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Suppose that Stephen Douglas were to win the presidency in 1860. I'm not sure exactly how he could defeat Lincoln in the North, but for the sake of argument, let's say he did. The South has about as much love for Douglas as they do for Lincoln, so we still see the original 7 Confederate states secede. From here, I posit two different scenarios:

1) Sumter occurs roughly as in OTL, leading to the secession of the last 4 Confederate states.

2) The conflict at Sumter is averted or prevented entirely, delaying the secession of the Upper South.

Please let me know which you think is more likely and why. Now, in both scenarios, let's say that Douglas dies of typhoid (or some other disease) in June 1861 as he did in OTL. His VP, Herschel Johnson, succeeds him as president. Johnson has torn loyalties, as he ostensibly opposes secession yet his home state of Georgia has already seceded. (Remember that in OTL, he became a Confederate senator of GA.)

So how does Johnson handle the war in either scenario? Does he prosecute the war or permit the seceded states to go their own way? What happens to the other slave states, including the border states of OTL? Do they stay in the Union, despite now being outnumbered even more greatly by free states, or do they join the CSA?

Share your thoughts on how all of this would most plausibly play out.
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