Dreams of Empires: New France survives

Hey guys! After years of lurking and an aborted attempt last year, here's first (real) attempt at an alternate timeline. Wish me luck!

In the interest of full disclosure, I must say that I am French Canadian, but fear not: this isn't going to be a Quebecwank (or a Francewank for that matter). That would be boring and predictable.

Also, since English is not my first language, I must ask for your leniency regarding the many grammatical mistakes that will inevitably litter my posts.

And now, without further ado, the timeline.
 
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PART I. ABHORS THE BOLD

james-wolfe.jpg


ENCYCLOPEDIA MUNDI: SEVEN YEARS’ WAR [1]
[…]
Despite its the name, this conflict, regarded by many historians are the true first Global War, actually lasted nine years, from the Jumonville Incident in 1754 to the Paris peace conference in 1763. The war was triggered by the clash of two colonial empires - Britain and France - competing for hegemony in North America. It was in many ways the culmination of one and a half century of rivalry in the new world between these two powers, as well as a continuation of their ongoing antagonism in Europe. For the third time in the 18th century, a war between American colonies mirrored one between their mother countries. Indeed, this time the New World preceded the Old: although there was no official declaration of war until the battle of Minorca in May 1756, the British and the French colonists had waged a war of skirmishes for the two previous years.
[…]
While France was still at that time arguably the first military power on the European continent, it was clear that its colony of New France was at a disadvantage in North America. The demographic edge of British North America [2] was decisive: by the 1750s, it had a population of 1,5 million inhabitants, while New France had barely 70,000 souls. While the French colonists could rely on the military help of their many Native American allies, support from France was limited, because the government chose to focus its forces on the European theatre, sending only small forces to protect its possessions in the Americas, Africa and India. Consequently, the preferred strategy was to fight a defensive war in the colonies, and bargain for the return of lost territories at the end of the war in exchange for gains made in Europe. [...]

-//-

DICTIONNAIRE BIOGRAPHIQUE DU CANADA EN LIGNE [3] : JAMES WOLFE
[...]
In the North American theatre, the French army under General Montcalm, assisted by the Canadien militia and the war parties of many allied tribes, conducted a series of raids on British forts in the Ohio and Illinois Countries and into New England itself, in order to slow the advance of the enemy into Canada. In the absence of any functional road network, an invading force needed to cross woodland and mountainous areas, where it would be vulnerable to pettywar [4]. Montcalm's efforts proved relatively successful, as Montcalm scored many important victories (notably at Fort Carillon) which manage to slow the British's advance. Nonetheless, the French were fighting a losing war: the fall of the Louisbourg fortress on Cape Breton Island allowed the Royal Navy to blockade the St. Lawrence River, preventing the arrival of any reinforcement from France. In 1759, a three-pronged invasion of Canada was launched, under the command of Lord Jeffrey Amherst. On June 27, Québec City was besieged by General Wolfe's army.
[...]
By late August, after weeks of bombardment, Wolfe's army had failed to make any breakthrough: alt ought most of the lower town had been levelled, and the French were running out of gunpowder, Montcalm would not to surrender. The British fleet controlled the river and the southern shore, but all attempts to land troops on the northern shore had failed. Furthermore, on 19 August, illness spread in the invader's camp, and Wolfe himself fell ill for many days, which dealt a severe blow on the morale of his troops. After his recovery, the general decided that the city had to fall by mid-September, or it would never fall. Thus, on 12 September, a last attempt was made to take Québec.
During the night, a force of 4, 800 regulars, led by Wolfe himself, embarked on barges, crossed the river and headed for the French outpost at the Anse-au-Foulon, a small cove a few miles upriver of Québec. However, he strong current pushed the barges in front of the Vergor outpost, at the bottom of the steepest part of the Diamond Cliff. A group of 24 volunteers climbed said cliff in the dead of night and captured the outpost, opening the way for the landing party, which quickly took the Anse-au-Foulon. At 6 am, Wolfe's force moved toward the plateau and the headed to the Plains of Abraham, a large field southwest of the city walls. The plan was to take the enemy by surprise: the scouts had reported that the bulk of the French army was deployed downriver, by the village of Beauport, the site of the previous landing attempt, and the most obvious point of attack. Wolfe gambled that Montcalm wouldn't have the time to redeploy his troops from the other of the city to intercept his, and that he could take the city without much resistance. [...]

