Downfall of New Labour: Mark II

Hey, you may remember my first TL on this site focused on an early Blair resignation/Brown ascenion and as the title can hint, the end of the New Labour project. I'm going to be using headline format because I prefer the format to article based. Seeing as I did not complete the original as I was unhappy with it, I'm rebooting it and changing things to make it more realistic.

The Downfall of New Labour

February 2004

Blair to resign as Prime Minister due to "stress related issues", many in Labour Party blame Iraq for early departure

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President Bush takes a break from campaign trail to pay tribute to outgoing British PM; Bush describes Blair as a "true visionary and great leader"

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Senator Kerry projected to win Tennessee and Virginia primaries

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Senior Democrats questioning if Edwards would be better than Kerry?

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Gordon Brown declares candidacy for Labour leadership

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Robin Cook rules himself out of race, endorses Brown

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Diane Abbott to stand as fringe left wing candidate against Brown

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Conservative hardliners with Iranian elections

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Bush's endorsement would be like a kiss of death. Of course, how would Tories react? (I'm hoping for a PM Davis or Leader of the Opposition Davis...)
 
February 2004

Senior Labour figures rally to support Brown; Straw and Benn endorse

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Prescott announces he will not resign as Deputy Leader but will leave after the next election

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Questions over why Blair will not endorse Brown

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Abbott speculates on Chancellor's role in forcing Blair resignation

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More deaths in Iraq as massacre of Iraqi policemen by Coalition enemies occurs in Falluja

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Rebellion in Haiti as President Aristide resigns

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February/March 2004

Michael Howard reportedly "confident" about facing a prospective PM Brown

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Leadership ballot for February 28th, winner to become PM on March 1st

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Kerry secures Democratic nomination after withdrawal of Edwards, in dead heat with Bush

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Brown wins, Chancellor secures Labour Leadership with 69% of the total vote, Abbott slow second with 26%

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Blair officially resigns as Prime Minister

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Brown becomes 52nd Prime Minister of Britain, Cabinet appointments to follow

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March 2004

Straw stays as Foreign Secretary, Darling promoted to Chancellor, Prescott remains as Deputy PM and takes on Home Secretary role

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"Blair Babes" remain; Jowell goes to Health, Harman to Trade, Kelly to Education and Smith to Northern Ireland

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Full Cabinet List
Gordon Brown — Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury
John Prescott — Deputy Prime Minister and Secretary of State for the Home Department
Alistair Darling — Chancellor of the Exchequer and Second Lord of the Treasury
Lord Goldsmith — Lord Chancellor
Paul Boateng — Lord President of the Council & Leader of the House of
Commons
Baroness Amos — Lord Privy Seal & Leader of the House of Lords
David Miliband — Chief Secretary to the Treasury
Jack Straw — Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs
Geoff Hoon — Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
Nick Brown — Secretary of State for Transport
Tessa Jowell — Secretary of State for Health and Minister for Women
Paul Murphy — Secretary of State for Defence
Robin Cook — Secretary of State for Work and Pensions
Ruth Kelly — Secretary of State for Education and Skills
Harriet Harman — Secretary of State for Trade and Industry
Charles Clarke — Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport
Hilary Benn — Secretary of State for International Development
Jacqui Smith — Secretary of State for Northern Ireland
Des Browne — Secretary of State for Scotland
John Hutton — Secretary of State for Wales
Alan Johnson — Minister without Portfolio and Labour Party Chairman
John Reid — Parliamentary Secretary to the Treasury and Government Chief Whip
Baroness Scotland - Attorney General

Andrew Smith, Peter Hain, Patricia Hewitt and David Blunkett amongst sacked Ministers

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Brown angers left-wing with little inclusion in Ministerial posts

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I fail to see how Diane Abbot could win 29% of the vote in the labour leadership election given she's a pretty fringe element, especially in 2004 which was the height of New Labourism. She has no base of support, especially given that she's ideologically closer to Brown than Blair. The fact that she'd run in the first place is almost ASB.
 
I fail to see how Diane Abbot could win 29% of the vote in the labour leadership election given she's a pretty fringe element, especially in 2004 which was the height of New Labourism. She has no base of support, especially given that she's ideologically closer to Brown than Blair. The fact that she'd run in the first place is almost ASB.

Abbott won 26% of the vote, as shown by this article (http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2004/aug/03/uk.labour) the Labour membership in December 2003 was roughly 215,000. Also, I did specify that she was a fringe candidate for the left-wing of the party (Skinner, T. Benn etc.) who wanted a candidate that could be electable and willing to stand, alas Abbott was the only interested nominee. Therefore she assumed the left wing banner and she courted them during her bid in 2010 OTL.

