Victory!
‘The War is Won’, screamed every headline.
Everyone was jubilant, but behind the scenes there was worry, dissent and dissatisfaction with the situation. The Kaiser's government had collapsed, but technically the German Army and Navy hadn't. Instead, both were key to the overthrow of the Kaiser's regime, as their leaders sought to save what they could of their nation’s gains in the war.
The circumstances of the armistice meant that both sides secretly heaved a huge sigh of relief that they hadn’t lost the war. Both wanted a peace treaty to come quickly; the Germans wanted it before American troops could reach Europe in even greater numbers, while the Allies wanted to ensure that peace was established before Russia completely collapsed.
To that end, the Allies insisted on a ceasefire in the East as well as the West, to which the Germans agreed. It in the short term that cost them very little, as their Eastern armies needed to either regroup for further action against the collapsing Russian Empire, or redeploy to defend the Western Front.
Once the armistice took effect and was seen to hold, it quickly became apparent to each side that there were few circumstances in which the war could be renewed. As news of the likely terms filtered out to the public and through the ranks of the armies, it became increasingly improbably that war-weary nations would accept anything other than peace. Although occasional shows of bravado were made by both sides, neither was demanding outrageous terms, as each was secretly afraid that they had more to lose than the other.
The new German government accepted among themselves that Germany would ultimately lose the war, but they were not beaten yet, and they would not accept draconian terms. They would accept withdrawals, a reduction in armaments and perhaps some form of payments to assist in rebuilding; but they would not accept outright humiliation. If the Allies' objective were to be the destruction of Germany, then they would continue to fight.
The Allies were not as united as they might have been. Shortly before the first negotiations, the American President proposed a set of ‘Thirteen Points’* in a speech to Congress. He believed such principles should help to shape a post-war world of openness, democracy and free trade. While the idealism was widely applauded, neither the British nor the Italians had time for many of Wilson’s ideas, while a leading French politician was heard to dismiss them as ‘the little ideas of a thin professor who knows nothing of the world’.
The difference between the Points and the Allies’ proposals at Stockholm showed the Germans that there was disagreement among their enemies; and that could be exploited.
After the loss of so many lives, the French and Italians wanted to extract as much as possible (although Italy’s interests lay in parts of the swiftly collapsing Austro-Hungarian Empire). However, the British and Americans held the upper hand. The British Army would bear the brunt of any fighting if the war were continued into the spring of 1918, and the British government was not willing to expend the men or the money to drive the Germans back deep into their own country. The isolationist faction in America grew stronger every day the peace held; and their only interest was to secure terms and return to more important matters at home.
The alarm caused by the sudden ‘socialist revolution’ in Germany wore off as the weeks of October 1917 passed, and it became clear that the new German government were not anarchists who wanted to murder the bourgeoise in their beds. The revolution may have been prompted by the soldiers, sailors and workers, but it went hand-in-hand with traditional German leaders; everyone from the Generals to the many levels of the states’ aristocracy. There were hotheads who wanted to set up a new government of the people (the people in question, of course, being themselves), but they weren’t sufficiently numerous or united to take control of the country.
Nevertheless, the new German leadership knew they only had a few months to solidify their position. If the war were continued into 1918, German industry would slow dramatically from lack of resources, while food shortages would push the population to the brink of starvation. If that happened, the people might very well come for their leaders in force.
However, the German government still had bargaining chips, and they used them well. They confirmed the offer to withdraw their forces from all the occupied territories in the West, and accepted the principle that some form of payment might be made to the Allies, although no specific offers were made.
In return, they made a startling demand; they requested the return of their colonies. They accepted that they had conquered territory in Europe, which would now be returned, however they argued that Allied occupations of German colonies were nothing more than similar conquest. Whether this was a serious demand was open to debate; there was never any chance of it being granted, but the trouble it caused served to distract the allies at a crucial time in the negotiations. Britain had already promised that Japan should have sovereignty over the northernmost ex-German islands in the Pacific, while all the other Allies wanted and expected their shares.
When the demand was rejected, a follow-on proposal that the value of the seized colonies be deducted from any prospective war damages undoubtedly helped to widen the beach between the Allies as to how much the Germans should be made to pay, and perhaps led to a weaker peace treaty and softer terms for Germany than might otherwise have been the case.
There were other areas where there was little room for negotiation. France demanded the return of Alsace and Lorraine, and although the area contained valuable resources, the Germans were relatively willing to concede, subject to terms. The majority of the local population had never reconciled themselves to being German, and wartime efforts to eliminate dissent had backfired. Alsatian troops could never be entirely trusted, and as the return of the provinces went a long way to satisfying French demands, Germany was glad to be rid of them. Guarantees were sought and agreed regarding the status of anyone wishing to return to Germany, and of the ownership of German businesses in the region, however once the French were back in control, these proved to be of little value.
The French also wanted to confiscate large amounts of war material, specifically Germany's heavy guns. The Germans expected this, and although a show of negotiation was made, it was a question of ‘how much’, rather than ‘if’.
However, German fearmongering about the threat of Bolshevism had an effect on the western Allies, who were forced to accept that Germany still needed a sizable army to protect herself against the threat of revolution and of the civil war that was spreading across Russia. The Allies also had to face the reality that they were in no position to physically disarm the German armies in the East.
The best that could be done was to agree that all fortifications along the frontier with France and Belgium were to be dismantled, and that Germany would be permitted no land-based guns of more than 12-cm calibre, except in fixed positions for naval defence around harbours.
British concerns were more focussed on naval matters, but as on land, the German government would not accept outright humiliation.
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