Dragoon 1943 Italy bipassed

If Sadinia had been invaded followed by the South of France with no particular effort being put into mainland Italy in 1943..

How likely is it that the Western Allies would have been in a better position by the fall of 1944 (when the European carve up was agreed by Stalin and Churchill)?
 
The German forces not committed to Italy plus the German forces in France 1943 which have not been tied down in Normandy concurrently with Operation Dragoon plus the reduced ability of the WA to land forces and supply them in 1943 and a vastly reduced level of Allied air support in a hastily seized Sardinia alone probably equals a decisive German victory.
 
Comrade Grimm is right... the Germans had 6 panzer divisions in France (of varying strength) and 5 high quality mobile divisions in Italy; plus the better part of 25 infantry divisions available for service in France, nor was the LW decisively beaten by 1943

It's destined to have very heavy casualties and has a reasonable chance of being pushed back into the drink... the allies need more divisions if they want to fight in france bottom line
 
Italians change sides & Italy is hostile to Germany. Germany is compelled to occupy with, oh, half the troops OTL used to fight Allies. Allied troops are not tied up in Italy, so they are available in Britain for invasion in summer '43. Allied shipping similarly is not wasted supplying the troops, & civilians, in Italy. Alex is given command of 21st AG in Normandy. He uses the experienced 2d Canadian at Falaise, closing the Gap. He has the wit to realize the Scheldt Estuary has to be cleared for Antwerp to be useful, so he asks for a brief pause after Patton's breakout, allowing First Canadian Army to clear the estuary, so Antwerp can be opened. The war in Europe ends in December '44. Japan surrenders in April 1945. Leslie Groves has a stroke when he realizes the Bomb will not be used.:p The cost of the Bomb project is kept secret for 50yrs, til everyone involved is dead.:rolleyes::p

Stalin refuses to believe the U.S. will use atomic weapons on civilians, & invades in 1948. Moscow is turned into a radioactive crater. So are Berlin, Paris, & London. People become convinced Hilter escaped & took up writing SF, under the pseudonym Norman Spinrad.:p (OK, that's ASB.:p)
 

Markus

Banned
IMO you are a bit too pessimistic. If the Allies had hopped from Sicily to Sardinia to Corsica, they could have landed anywhere from central Italy to southern France. That is ~500 miles of coastline, roughly twice the distance from Dunkirk to Cherbourg. This will tie down quite a few german divisions.



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IMO you are a bit too pessimistic. If the Allies had hopped from Sicily to Sardinia to Corsica, they could have landed anywhere from central Italy to southern France. That is ~500 miles of coastline, roughly twice the distance from Dunkirk to Cherbourg. This will tie down quite a few german divisions.



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There where already German divisions there... southern France was part of the atlantic wall and the ports where fortified... high command west had 6 panzer divisions available for service and Rommel/Kesselring had 5 high quality mobile divisions in Italy which could be brought to bear against any landing

So thats 11 mobile German divisions, plus the 25 infantry divisions they had in France which could be brought against a landing

Could the Anglo American army of 1943 beat 30+ German divisions when they didn't have nearly the air superiority that they had in 1944

The answer they thought was probably not
 

Commissar

Banned
America runs over the Nazis. The Sherman at this time is superior to current German Tanks and actually remained so throughout the war as indicated by the lopsided tanks losses German Tanks suffered to Shermans in Tank battles.

Its telling that most German Tanks were knocked out by Shermans, while most Shermans were knocked out by AT-Guns.
 
Sherman at this time is superior to current German Tanks and actually remained so throughout the war as indicated by the lopsided tanks losses German Tanks suffered to Shermans in Tank battles.
Really? Superior to the Panther? On what Nazi fantasy world?:confused::confused:
Its telling that most German Tanks were knocked out by Shermans, while most Shermans were knocked out by AT-Guns.
Yes, it's telling us German doctrine dictated how to kill enemy armor. It has damn all to do with the quality of German tanks.
 
hi,

ANY landings in france in 1943 are doomed...

germany was just way to strong to be defeated in 1943 in this way

the things about "shermans superior to german tanks", well, in 1943 the shermans that fought german tanks had vastly superior numbers, the shermans are not equal to german MarkIV... cause the markIV kill the sherman at any range but the sherman do not the same with the markIV... the StugIIIG is superior to the sherman, too.

only the numbers make the difference.
in 1943 the allies do not have air superiority in this areas...
in southern france they are NOT in italy - a sideshow for the germans, but in the most important area next to northern france/lowlands... so no chance...

the germans have the better troops (in quality - green american troops are just cannon fodder - esp. if we take the armored divisions, they are no real enemy). more planes (achiving air superiority in this area, if needed) and better logistics.

the allies have worse planes (compared to 1944), less ships with worse flak (again, compared to 1944), and less supply/troops

also, the germans subs are still a possible danger to the allies (again this is total different in 1944)

italy NOT being invaded is no enemy to germany... why should it be... italy only surrendered to the allies because they invaded. they exactly waited untill enough troops had been on italian soil to surrender...

with the clusterfuck in southern france the wallies cannot invade in italy, they loose to much troops and equipment to do.
 
Invasion of Southern Italy was brilliant. Perhaps though if they would decide to attack Northern Italy(Genoa, Rome) from Sardinia and Corsica in fall 1943 instead you can have an interesting TL. Sicily won't even have to be attacked as Italy would surrender even faster, Mussolini won't get away and if they can advance far enough(Venice,Trento) Germany itself is in reach. By then its winter and the Alps are gonna be tough to cross for both parties. Gives the Allies time to prepare defences along the Austrian border. They would still need a second front in France though, they won't be able to advance into France be themselves.
 
Invasion of Southern Italy was brilliant. Perhaps though if they would decide to attack Northern Italy(Genoa, Rome) from Sardinia and Corsica in fall 1943 instead you can have an interesting TL. Sicily won't even have to be attacked as Italy would surrender even faster, Mussolini won't get away and if they can advance far enough(Venice,Trento) Germany itself is in reach. By then its winter and the Alps are gonna be tough to cross for both parties. Gives the Allies time to prepare defences along the Austrian border. They would still need a second front in France though, they won't be able to advance into France be themselves.


well wasn´t the thread about "italy bipassed"? so could you explain why italy will roll over without being invaded? that will not happen

if you want to discuss that it is smarter to invade northern italy instead of southern italy, i agree... but this wasn´t part of this discussion, right?
 

mowque

Banned
America runs over the Nazis. The Sherman at this time is superior to current German Tanks and actually remained so throughout the war as indicated by the lopsided tanks losses German Tanks suffered to Shermans in Tank battles.

Its telling that most German Tanks were knocked out by Shermans, while most Shermans were knocked out by AT-Guns.

Better tank = victory? Man, if only it was that easy.
 
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