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TIMELINE

1759.
13 September, 2am: A few hours after going to bed, Louis-Joseph de Montcalm, lieutenant-general of the army of New France, suddenly wakes up from a nightmare. He tells his lieutenants that he had just dreamed of a British attack coming from the Plains of Abraham (Point of divergence). Shaken by a vision that felt real, he immediately sends messages to governor Vaudreuil (positioned near Beauport, upriver) and his aide-de-camp, the Count de Bougainville (stationed in the village of Cap-Rouge, west of the city), demanding reinforcements to defend the plains. Vaudreuil, a longtime rival of Montcalm, complied right away: the two men had had an argument over the defence of the city a few days ago, and the governor had insisted that the plateau were insufficiently protected. Thus Vaudreuil took Montcalm's request for an admission of his mistake, and the governor led his troops personally to the plains. As for Bougainville, he strongly doubted the wisdom of changing battle plans on account of a dream, but he followed his orders nonetheless.

At 4 am, the forces of Montcalm, Vaudreuil and Bougainville converge to the Gate St-Louis, in front of the Plains. A scouting party of militiamen is sent forward, and report the presence of Wolfe's men at the Anse-au-Foulon, to the French's astonishment. Montcalm quickly deploys his troops on top of the plateau to form a line. At 6 am, an force of 3, 600 soldiers and 3, 000 militiamen and Native American auxiliaries [5] was waiting for the British.

When Wolfe reaches the Plains of Abraham, he realizes that he won't have the element of surprise. He faces a difficult choice: his army is outnumbered but his professional soldiers are better trained than the Canadien militia. Since winter is coming in a few weeks, he cannot afford to continue the siege for long, and he may never get another chance to attack the city. Furthermore, he realizes that attempting a retreat could be disastrous: his men would have to climb down a cliff, chased by the French, and his barges would be exposed to French canon-fire, in broad daylight. So Wolfe takes a gamble, and order his men to march forward.

At 7 am, the two armies meet. The battle lasts no more than thirty minutes.

-//-

DICTIONNAIRE BIOGRAPHIQUE DU CANADA EN LIGNE: JAMES WOLFE (continued)
[...]
In older history textbooks, the disaster of the Plains of Abraham if often laid solely at Wolfe's feet, who is blamed for singlehandedly wasting Britain's last chance of defeating its last rival in North America and ruling the whole continent. This harsh judgement, however, as been revised in recent works. James Wolfe certainly made for a convenient scapegoat, as he died on the battlefield and could not defend his decisions to his superiors, and his subordinates, who had been critical of his strategic skills since the beginning of the campaign, could easily paint him as the man responsible for the defeat. Some uncharitable writers even claimed that Wolfe hadn't quite recovered from his illness, and that his attack plan was the product of a feverish mind! Conversely, Montcalm, who died of his wounds the day following his victory, went down in French textbooks as a hero and a military genius.
It should be said, in fairness, that while Wolfe's plan was extremely risky, it was by no mean doom to fail. It was based on what was at the time accurate knowledge of the French's troop deployment, and it made good use the assets at Wolfe"s disposal, as well as the solid cooperation between the army and the navy during the entire operation. It should also be said that the riskier parts of the plan (landing on the shore, climbing of the cliff at night and taking the French battery) were executed flawlessly. If anything, Wolfe was a pioneer of the kind of amphibious attacks that would be commonly used two centuries after his death. It was only upon reaching the battlefield that the British lost their advantage.
Even after the defeat on the Plains, the siege was necessarily lost. Wolfe's soldiers lost their morale when their general was mortally wounded, but his officers led an orderly withdrawal back to the ships, and while the British losses were important, they were not crippling. In fact, the French had sustained greater losses: the Redcoats' precise volleys had decimated the untrained Canadien militia. Furthermore, Québec's food supplies were running low at the time, so it is quite possible that, had the British continued the siege for a few more weeks, Vaudreuil would have been forced to surrender despite Montcalm's victory.
But such speculations belong to the works of Divergent History writers. What did happened is that, three days after the defeat, the demoralized British army lifted the siege of Québec and sailed back to New England. Thus the British invasion of Canada had failed, and the French dream of a colonial empire in North America had survived... for a time.

-//-

Notes:

[1] All quotations from the Encyclopaedia Mundi here reproduced are taken from the 16th edition, published in 2011 by the Encyclopedia Mundi C., Halifax, with permission of the publishers.

