Stephen A. Douglas wins the election of 1860. How could this come about and what would his presidency be like? Would the Civil War occur during his presidency? If so, how do you think it would proceed under Douglas?
Civil War occurs, but blacks are worse off.
Stephen A. Douglas wins the election of 1860. How could this come about and what would his presidency be like? Would the Civil War occur during his presidency? If so, how do you think it would proceed under Douglas?
You'd need a completely different electoral system - either direct popular vote or electoral votes to be assigned proportionally. In that situation Douglas could win a runoff, or perhaps even without one if enough Breckenridge and Bell voters switched to him. '
But of course this requires such a big change that you might not even have the same candidates in 1860.
"For him to have a chance of winning in 1860 you need to prevent the split in the Democratic Party and to have Douglas as satisfactory to the South in 1860 as he would have been in, say, 1856."
I'm quoting this because this is just one of those historical myths that won't die.
Lincoln won absolute majorities in all but two of the states he carried, the two exceptions being California and Oregon, and he didn't need their electoral votes. There was only one candidate opposing Lincoln anyway in three of the largest states, New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. The Southern Democratic candidacy created a lot of drama but has no effect on the election.
The Democratic party had split into northern & southern factions, each with their own candidate, because many southern politicians had come to hate Douglas as being soft on the slavery issue. The only way I can see Douglas winning in 1860 is if the Democrats never split, though I'm at a loss for how the party split might be avoided. In that case, there would not be secession or a Civil War.
What if Breckenridge won?
Breckenridge would have a similar problem to Douglas and that he would not have much support in the north thought saying that he would be the more likely of the 2 to be elected in my opinion due to have a solid base of support.
I can see an argument that the three fusion tickets were a strategic mistake, since Pennsylvania, not New York, was the key state in the election, and even with Breckinridge also on the ballot, Douglas had a better chance of winning Pennsylvania than did Breckinridge by himself. New Jersey probably would have gone Democratic anyway. New York became the key swing state in the second half of the twentieth century due to the Democrats corralling immigrant voters, but Fremont had carried it, so a stop Lincoln in Pennsylvania strategy might well have made more sense.