Douglas wins in 1860, dies June 1861

Suppose that Stephen Douglas were to win the presidency in 1860. I'm not sure exactly how he could defeat Lincoln in the North, but for the sake of argument, let's say he did. The South has about as much love for Douglas as they do for Lincoln, so we still see the original 7 Confederate states secede. From here, I posit two different scenarios:

1) Sumter occurs roughly as in OTL, leading to the secession of the last 4 Confederate states.

2) The conflict at Sumter is averted or prevented entirely, delaying the secession of the Upper South.

Please let me know which you think is more likely and why. Now, in both scenarios, let's say that Douglas dies of typhoid (or some other disease) in June 1861 as he did in OTL. His VP, Herschel Johnson, succeeds him as president. Johnson has torn loyalties, as he ostensibly opposes secession yet his home state of Georgia has already seceded. (Remember that in OTL, he became a Confederate senator of GA.)

So how does Johnson handle the war in either scenario? Does he prosecute the war or permit the seceded states to go their own way? What happens to the other slave states, including the border states of OTL? Do they stay in the Union, despite now being outnumbered even more greatly by free states, or do they join the CSA?

Share your thoughts on how all of this would most plausibly play out.
 
Douglas might not have been loved by the south, but he was not seen as a zealot abolitionist Republican who was out to free the slaves and let them run wild and rape all the white women. South Carolina and the other states seceded BECAUSE of Lincoln's election. You are not going to have the same result with a different cause. Leaving the union was an act of last resort and of desperation. It was a sort of preemptive strike against what southerners saw as an attack by the Republicans. They are not going to feel that desperate with Douglas as POTUS.
 

Abhakhazia

Banned
The only way I could see thus happining is the Presidential nomination for the Republican Party is split, for some sort internal reason and the Dems don't split (which is unlikely) leading to a Republican controlled Congress but a democratic president. The congress passed anti-slavery laws, leading to eventual Southern secession.
 
I'd just like to point out that typhoid has an incubation period of a matter of weeks, meaning Douglas in OTL contracted it well after the election -- in fact, well after Lincoln's inauguration. Which means that if Douglas is president his illness is almost certainly butterflied away and he survives.
 
The only way I could see thus happining is the Presidential nomination for the Republican Party is split, for some sort internal reason and the Dems don't split (which is unlikely) leading to a Republican controlled Congress but a democratic president. The congress passed anti-slavery laws, leading to eventual Southern secession.
seward vs Lincoln?
 
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