery task force (Usher Force) in place attacking on May 24th-25th would have been less costly than what they did IOTL, which was go hard AFTER the 26th with their panzers.
The panzers needed a few hours of maintenance and with 24 hours after the OTL Halt Order panzer strength had doubled, so it wasn't that big of an issue; the biggest problem was IOTL waiting until after the British had retreated to the Dunkirk perimeter before attacking.
Map for May 24th when the Halt Order was issued (it wasn't rescinded IOTL until the evening of May 26th):

StackPath

From this bigger map:

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

There has been various discussion about Britain agreeing to a negotiated. Often the predictions are that Britain uses the time get their POW's back , modernizing their equipment based on lessons learned, and reequipping their army.

They would then wait for an opportunity to get back into the war.

The economic conditions in Europe created by a German dictated peace at this point, and general nazi administrative incompetence would be a incentive for both Britain and the US to plan for further war. To return their economic to above Depression levels they'd have to fight the nazi new order globally for every business deal, export, or import. The badly constructed nazi economic system, and growing corruption about guarantees they cant compete with the better organized and capitalized US and British economic blocs. Odds are both side try to resolve the situation with a new war.

 

[BlackDragon98]

Doubtful. Since there was about 1 French division and 1 heavy British artillery task force (Usher Force) in place attacking on May 24th-25th would have been less costly than what they did IOTL, which was go hard AFTER the 26th with their panzers.
The panzers needed a few hours of maintenance and with 24 hours after the OTL Halt Order panzer strength had doubled, so it wasn't that big of an issue; the biggest problem was IOTL waiting until after the British had retreated to the Dunkirk perimeter before attacking.
Map for May 24th when the Halt Order was issued (it wasn't rescinded IOTL until the evening of May 26th):

StackPath

From this bigger map:

Based on the map, the best bet for the Germans is to crunch the Belgians and launch a heavy assault on the right flank.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Based on the map, the best bet for the Germans is to crunch the Belgians and launch a heavy assault on the right flank.

They were, which is why the Belgians surrendered a few days after this on the 28th. That bought enough time for the Dunkirk to be set up.
It was ultimately up to the 8th Panzer and W-SS to continue to attack on the 24th, when they already had a bridgehead over the river line the French 68th division was defending and had to give up as a result of the Halt Order, to seize Dunkirk before the bulk of the BEF could retreat there on the 27th.

 

[ivanotter]

The 'fun' thing with this one is that the best part of the UK generals would be 'in the bag'. That means, Alexander, Monty, Brooke, Gort and so on. the entire set of capable leaders.

Any come back into the war would be a vastly reduced management stream. Who really would like that.

If some 350,000 trops are POWs, I cannot see that Churchill will be carrying on. Someone else might take over.

We always mention Halifax but somehow, I think there would be others.

UK/US waiting for round 2? maybe the thing will end up in a fizzle. This will depend on how France is treated. If France is invited into the club as a full member (my bigger thought - the proto-EU), the UK must sooner or later come to terms with a different Europe.

BUT.... if they should meet sanity, they would not be nazis

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Given the British initially assumed they would lose the majority of the troops at Dunkirk and Dynamo was an attempt to rescue as much as possible, I think maybe some of the doom-mongering here is a touch over the top.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

We always mention Halifax but somehow, I think there would be others.

There couldn't be because of the rules of the War Cabinet. Only someone in the war cabinet could take over and in May the only options that the Tories would actually follow would be Halifax if Churchill was out. The only other option would be to ask the Tory party to support a Labour candidate and collapse the Tory government, which is not happening.

Given the British initially assumed they would lose the majority of the troops at Dunkirk and Dynamo was an attempt to rescue as much as possible, I think maybe some of the doom-mongering here is a touch over the top.

Under that estimate 75,000 would still get out of Dunkirk. That estimate was AFTER the Dunkirk perimeter was already established and men were already being evacuated off the beaches. The POD proposed is that none get out because Dunkirk is taken by the Germans before the BEF could retreat to the city, which means they won't be in a position to get anyone out.