[2] A slight anachronism here from the author: the phrase "British North America" wasn't used before the 19th century. In this context, it should read "the Thirteen Colonies (and Nova Scotia)".

[3] Not an actual passage from the real article of the Dictionary of Canadian Biography, for obvious reasons. Said article was a very useful source, however.

[4] TTL's word for guerrilla warfare. The word is mostly associated with the tactics of Native American warriors during intercolonial conflicts, but the word was actually coined by Charles Cornwallis to describe the way Irish rebels fought the British army during the Great Rising, a few decades later. ("We shall teach these petty warriors to fight like gentlemen!")

[5) The exact strength of the French army in Québec at the time isn't known precisely; based on my research, the number of men varies depending on the sources. I'm going here with the numbers from a textbook made by the Canadian military. If anyone's interested, it says there was roughly 2, 420 trained soldiers and 1, 200 marines during the sieges. The number of militiamen apparently varied from week to week, between 3, 000 and 5, 000. While in doubt, in preferred to be conservative.

-//-

What do you think? Feedback is appreciated! :)
 
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First things first, welcome :)

Secondly, the premise your work from is, I am affraid faulty. We have discussed such a scenario reasonably often in the past and the overall conscensus tend to be that it is indeed possible to prevent a fall of Nouvelle France in the Seven Years War (tough an earlier POD then yours would be far preferable since the Brits are holding Louisbourg at this point and will probably keep sending fleets up the Saint-Laurent until they get the results they want, it isn't like they don't have the ressources to take a couple of defeats like your ATL Battle of the Plaines d'Abraham aniway) but it would only delay the inevitable.

By this point the whole of French North America had a population of 60 000, give or take, and was completely dependant on the metropolis for defense purposes. The 13 colonies, on the other hand, where already 2 millions strong and, as they would demonstrate a few years latter, had a quite significant warmaking potential on their own. The gap was actually growing ever greater too. Combine that with the, very well established by this point, British dominance on sea and you pretty much have a situation where the best France can do is to defend herself here, its pretty much inevitable that eventually you would have the Brits be lucky and conquer the place.

To actually keep Nouvelle-France alive you need a POD far enough removed to butterflie all that but then you probably also butterfly Nouvelle-France as we know it aniway.
 
To actually keep Nouvelle-France alive you need a POD far enough removed to butterflie all that but then you probably also butterfly Nouvelle-France as we know it aniway.
Indeed. I had considered many PODs. The more promising was for France to repeal (or better yet, never adopt) its policy of allowing only catholics to immigrate to its colonies. It could help diminish the demographic gap between the two colonial empires. However, I thought a battle was a much more dramatic way of starting a timeline.
Also, I liked the idea of Montcalm winning through dump luck.
And you are correct, the thirteen colonies were more powerful than New France by most metrics. But then again, they had been more powerful since the late seventeenth century, and new France continued to exist, mostly because, as I've mentioned, France bargained for lost territories at the end of its many wars with Britain.
As I will elaborate in the following posts, the victory at the Plains of Abraham will not turn the tide of war (that would indeed by impossible) but will leave the French crown in a stronger bargaining position when the peace treaty is signed.
Remember, the premise is that New France survives, not that it actually wins the war.
 
Indeed. I had considered many PODs. The more promising was for France to repeal (or better yet, never adopt) its policy of allowing only catholics to immigrate to its colonies. It could help diminish the demographic gap between the two colonial empires. However, I thought a battle was a much more dramatic way of starting a timeline.
Also, I liked the idea of Montcalm winning through dump luck.
And you are correct, the thirteen colonies were more powerful than New France by most metrics. But then again, they had been more powerful since the late seventeenth century, and new France continued to exist, mostly because, as I've mentioned, France bargained for lost territories at the end of its many wars with Britain.
As I will elaborate in the following posts, the victory at the Plains of Abraham will not turn the tide of war (that would indeed by impossible) but will leave the French crown in a stronger bargaining position when the peace treaty is signed.
Remember, the premise is that New France survives, not that it actually wins the war.

I would argue that you would need to change the whole approch France had to its colony to change that, not just one decree.

As of the POD, note that I never said that France couldn't win the war (tough its rather hard to do even that with the brits sitting at Louisbourg) but that to make survive in the longterm is, for all things and purposes, impossible. There is a difference of degree with the superiority the 13 colonies enjoyed during the late 17th century and now: the gap has pretty much grown exponentially since then, it is inevitable it will reach a point where any defense, even of Quebec itself, will became impossible.

