The Spread of the Revolutions
The declaration of a German Republic had been somewhat expected since the deposition of the Prussian King a few months prior, and this had helped the big crowned heads of Europe to absorb the shock somewhat. However, the revolution in Sardinia-Piedmont in July, which had seen a republic declared after just a few weeks of low-intensity fighting was a great shock to Europe. However, it was one in which the old order of Europe could not react in any meaningful way to due to their own internal rivalries. Neither Britain nor France wished to see the other gain influence on the Italian Peninsula, and Austria was far too concerned with the loss of her Empire to intervene in what had previously been her sphere of influence. Thus, it seemed as if the old order was paralyzed when Venice joined the new Italian Republic in August, or when Venice was followed by the former duchies in Central Italy [1]. This served only to encourage revolutionary tendencies though, and revolutionaries now targeted the Pope as well as the Bourbon rulers of Naples and Sicily in the South.
The Italian Revolution also had its effects elsewhere in Europe. On the left bank of the Rhine, French administered since 1808 but German speaking and rather proud of that fact, French gendarmes now found themselves on the receiving end of casual acts of violence from local youths. King Louis held off deploying soldiers to the area, but when a spate of murders in September left 15 members of the gendarmes dead, the French King reluctantly sent the army to restore order in the six Departments that made up the French Rhineland. The campaign of repression which followed produced a great deal of anger and indignation over the Rhine in Germany, and the beleaguered Frankfurt Government found itself under pressure from the left and right to mitigate French actions against German-speaking Revolutionaries. Pleas for moderation directed to the French government fell on deaf ears, and hopes that the French Left would oppose the government proved to be fruitless, as there was broad support in French for the “Securitisation” of the regions on the border with Germany. As Germany found itself on the brink of a second and deeper revolution, German Prime Minister Leopold Von Thielmann gave the order to mobilize the German Army. Conflict between France and Germany now seemed inevitable.
However, the tensions that were threatening to throw Austria into full-scale Civil War were rather different in their origin. The Hungarian-led Danubian Federation had proved very successful in stripping Austria of her Empire, though now internal differences began to emerge. The Slovakians and Croatians found themselves absorbed into the Kingdom of Hungary, while Romania and Bohemia were allowed autonomy. However, the upper echelons of the bureaucracy of all of the states of the Federation was required to be Magyar speaking after reforms implemented in the spring of 1861. Rumours that the Hungarians planned a campaign against Silesia, who had stayed loyal to the Hapsburgs, and that they had plans to reduce the governments of Romania and Bohemia. While the first rumour was true, there is still no evidence that the latter was based on any concrete evidence. Still, the doubt was all that was needed, and the Austrian Chancellor Franz Karl used Hungarian mistakes to sow dissention in the Danubian Federation, while reforming what remained of the Austrian army for use in a future war with Hungary. Although much of the rest of Europe assumed that the “Gendarme of Europe” was down-and-out, circles close to the Austrian Kaiser and Chancellor now began planning the reunification of the Empire.
[1] - Venice’s possessions in the Adriatic are somewhat up in the air. The Austrians remain in occupation of Istria, and the Hungarians have moved into Dalmatia, but Greece has yet to do anything about the Ionian Islands.
* * * * * *
Somewhere along the Rhine, 10th October 1861
Somewhere along the Rhine, 10th October 1861
“My God, you could have warned us before sneaking upon us like that!”
Captain Wenzel Krauss gave the private a soft clip round the ear, meant more as a warning than serious chastisement.
“I’m sorry sir, I bring dispatches” The private reached into his haversack and gave a small piece of paper.
“Don’t worry yourself too much lad. We think that the French have sent Chasseurs over the river, so we are all somewhat on edge at the moment” explained Wenzel, somewhat absent-mindedly as he read over the message.
Wenzel handed the paper back to the Private. “Shit, well I suppose this means we didn’t come here for nothing”
“What is it sir?”
“It is for an officer to know. You best not make a habit of questioning officers my lad or you shall soon find yourself caned, though I suppose we should be thankful you didn’t read it on the way over. Wait here, I need to write up a response”
Captain Krauss entered his tent, and wrote his response to the Commandant.
Understood. In the event of attack, we shall hold our position. I want to forewarn that we are in lack of artillery support, and ammunition for some of our troops. Our fortification should hold against bombardment but it would not take many French troops to drive us out. I request reinforcements in the event of attack, as well as permission for measured withdrawals if needed.
Kraus looked over the paper. “Well, at least my arse is covered when the French swim over and destroy us. ‘Hold our position’? Leichter gesagt als getan…”
Krause emerged from his tent, and handed the boy a piece of paper. “Take this back to the Commandant will you?”
No sooner had the words left his lips, than the sound of drums in the distance was heard.
“That’s coming from the West!”
Wenzel and the private scrambled up onto a small observation post. The sight that lay before them was in equal measures awe inspiring and frightful. The French army, banners fluttering and in perfect formations seemed to be marching toward the pontoon bridges that they had built over the Rhine. The French drums signified that they were on the attack!
Wenzel nudged the private. “A magnificent sight for you boy. The French army in all its glory”
“I think I’ve shit myself sir…”
“Take the message to the Commandant. I want them to at least think I died bravely rather than for stupidity”
The private scrambled back down, and ran in the direction of the command post.
Wenzel shouted “To your posts men! The French are advancing!”
The soldiers scrambled to the parapets, rifles aimed in the direction of the French. They were still a good kilometre out of range across the river, though in the heart of every man there, the end was neigh.
