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Not exactly a traditional AHC or What if? , I noticed on my steam account the old game Revolution Under Siege and was reminded of its interesting alternate history scenario on which this thread is named. Quite often, Brest-Litovsk is used as a template for any Western peace in which Germany "wins" (as opposed to holding out and getting a compromise peace) and the potential for instability and conflict on the Teutonic world's new frontier is generally downplayed in discussions, despite the possibilities and major civil war boiling in Russia. So, I thought perhaps we could go into a deeper look of the situation in "Ober Ost" (Lacking a better term) in the event of a CP victory. For the sake of the discussion, let's assume the peace follows these basic trends with the rest of the Entente

  • Generally antibellum borders restored with Belgium and France, though Luxembourg is annexed and the Briey iron fields put under a 20 year lease. Though the later is exhausted, France can't be forced to demilitarize the border.
  • Italy is forced to demilitarize the north-east and scuttle its Adriatic fleet, as well as return the Dodecanese Islands to the Ottomans. They also are obliged to pay reparations, and are generally rendered a total non-threat
  • Germany gets her African colonies returned except for Southwest Africa, which is annexed by South Africa. Colonies in Asia are "sold" to Japan. The British also agree to restore Ottoman borders and acknowledge their territorial integrity in exchange for formal recognition of Egyptian and Cypriot lose and Britain taking control of Italy's oversea's territories.
  • B-L is recognized by all parties, as are any agreements hammered out with the Balkan States. Serbia is left a smoldering wreck with a Habsburg quisling on the throne, Bulgaria gets everything she wants, Albania is a German client and King Constantine is restored to power in a Greece with substantially greater royal authority.
  • This peace occurs in the late spring/early summer of 1918, and negotiations butterfly away the Spring Offensives. The blockade of Germany ends by the start of August, and everybody at least partially demobalizes
Given these conditions, how would things play out in Eastern Europe? Obviously, Germany and AH have serious domestic issues, separatists and Communists are still clashing with White and pro-German factions, and the newly established regimes are shakey at best.
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