At one point in 1988 Dukakis held a commanding lead, but squandered it by various gaffes, inopportune photos, and no clear response to the Willie Horton add. Lets say he wins. Things for the most part go as per ATL, until the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. Dukakis does not send military aid, oil skyrockets, the economy goes in the crapper, Perot runs even stronger, and the Democrats end up running third. The main question is, who do the Republicans nominate? Almost any candidate could win in this scenario.