It is possible to bargain on relatively reasonable term when you only loose peripheric stuff, like Louisbourg after the war of Austrian Succession, but once you can even defend efficiently the center of your colony it is something else, you need to make very major sacrifices to get your territories back every time you loose them. France just didn't care enough about Canada for that.

They're is signs that Nouvelle-France was approaching such a point during the Seven years war as it was essentially at two battles of conquest from the get go, one battle to find a way to the Saint-Lawrence valley and one to attack Quebec itself. Montcalm did rather better then anyone could rightfully expect from him, winning a few stunning victories, but he still failed at the end. His successors, who probably won't be as talented, will need to continuously doing better then he had in a situation where the balance of strenght is even worse.

Simply put, a long term survival of Nouvelle-France simply wasn't a possibly at that point.
 
I would argue that you would need to change the whole approch France had to its colony to change that, not just one decree.
Probably, yes.
It is possible to bargain on relatively reasonable term when you only loose peripheric stuff, like Louisbourg after the war of Austrian Succession, but once you can even defend efficiently the center of your colony it is something else, you need to make very major sacrifices to get your territories back every time you loose them. France just didn't care enough about Canada for that.
True, New France wasn't very profitable for Paris. Which is why London wasn't all that interested in it either. The Thirteen colonies wanted to conquer it, but the British government ceded Louisiane to Spain after the Seven Years' War, and converted most of the captured lands into the Indian Reserve, a barrier state closed to colonization. This shows that Britain was very eager to drive its rival from North America, but wasn't all that interested in controlling the territories in question.
If the valley of the St. Lawrence river remains in French hands until the end of the European conflict, Paris might be able to keep it, as I don't think London was very interested in it. It would be a very diminished New France, but it would be sufficient for my purposes.
As for the long-term survival of the colony, you assume that the British Empire will keep trying to conquer Canada in the future. Which, admittedly, is likely, but not certain, as I planned to discuss in further updates.
There are examples in world history of small, scarcely populated territories surrounded by larger, more powerful neighbours that do not end up conquered.
It might be a tad unlikely, I admit, but isn't it what's fun in alternate histories?
 
True, New France wasn't very profitable for Paris. Which is why London wasn't all that interested in it either. The Thirteen colonies wanted to conquer it, but the British government ceded Louisiane to Spain after the Seven Years' War, and converted most of the captured lands into the Indian Reserve, a barrier state closed to colonization. This shows that Britain was very eager to drive its rival from North America, but wasn't all that interested in controlling the territories in question.
If the valley of the St. Lawrence river remains in French hands until the end of the European conflict, Paris might be able to keep it, as I don't think London was very interested in it. It would be a very diminished New France, but it would be sufficient for my purposes.
As for the long-term survival of the colony, you assume that the British Empire will keep trying to conquer Canada in the future. Which, admittedly, is likely, but not certain, as I planned to discuss in further updates.
There are examples in world history of small, scarcely populated territories surrounded by larger, more powerful neighbours that do not end up conquered.
It might be a tad unlikely, I admit, but isn't it what's fun in alternate histories?


That's very much incorect: the destruction of the french colonial empire, at the time the only real colonial rival of Britain since the declines of Netherlands and Spain, was the primary goal of Britian participation in the Seven Years War and London primary political goal in the early to mid 18th-century all around, appart from keeping the balance of power in Europe witch was ultamitely a way to keep her colonial dominance too. Basically, Britain had no reasons to not keep going at it against the french colonial empire and Canada was one of the two primary holdings of said empire so its bound to fall eventually.

Morever, after the war only the Ohio Valley was turned in an indian reserve, witch might have been the majority of the territory superficy wise but was virtually unsettled by Europeans, with only a string of forts spreaded all over the place. Even that only happened to placate the amerindians after Pontiac rebellion, as a mean to keep effective control of the territory (in retrospect it might have been of the greatest political blunder in history since all the troubles that would eventually transform the 13 colonies into the United States of America started there).

As for other examples in history, those indeed exist but there is usally something peculiar with them and-or their relationship with their stronger neighbour that account for their particular destiny, nobody has been able to make a strong argument that Nouvelle-France had such a card in her hand. In fact, it is far more realistic to argue that it was at a singular disadvantage here considering her complete dependance on the metropolis for defense matters!

All in all, and has a fellow french-speaking canadian who studied the question allot, I can tell its more far more then a tad unlikely as you put it but, if not straight ASB, at least utterly unrealistic.