Onto the numbers, Abbott captured 26% of the vote with 72% of the 215,000 members turning out to vote. Now, 72% of the 215,000 is 154,800 dead on, give or take a few members not turning out. Of course, Labour leadership elections are split into MP/MEP votes, trade union votes and general member votes. As Brown was the front-runner, he captured majorities in all these areas. Of the total vote as I specified, Abbott won 26% as she was essentially the anti-Brown/major left wing candidate.

26% of 154,800 is 40,248, the total number of votes from members that Abbott received
69% of 154,800 is 106,812, the total number of votes from members that Brown received

69 plus 26 is 95, so the final 5% of the 72% turnout ballots were "write in or spoilt", these numbered about 7,740. From these figures, Brown won a majority of 66,564. A solid majority, but remember the hard left wing of the Labour Party still has a power-base and united behind Abbott in a futile bid to drive Brown out and this will be a core part of the TL.
 
April 2004

Brown rates economy and social policy as key areas, passes act to increase benefits for war veterans

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Kerry "undecided" on running mate

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Brown visits Gaddafi to "thank him" for dismantling weapons program

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Tensions rise in Middle East after Israeli air strike kills Hamas leader Abdel Aziz al-Rantissi

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Dick Cheney rushed to hospital after suspected heart attack

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April 2004

Cheney comes out of heart surgery, recovery period 6-12 months. Believed to have offered resignation

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Bush accepts resignation of Vice President

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Brown riding high in polls, snap election near?

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Tory Chairman Fox insists party is ready "any time, any place"

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Who will replace Cheney? Powell, Frist, Rice all mentioned

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Abu Grahib Scandal, prisoner's shown under US torture

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Bush promises inquiry on Abu Grahib, still no word on VP selection

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Abbott won 26% of the vote, as shown by this article (http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2004/aug/03/uk.labour) the Labour membership in December 2003 was roughly 215,000. Also, I did specify that she was a fringe candidate for the left-wing of the party (Skinner, T. Benn etc.) who wanted a candidate that could be electable and willing to stand, alas Abbott was the only interested nominee. Therefore she assumed the left wing banner and she courted them during her bid in 2010 OTL.

Onto the numbers, Abbott captured 26% of the vote with 72% of the 215,000 members turning out to vote. Now, 72% of the 215,000 is 154,800 dead on, give or take a few members not turning out. Of course, Labour leadership elections are split into MP/MEP votes, trade union votes and general member votes. As Brown was the front-runner, he captured majorities in all these areas. Of the total vote as I specified, Abbott won 26% as she was essentially the anti-Brown/major left wing candidate.

26% of 154,800 is 40,248, the total number of votes from members that Abbott received
69% of 154,800 is 106,812, the total number of votes from members that Brown received

69 plus 26 is 95, so the final 5% of the 72% turnout ballots were "write in or spoilt", these numbered about 7,740. From these figures, Brown won a majority of 66,564. A solid majority, but remember the hard left wing of the Labour Party still has a power-base and united behind Abbott in a futile bid to drive Brown out and this will be a core part of the TL.

All very well and good, but surely the main anti-Brown candidate would be a Blairite? Furthermore, which group would support Abbot. MPs would back Brown because he's the more connected figure in the party with more gravitas and influence. The Trade Unions will back Brown because he's the more likely to win and has previous experience with the economy. Individual labour members might vote for Abott, which is possible given opposition to Iraq, but Brown is still the more recognisable figure.

Not that I don't like this TL I think it's very good and interesting so far and I hope you keep it up; I'm just nitpicking really.
 
May 2004

Bush announces he will not nominate a VP under 25th Amendment, will instead choose a running mate for election in November

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Labour Chairman Alan Johnson plays down rumours of snap election

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Chechen President Kadyrov killed in landmine attack

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Brown to visit Washington to discuss Iraq with Bush

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Scott McClellan says Bush to make VP announcement soon

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May 2004

It's Collins! Maine Senator Susan Collins is surprise choice for Bush's running mate

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Hillary Clinton gaffe as Senator states she believes Collins pick was to "screw over Kerry's polling with women and moderates"

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Darling introduces Budget increasing education & health benefits

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Brown pledges to re-focus Labour's priority to reform in three letters, "NHS" as healthcare efficency in Britain becomes top issue

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Health Secretary Tessa Jowell propelled into spotlight over PM's proposed NHS reforms

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Brown calling a snap election would make sense in this scenario, Labour were ahead in the polls already under an increasingly unpopular Balir, a snap election would likely lead to a landslide albeit perhaps not as big as 2001.
 
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