* * * * * *
The Rhine Crisis
The Rhine Crisis
Although the French, led by the aggressive “Heir to Devaux”, Augustin de Forey, never crossed the Rhine during the “October Days”, they did at a number of times launch feint attacks, hopeful to provoke the Germans into firing first. However, the Germans maintained fire discipline, allowing French provocations to go unchallenged. Von Thielmann was hopeful that if the Germans could avoid open conflict with the French, the British and their impressive army and navy could be brought to bear, encouraging the French to back down from the brink of war. It was a dangerous game of brinksmanship, but Von Thielmann was of the opinion that backing down would result in his demise at the hands of leftist revolutionaries. A diplomatic victory and the securing of Germany would give him political capital to use against the conservatives, as well as the socialists who were quickly consolidating under the leadership of Friedrich Faber [2]. All-out war or peace would lead to collapse, but a carefully managed diplomatic crisis would be just what the German liberals needed to secure their position in the emerging political order. It was, as the later German Chancellor and Historian Ingrid Becker said, “Without doubt the most ridiculous gamble in German, and perhaps world history”.
However, as the autumn came to an end and winter set in, it appeared that Germany had been saved at least until the following year. Von Thielmann had finally arranged a meeting with the British Foreign Secretary, William Burns. The two signed the 1868 Anglo-German Alliance, which guaranteed that Britain would support Germany in the event that French troops were to cross the Rhine. At a stroke, this ensured that Germany’s army of 230,000 would be augmented by an expeditionary force of three British army corps. Not only that, but France’s 105 ships of the line would be outmatched by the 168 ships of the British Royal Navy, meaning that in the event of conflict, France would be cut off from her colonies. The confrontation with Germany was now becoming costly for France, but for reasons of prestige, King Louis felt that he could not back down. France deployed up to 400,000 men along the Rhine, threatening to crush the Germans with brute numbers. But having gambled this much, Von Thielmann was not ready to back down. The Anglo-German alliance now had to find a partner who would be enough to strong-arm France into a negotiated settlement which left Germany intact.
[2] – I’m going to avoid using confusing alternate terms for new inventions and political movements, so long as they’re sufficiently close to OTL equivalents. So while socialism isn’t exactly how it was in OTL (especially without Marx and Engels), TTL’s equivalent is similar enough to use the same name.
* * * * * *
Scandinavia During the Revolutions
Scandinavia During the Revolutions
Following the peace that set over Europe, Scandinavia enjoyed some measure of peace. Although efforts by both Sweden and Denmark to tie Norway in one way or another to their own countries were undertaken, the Norwegians quickly became accustomed to independence, and this had largely been accepted by the end of the 1830s. Sweden had spent a great deal of time concerned about the possibility of a Russian incursion into Finland, yet this did not happen. The Tsars of Russia proved far more concerned with expansion into richer areas than Finland, and felt relatively secure in the knowledge that they would be able to parry any possible Swedish assault on St Petersburg. Denmark too benefitted from the decades-long peace, with the increase in international trade in this era leading at a boom in Denmark’s agricultural economy. As demand in the United Kingdom increased, Denmark’s exports of livestock to Britain alone tripled between 1830 and 1860, producing a relative amount of prosperity in Denmark [3]. Despite the easy years that all three Scandinavian countries were enjoying however, there appeared to be storms looming on the horizon.
As the Copenhagen System began to collapse in Europe, the countries of Scandinavia now began to consider where their own positions would be in a Europe were “Might Made Right”, and where smaller countries seemed to be at the mercy of larger ones. In Denmark, the answer was to embrace the National Liberal answer of centralization, which brought it into conflict with the Germans of Schleswig and Holstein, two mostly German-speaking Duchies who had been attached the Denmark through a personal union for centuries. With Germany otherwise occupied facing France to the South, the Danes felt confident enough, with French support, to annex Schleswig into the Kingdom of Denmark proper, in a move that brought acclaim in Copenhagen and unrest in the former duchy [4]. The Scandinavianists, a movement mainly limited to academics and students in Norway, Denmark and Sweden were also lukewarm, arguing that Denmark’s future lay to the North in closer ties with her sister countries rather than in provoking the Germans to the South. However, the euphoria of success, especially as the Danish army proved effective against the insurgents who rose up in both duchies.
As the Danes won a decisive victory at Rendsburg and the insurgency in Schleswig began to peter out somewhat, the Scandinavian Conference of Gothenburg seemed to be something of an impotent show. Hopes for pan-Scandinavian cooperation seemed a dead letter as first the Danes, then the Swedes and Norway published constitutions with little reference to Scandinavianist ideas. The Scandinavian Conference, hoped to be a defining point in the construction of a pan-Scandinavian identity, ultimately was noted only by curious academics at the time. Perhaps with the wars and conflicts that were occurring simultaneously in other parts of Europe at the time, this would not come as a surprise.
[3] – Denmark may well rise economically as she did in OTL on the sale of those most haram of goods, beer and bacon.
[4] - The move of course which led to the 2nd Schleswig War in OTL. Well it won't without Prussia and Austria to teach those bullying Danes who's boss.
* * * * * *
Author's Notes - The antipathy of everyone else in Europe against the French may just be what gives the revolutionaries a chance to succeed in this whole game. Europe has done well to avoid war so far, but remains at a knife's edge, threatening to fall into a general war any time soon.
There's one update of the 1829-1862 cycle left, which I shall endeavour to finish before I travel to Bahrain.