Of course, its your TL and you do what you want with it but since it as allot of holes from the get go, better fixing the foundations before going on to the rest of the house lets say :) To answer your question, the fun with Alternate histories, IMO at least, is to explore worlds and histories that could have been had things turned out differently, for that you need a realistic POD and further developments that respect logic and-or what we know about the ways people in charge saw things at that point. A Nouvelle-France surviving long term just because of a victory at the Plaines d'Abraham is pretty much the north american equivalent of Napoleon winning it all with a POD at Waterloo, it simply doesn't add up and therefore isn't a world that could have been :p
 
Basically, Britain had no reasons to not keep going at it against the french colonial empire and Canada was one of the two primary holdings of said empire so its bound to fall eventually.
It had a very good reason: wars are expensive, and while the Seven Years's War was ultimately a victory, it was a costly one, which is why Britain avoided going to war against France in the following years: Corsica was abandoned despite the promise of defending its independence and was annexed by France in 1769 ; Pondichery and the other French holdings in India were left alone (precisely because they no longer posed any threat to the BEIC). Even during the American Revolutionary War, Britain avoided any engagement with France outside of the Americas, because of how expensive prosecuting a war with her greatest enemy is.
Morever, after the war only the Ohio Valley was turned in an indian reserve, witch might have been the majority of the territory superficy wise but was virtually unsettled by Europeans, with only a string of forts spreaded all over the place. Even that only happened to placate the amerindians after Pontiac rebellion, as a mean to keep effective control of the territory
That's my point: Britain wasn't interested in the territory itself.
In fact, it is far more realistic to argue that it was at a singular disadvantage here considering her complete dependance on the metropolis for defense matters!
Again, the same could be said of, say Pondichery, which remained in French control until 1946 (with a few interruptions, admittedly).
A Nouvelle-France surviving long term just because of a victory at the Plaines d'Abraham is pretty much the north american equivalent of Napoleon winning it all with a POD at Waterloo, it simply doesn't add up and therefore isn't a world that could have been
Fear not, that is not the only reason, merely the point of divergence.
 
It had a very good reason: wars are expensive, and while the Seven Years's War was ultimately a victory, it was a costly one, which is why Britain avoided going to war against France in the following years: Corsica was abandoned despite the promise of defending its independence and was annexed by France in 1769 ; Pondichery and the other French holdings in India were left alone (precisely because they no longer posed any threat to the BEIC). Even during the American Revolutionary War, Britain avoided any engagement with France outside of the Americas, because of how expensive prosecuting a war with her greatest enemy is.

That's my point: Britain wasn't interested in the territory itself.

Again, the same could be said of, say Pondichery, which remained in French control until 1946 (with a few interruptions, admittedly).

Fear not, that is not the only reason, merely the point of divergence.

1. The War of Austrian Succession was expensive too and the Brits kept coming at it, if they decided its worthwile in the long run (and they decided that with North America pretty early on) they will keep going at it. Britain had the means to absord such costs relatively quickly after a war and therefore think in the long run.

2. The Saint-Lawrence valley, by far the most developed and populated area of Nouvelle-France, was not transformed into a reserve and was defended by Britain latter on despite other important commitments elswhere, she was interested in the territory.

3. Pondichery was kept but the rest of France position in India was utterly destroyed, the french where allowed a little foothold to make commerce with British supervision and thats it. Over was the time when they could play the geopolitical game against the BEIC, they where now there at their acquiescence. In that way its more akin to OTL Saint-Pierre et Miquelon then a surviving Nouvelle-France.

4. As a starting point the Plaines d'Abraham just don't work, too much things already going against Nouvelle-France by that point.
 
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Probably, yes.

True, New France wasn't very profitable for Paris. Which is why London wasn't all that interested in it either. The Thirteen colonies wanted to conquer it, but the British government ceded Louisiane to Spain after the Seven Years' War

Britain never actually controlled Louisiana (at least, not the part west of the Mississippi river). The 1763 peace treaty divided the "French" and British possessions along the Mississippi, but France had secretly ceded Louisiana to Spain a few months earlier.

4. As a starting point the Plaines d'Abraham just don't work, too much things already going against Nouvelle-France by that point.

I can see how it could work. You would need to change events elsewhere. If France can either get Spain to join the war earlier, or re-occupy Hanover, or mount a more credible invasion threat - one of those could cause the British to decide that another Québec invasion is not worth it and shift their attention elsewhere. (Note that OTL they did not try again after their failures in 1690 and 1711, and in 1747 they cancelled their invasion plan before it started.)
 
