Downfall

The Sandman

Banned
The big thing we aren't thinking about here is this: if the war continues into 1946, Japan collapses. Not just their ability to fight; the entire society comes apart at the seams from mass famine and possibly disease. Think Germany in 1918, except given a bit more time to worsen, without the prospect of newly-conquered farmland to loot, and with the internal transportation network annihilated by continuous bombing and thorough mining of all the waterways. And with the major cities in ruins.

And let's not even get into the likely repeated use of nuclear and chemical weapons to deal with IJA strongpoints. Kyushu would suffer pretty badly from that.

About the only consolation for Japan is that once we do finally overrun their last forces on Kyushu (who, given our total command of the seas and air at that point, would not have been able to evacuate to Honshu even if they wanted to), they don't have anything left to stop our advance into the rest of the country. They intended to send everything to Kyushu in the hopes of bleeding us out their, hopes that would die when we just nuked their army until it glowed before continuing our assault.
 
Oh I haven't forgotten. Probability is high that Downfall would have lead to the destruction of the Japanese nation.


The big thing we aren't thinking about here is this: if the war continues into 1946, Japan collapses. Not just their ability to fight; the entire society comes apart at the seams from mass famine and possibly disease. Think Germany in 1918, except given a bit more time to worsen, without the prospect of newly-conquered farmland to loot, and with the internal transportation network annihilated by continuous bombing and thorough mining of all the waterways. And with the major cities in ruins.

And let's not even get into the likely repeated use of nuclear and chemical weapons to deal with IJA strongpoints. Kyushu would suffer pretty badly from that.

About the only consolation for Japan is that once we do finally overrun their last forces on Kyushu (who, given our total command of the seas and air at that point, would not have been able to evacuate to Honshu even if they wanted to), they don't have anything left to stop our advance into the rest of the country. They intended to send everything to Kyushu in the hopes of bleeding us out their, hopes that would die when we just nuked their army until it glowed before continuing our assault.
 

burmafrd

Banned
My father landed in the afternoon on Omaha Beach. My Uncle fought on Iwo Jima. I have spoken to hundreds of WW2 vets over the years since I was lucky enough to meet someone in the early 80's who was a professional historian who's specialty was WW2.

I laugh at those that have no understanding of the huge difference in the culture and people of the US in the 1940's vs Today. Any one that tries to use anything today to compare to the 1940's is out to lunch.

They were tired of the war- of course. They wanted it to end- of course.
BUT THEY WANTED VICTORY MUCH MORE.
They remembered the farce of WW1 and the "Armistice" and mess of a peace treaty. THIS TIME we were going to finish it right. THAT is the huge difference.
This was a generation that had survived the Great Depression. They were a lot tougher and more realistic then we are today. Once they started a job you worked at it until it was DONE.
 

The Sandman

Banned
They were tired of the war- of course. They wanted it to end- of course.
BUT THEY WANTED VICTORY MUCH MORE.
They remembered the farce of WW1 and the "Armistice" and mess of a peace treaty. THIS TIME we were going to finish it right. THAT is the huge difference.
This was a generation that had survived the Great Depression. They were a lot tougher and more realistic then we are today. Once they started a job you worked at it until it was DONE.

On the other hand, I do wonder how they would have taken the sort of horror show that would have awaited them when they pushed into Honshu and Shikoku in 1946. I mean, it's one thing to confront fanatical IJA troops who've committed countless atrocities, but quite a different thing to confront a civilian society (not just the government, but the entire Japanese culture) that has collapsed over the winter as the Home Islands run out of everything, and as it becomes impossible to move what little food is still being grown into the cities.
 

Bearcat

Banned
On the other hand, I do wonder how they would have taken the sort of horror show that would have awaited them when they pushed into Honshu and Shikoku in 1946. I mean, it's one thing to confront fanatical IJA troops who've committed countless atrocities, but quite a different thing to confront a civilian society (not just the government, but the entire Japanese culture) that has collapsed over the winter as the Home Islands run out of everything, and as it becomes impossible to move what little food is still being grown into the cities.

I can see that "Greatest Generation" winning in Japan... grimly... and being somewhat changed by the experience. Not to say they would have all become post-Millenial liberals or anything, but having seen a Tacitus's Peace, they might well be much more sober about war in the future. Now whether that changes much in the Cold War or not, I'm not sure. I'm kind of glad we never had to find out though.
 
I found this on Wiki.

Operation_Downfall_-_Map.jpg
 
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