Dunkirk Evacuation and the Africa/Middle East theatre

Hi all,

I know that the Dunkirk POD has been done to death, but I was curious about the operations that troops of the BEF took part in after their evacution, and what the impact would be if Britain could no longer call on them?

Apparently Britain estimated around 45,000 troops could be evacuated before the Germans stopped them. So what happens if the British only got slightly larger than this number out, say 60,000; instead of the 200,000 British troops that were saved?

Would the British still intervene in Greece, or simply abandon it to the Axis? The Greeks were cautious of Commonwealth forces because they did not believe the British could provide enough troops for a victory, would this fear be even more pronounced with this POD?

How would the North African theatre play out, especially since Australian troops which would now form a larger part of British TOE (I'm assuming) would be sent to fight the Japanese in 1941.

Or does it not really matter at all, with Indian divisions simply picking up the slack and becoming the main supplier of troops for British mediterranean endeavours.

Apologies if my numbers are a bit off, thanks in advance for replies.
 
Basically irrelevant. The forces in Egypt and N Africa were there pre war. Troops committed to the defence of the UK did not start being sent to N Africa in numbers until 1942.
They would have sent more Indian divisions. Almost likely more troops from Northern Coimmand in India would have been sent to Egypt.
 
Which armored division was sent from the UK to Egypt in August 1940 & were its ranks veterans of the May 1940 Belgian campaign?

AFAIK, no division was actually sent, rather the 7th Armored division which was already there got Matilda tanks to replace some of the more obsolete vehicles. Those tanks might not come in TTL due to Britain feeling more vulnerable. As a result Operation Compass takes heavier casualties, though I think it's still a victory. A less decisive Operation Compass coupled with a weaker Britain might be enough to prevent the serious reinforcement of Greece.
 
AFAIK, no division was actually sent, rather the 7th Armored division which was already there got Matilda tanks to replace some of the more obsolete vehicles. Those tanks might not come in TTL due to Britain feeling more vulnerable. As a result Operation Compass takes heavier casualties, though I think it's still a victory. A less decisive Operation Compass coupled with a weaker Britain might be enough to prevent the serious reinforcement of Greece.

If Greece wasn't reinforced at all, would the Allies have done better in the African theatre? Not having to suffer the loss of equipment and manpower, meaning there would be no ANZAC forces needing to rest/refit in Syria.

Would that mean the battle of Crete goes differently? Meaning more large scale Fallschirmjager use in the next few years of the war?
 
Which armored division was sent from the UK to Egypt in August 1940 & were its ranks veterans of the May 1940 Belgian campaign?

It was the 2nd AD. 1 of its armoured brigade was sent to Greece and the other and most of the support group was sent to Libya. IIUC both brigades had only 2 instead of 3 tank regiments.

2nd AD was destroyed in battle by the Germans in operation Sonnenblume and never re-raised.
 
I vaguely recalled the brigades were not used together in the ME. The division was reorganized late summer & received 3rd brigade from the 1st AD, which presumably had many veterans of the campaign in France. Its not clear when the decision to send it to the Mediterainian came. One opinions was as early as July 1940, another August. Actual embarkation was not fully underway until October & the bulk of the division seems to have departed then.

How much difference that one brigade of veterans made in the Mediterranean does not look like a big question.
 
...
Apparently Britain estimated around 45,000 troops could be evacuated before the Germans stopped them. So what happens if the British only got slightly larger than this number out, say 60,000; instead of the 200,000 British troops that were saved? ....

45,000 was Admiral Ramseys initial opinion when ordered to organize a evacuation. As the number of ships and craft, and the situation on the far shore became clearer estimates changed. Other might have been more optimistic in their first wild guess. I'd have probably low balled it myself.
 
I vaguely recalled the brigades were not used together in the ME. The division was reorganized late summer & received 3rd brigade from the 1st AD, which presumably had many veterans of the campaign in France. Its not clear when the decision to send it to the Mediterainian came. One opinions was as early as July 1940, another August. Actual embarkation was not fully underway until October & the bulk of the division seems to have departed then.

How much difference that one brigade of veterans made in the Mediterranean does not look like a big question.

The British position in Libya in early 1941 was pretty bad. Benghazi wasn't opened up before the Germans ejected the Commonwealth so their supply situation limited the 2AD movement from supply dump tp supply dump. They were also ordered to hold very forward positions, which exacerbated their supply situation and caused a lot of unserviceability with the armoured vehicles.

I doubt having veterans in this situation would help very much.
 

Errolwi

Monthly Donor
45,000 was Admiral Ramseys initial opinion when ordered to organize a evacuation. As the number of ships and craft, and the situation on the far shore became clearer estimates changed. Other might have been more optimistic in their first wild guess. I'd have probably low balled it myself.

I remember hearing that the 45,000 was before they realised that the mole could be used as a jetty, greatly increasing the rate of loading ships, the main port facilities already being unusable.
 
I'd have to review when Ramsey's original estimate was made, & what he based it on, if anything. I suspect the small craft of the reserve fleet were not considered initially their lighterage function, taking men off anywhere the larger craft could not greatly increased the numbers.
 
The estimates were based entirely on the belief the Germans would be able to stop any rescue efforts after the second day I believe, so it was probably a low ball for the absolute worst case scenario.

But I was more interested in the effect the loss of several divisions would have on British mediterranean strategy than the real plausibility.
 
But I was more interested in the effect the loss of several divisions would have on British mediterranean strategy than the real plausibility.

One thing that I heard years ago was that the materiel losses in France had major knock-on effects. The British lost something like 400 2pr AT guns in France, just at the time they planned to stop production and switch to the far more effective 6pr, but facing invasion with a massive shortage of AT guns they kept the 2pdr in production. This meant that the desert battles of 1941 were fought with ineffective 2pdrs and poorly used 25 pdr artillery rather than the effective 6pdr AT gun.
 
But I was more interested in the effect the loss of several divisions would have on British mediterranean strategy than the real plausibility.

Theres a effect of the loss of however many thousands of well trained soldiers and officers. Five or ten precent of the Empires total military at the time, tho a better trained cohort of that total. I have confined my speculation on the loss of a row of division and corps commanders. Alexander, Brooke, Montgomery, Anderson to name four.
 
One thing that I heard years ago was that the materiel losses in France had major knock-on effects. The British lost something like 400 2pr AT guns in France, just at the time they planned to stop production and switch to the far more effective 6pr, but facing invasion with a massive shortage of AT guns they kept the 2pdr in production. This meant that the desert battles of 1941 were fought with ineffective 2pdrs and poorly used 25 pdr artillery rather than the effective 6pdr AT gun.

I heard that as well. But the material losses were going to occur whether the British managed to get out more men than OTL or less.

I have confined my speculation on the loss of a row of division and corps commanders. Alexander, Brooke, Montgomery, Anderson to name four.

I didn't realize Montgomery was there, apparently he was important to the Battles of Al Alamein. What if he had been captured in the Evacuation rather than getting out?
 
...I didn't realize Montgomery was there, apparently he was important to the Battles of Al Alamein. What if he had been captured in the Evacuation rather than getting out?

He commanded a inf div, 3rd IIRC. was favorablly commented on by his corps commander for conducting a difficult rear guard/withdraw action.
 
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