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I can see how it could work. You would need to change events elsewhere. If France can either get Spain to join the war earlier, or re-occupy Hanover, or mount a more credible invasion threat - one of those could cause the British to decide that another Québec invasion is not worth it and shift their attention elsewhere. (Note that OTL they did not try again after their failures in 1690 and 1711, and in 1747 they cancelled their invasion plan before it started.)

I didn't meant it as being impossible to save Quebec this time around but as making the point that Nouvelle-France was bound to fall at this point, either in this war or latter.
 
I didn't meant it as being impossible to save Quebec this time around but as making the point that Nouvelle-France was bound to fall at this point, either in this war or latter.

Well, I don't know: if France can defend Québec in 1759, why not again 20-30 years later? Nouvelle-France might be more defensible as a smaller colony. The French forces fought well (for the most part) in the Seven Year's War, but were overextended over too large an area. ITTL they could be more concentrated.
 
I didn't meant it as being impossible to save Quebec this time around but as making the point that Nouvelle-France was bound to fall at this point, either in this war or latter.
You make many good points. I am well aware of the issues you have raised, which is why I mentioned many of them in my original post. Granted, saving New France in 1759 might seems impossible, but I prefer to see it as a challenge. As for future wars, I will discuss them after I finish covering the Seven Years' War in the second of third part of the timeline. I will address these issues.
 

Decius00009

Banned
The premise is all well and good,but the British were nearly about to let the French keep Canada at the negotiations in 1763 and take Saint Domingue instead. If the French keep Canada, they lose the most valuable colony in the world. That would have serious butterflies
 
First things first, welcome :)

Secondly, the premise your work from is, I am affraid faulty. We have discussed such a scenario reasonably often in the past and the overall conscensus tend to be that it is indeed possible to prevent a fall of Nouvelle France in the Seven Years War (tough an earlier POD then yours would be far preferable since the Brits are holding Louisbourg at this point and will probably keep sending fleets up the Saint-Laurent until they get the results they want, it isn't like they don't have the ressources to take a couple of defeats like your ATL Battle of the Plaines d'Abraham aniway) but it would only delay the inevitable.

By this point the whole of French North America had a population of 60 000, give or take, and was completely dependant on the metropolis for defense purposes. The 13 colonies, on the other hand, where already 2 millions strong and, as they would demonstrate a few years latter, had a quite significant warmaking potential on their own. The gap was actually growing ever greater too. Combine that with the, very well established by this point, British dominance on sea and you pretty much have a situation where the best France can do is to defend herself here, its pretty much inevitable that eventually you would have the Brits be lucky and conquer the place.

To actually keep Nouvelle-France alive you need a POD far enough removed to butterflie all that but then you probably also butterfly Nouvelle-France as we know it aniway.
First things first, welcome :)

Secondly, the premise your work from is, I am affraid faulty. We have discussed such a scenario reasonably often in the past and the overall conscensus tend to be that it is indeed possible to prevent a fall of Nouvelle France in the Seven Years War (tough an earlier POD then yours would be far preferable since the Brits are holding Louisbourg at this point and will probably keep sending fleets up the Saint-Laurent until they get the results they want, it isn't like they don't have the ressources to take a couple of defeats like your ATL Battle of the Plaines d'Abraham aniway) but it would only delay the inevitable.

By this point the whole of French North America had a population of 60 000, give or take, and was completely dependant on the metropolis for defense purposes. The 13 colonies, on the other hand, where already 2 millions strong and, as they would demonstrate a few years latter, had a quite significant warmaking potential on their own. The gap was actually growing ever greater too. Combine that with the, very well established by this point, British dominance on sea and you pretty much have a situation where the best France can do is to defend herself here, its pretty much inevitable that eventually you would have the Brits be lucky and conquer the place.

To actually keep Nouvelle-France alive you need a POD far enough removed to butterflie all that but then you probably also butterfly Nouvelle-France as we know it aniway.
We can only talk about british naval dominance after the napoleonic wars. The real issue, as you said, was new france population compared to eastern america. That could have been different if France had a more open migration policy.
 
The premise is all well and good,but the British were nearly about to let the French keep Canada at the negotiations in 1763 and take Saint Domingue instead. If the French keep Canada, they lose the most valuable colony in the world. That would have serious butterflies

Actually it was Guadeloupe - a very important colony, but not quite as valuable as Saint-Domingue.
 
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Well, I don't know: if France can defend Québec in 1759, why not again 20-30 years later? Nouvelle-France might be more defensible as a smaller colony. The French forces fought well (for the most part) in the Seven Year's War, but were overextended over too large an area. ITTL they could be more concentrated.

Montcalm was a good commander and most of his early british officers where idiots. but if you look at the demography and the economic development of both colonies you see the gap between the two colonies only growing faster and faster as the years went by, no reasons for that to change.

Basically you go from a colony who, because of the geopoliticals circumstances, his at two defeats from conquest in all circumstances and who has no offensive capabilities on her own and its only gonna get worst!

We can only talk about british naval dominance after the napoleonic wars. The real issue, as you said, was new france population compared to eastern america. That could have been different if France had a more open migration policy.

It hasn't yet reached Trafalgar level but talking about the Brits having the far bigger end of the stick at sea is accurate for the time period.
 
Indeed. I had considered many PODs. The more promising was for France to repeal (or better yet, never adopt) its policy of allowing only catholics to immigrate to its colonies. It could help diminish the demographic gap between the two colonial empires.

I don't think it would. Even at the Huguenots' peak, my understanding is that France was overwhelmingly Roman Catholic. Lifting a ban on the Huguenot presence in the French colonies might have provided some migrants, but it would not have provided that many more colonists. More, for France to allow religious minorities with histories of dissidence to emigrate freely to the colonies would have been a break with colonial traditions, even in Britain: Dissenting Protestants, not Catholics, were able to start up offshoot societies.

That said, there's no reason why New France could not start to attract migrants. In the case of a situation like this, where France barely manages to retain Canada and quite possibly loses other significant colonies, it might actually break with its relative laissez-faire policies and start trying different things. It might well sponsor settlement, for instance--if it tried to colonize Guyana with Rhinelanders at terrible cost, why not try a much healthier Canada in this TL?
 
PART II. PETTYWAR

bushy_run_battle.jpg


TIMELINE

1760.
Lord Amherst's invasion of Canada continues, culminating in the siege of Montreal in May. The Duke of Levis, the new commander of the French forces in New France, considers defending the city, but, realizing that its defences are inadequate, moves north with his forces to fortify Quebec. Montreal is captured without a fight by the British army.

1761
.
Amherst attempts another siege of Quebec with the support of the British navy in the Gulf, but is driven away by the Duke of Lévis. The harsher climatic condition of a early autumn forces him to fall back to Montreal. Levis continues to wage a defensive war for the duration of the hostilities.

In the Great Lakes region, the Lenape prophet known as Neolin starts preaching a new religions based on a series of visions he experienced. He condemns European expansion and Native American lands, as well as witchcraft, polygamy and alcohol drinking. He gathers a small group of followers, and inspires many war leaders to resist the colonial powers. Among them is Obwandiyag [1] of the Odawa Nation.

In Beauport, near Quebec City, the HMS Pembroke attempts a landing, which is swiftly repelled. It is but a minor and indecisive engagement, however it is remembered by history because of two men who fought in it: James Cook and Louis Antoine de Bougainville. These men would later be known as two of the greatest explorers of their respective nation, and, decades later, would become good friends.

1762.

Obwandiyag creates a league of Nations to oppose the British. This league includes, among others, the Odawa, the Ojibwe, the Wendat and the Seneca (the later being a member of the Haudenosaunee [2] league, a longtime ally of the British empire). They wage a war of ambush in the Great Lake area, the Ohio and Illinois valleys, and attack multiple forts controlled by the British army. Although the League is successful in many places (Fort Sandusky, St. Joseph, Venango) it fails to capture their main target, Fort Detroit. Obwandiyag does manage however to disrupt the British war effort by cutting the army supply lines.

Amherst, unwilling to fight on two fronts while his supply lines are threatened, marches south with the bulk of his forces to crush Obwandiyag's League. What follows are the Months of Ashes, a brutal campaign of repression during which Amherst has dozens of villages burned to the ground in order to quell the Native rising [3]. The campaign in the Great Lakes concludes with the the Obwandiyag's League broken, the forts recaptured and the Native American leaders in hiding [4], though a series of raids continue to plague the British forces for months. The skirmishes against them force the British to delay another attempt to invade what's left of New France.

1763.

With is supply lines now secured, Amherst is ready to launch another invasion of New France. However, before his army can leave Montreal, the Treaty of Paris is signed.


-//-

Notes :

[1] Obwandiyag is better known as Pontiac in OTL. Of course, Neolin's teachings were not the only cause for his actions, which were actually motivated by a complex political situation that had been going on for years.

[2] Iroquois.

[3] Before you accuse me of casting the British in a bad light, know that Amherst in OTL was the guy who came up with the idea of giving smallpox-infested blankets to Native Americans in order to reduce their numbers, civilians included. Yeah.

[4] Pontiac and Neolin both survive in TTL.
 
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PART III. A FEW ACRES OF SNOW

article


ENCYCLOPEDIA MUNDI: SEVEN YEARS’ WAR (continued)

[…]

After the Treaties of St. Petersburg (5 May 1762) and Hamburg (22 May) ended the fighting in the eastern European theatre of the war [1], the Treaty of Paris (10 February 1763) brought the war in North America to an end.

The Fourth Intercolonial War, as it was also known, proved to be a disaster for France. She had lost her trading posts in India and Senegal, as well as many highly profitable Carribeans islands (notably Guadeloupe). While Quebec City had been successfully defended, most of New France was under military occupation, including Louisbourg, a fortress on a very strategic location in the Gulf of the St. Lawrence. France had however made some gains with the capture of Minorca, early in the war, and a few British trading posts in the East Indies. Thus the two colonial powers, along with Spain and Portugal, negotiated for the return of some of their respective possessions.

The Louisiana territory, part of the French empire, had seen no major engagement and remained under the control of Paris. However, due to the desire of British colonials to expand westward, London demanded, and received, most of the lands east of the Mississippi, in exchange for the return of Saint Lucia, Dominica and Granada. La Nouvelle-Orléans and a small enclave around the delta of the Mississippi remained under French jurisdiction [2].

The fate of Canada proved contentious. The French Foreign Minister, Choiseul, was of the opinion that the colony was no longer profitable to France, and had become to expensive to defend. Thus he seriously considered trading it to Britain in exchange for more valuable territories. However, King Louis XV objected: the valley of the St. Lawrence had remained (for the most part) unconquered, and when the tales of the heroic defences of Quebec by Montcalm and Levis had reached Paris, they were celebrated with elation by the court and people (probably because there had been precious few victories for France to celebrate at that point in the war). As a result, the perception of Canada in France had changed: before the war, the colony had been dismissed by Voltaire as "a few acres of snow", but now it had become for the French people a glorious battlefield. Furthermore, the king argued, losing the entirety of their colonial empire would deal a huge blow to France's prestige. The return of Pondicherry had made it possible to save face, even if most of French India had been lost. Saving Canada should likewise be attempted, he insisted. Finally, there was great concern for the fate of the catholic population of Canada under a Protestant regime. The treatment of British and Irish Catholics under English rule had been a source of indignation across the Catholic world. Thus Louis was reluctant to abandon Canada.

For his part, British Prime Minister Lord Bute was in a position of strength during the negotiations, but he opted not to be too hard on France to prevent another war in the near future. The failure to capture the entirety of New France weakened Britain's claim on it, and while Canada was wanted for its strategic value in North America, it was far from being the most financially valuable territory to annex. The sugar plantations of Guadeloupe were far more tempting for Great Britain, whose economy would need a few years to recover from prosecuting a very expensive war.

Thus it was decided that the valley of the St. Lawrence and the northern Pays-d'en-Haut [3] would remain part of the French empire in exchange for Guadeloupe. Louisbourg and Acadia remained under Britain's control, and London's claim on the land surrounding the Hudson Bay was confirmed in the treaty. This decision by France to keep Canada, unsound from an economic point of view, would be heavily criticized in the following years, especially in light of the financial crisis that France would face in the following decades, and the dreadful consequences of said crisis. Concerns about prestige had prevailed over pragmatic considerations, but the dream of a French empire in North America - albeit a very diminished one - lived on…

[…]

-//-


[1] The war between Austria and Prussia, however, would be resolved by the Treaty of Hubertusburg, signed a few days later, as in OTL.

[2] Because Canada was not fully conquered, there was no Treaty of Fontainebleau in 1762, and western Louisiana was not ceded to Spain.

[3] The territories north of the Great Lakes, more or less southern Ontario.

-//-

I probably should draw a map of North America following the Treaty of Paris, but my mapmaking skills are very poor, so it might take some times.
 
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